Edge-Based Compartmental Modeling for Infectious Disease Spread Part III: Disease and Population Structure

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of Part I. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic detail or multiple types of risk behavior the disease to have more complicated natural history. We introduce these modifications in the static network context, though it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic networks. We also consider serosorting, which requires using the dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here

Fast variables determine the epidemic threshold in the pairwise model with an improved closure

Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks exhibiting degree heterogeneity, directed and/or weighted links and clustering. However, extra features of the disease dynamics or of the network lead to an increase in system size and analytical tractability becomes problematic. Various `closures' can be used to keep the system tractable. Focusing on SIR epidemics on regular but clustered networks, we show that even for the most complex closure we can determine the epidemic threshold as an asymptotic expansion in terms of the clustering coefficient.We do this by exploiting the presence of a system of fast variables, specified by the correlation structure of the epidemic, whose steady state determines the epidemic threshold. While we do not find the steady state analytically, we create an elegant asymptotic expansion of it. We validate this new threshold by comparing it to the numerical solution of the full system and find excellent agreement over a wide range of values of the clustering coefficient, transmission rate and average degree of the network. The technique carries over to pairwise models with other closures [1] and we note that the epidemic threshold will be model dependent. This emphasises the importance of model choice when dealing with realistic outbreaks

Beyond clustering: mean-field dynamics on networks with arbitrary subgraph composition

Clustering is the propensity of nodes that share a common neighbour to be connected. It is ubiquitous in many networks but poses many modelling challenges. Clustering typically manifests itself by a higher than expected frequency of triangles, and this has led to the principle of constructing networks from such building blocks. This approach has been generalised to networks being constructed from a set of more exotic subgraphs. As long as these are fully connected, it is then possible to derive mean-field models that approximate epidemic dynamics well. However, there are virtually no results for non-fully connected subgraphs. In this paper, we provide a general and automated approach to deriving a set of ordinary differential equations, or mean-field model, that describes, to a high degree of accuracy, the expected values of system-level quantities, such as the prevalence of infection. Our approach offers a previously unattainable degree of control over the arrangement of subgraphs and network characteristics such as classical node degree, variance and clustering. The combination of these features makes it possible to generate families of networks with different subgraph compositions while keeping classical network metrics constant. Using our approach, we show that higher-order structure realised either through the introduction of loops of different sizes or by generating networks based on different subgraphs but with identical degree distribution and clustering, leads to non-negligible differences in epidemic dynamics

Ensuring confidence in predictions: A scheme to assess the scientific validity of in silico models

The use of in silico tools within the drug development process to predict a wide range of properties including absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination and toxicity has become increasingly important due to changes in legislation and both ethical and economic drivers to reduce animal testing. Whilst in silico tools have been used for decades there remains reluctance to accept predictions based on these methods particularly in regulatory settings. This apprehension arises in part due to lack of confidence in the reliability, robustness and applicability of the models. To address this issue we propose a scheme for the verification of in silico models that enables end users and modellers to assess the scientific validity of models in accordance with the principles of good computer modelling practice. We report here the implementation of the scheme within the Innovative Medicines Initiative project “eTOX” (electronic toxicity) and its application to the in silico models developed within the frame of this project

Eulerian CFD modeling of nozzle geometry effects on ECN Sprays A and D: assessment and analysis

This is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Engine Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published as https://doi.org/10.1177/1468087419882500.[EN] Diesel spray modeling is a multi-scale problem with complex interactions between different flow regions, that is, internal nozzle flow, near-nozzle region and developed spray, including evaporation and combustion. There are several modeling approaches that have proven particularly useful for some spray regions although they have struggled at other areas, while Eulerian modeling has shown promise in dealing with all characteristics at a reasonable computational effort for engineering calculations. In this work, the sigma -Y single-fluid diffuse-interface model, based on scale separation assumptions at high Reynolds and Weber numbers, is used to simulate the engine combustion network Sprays A and D within a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence modeling approach. The study is divided into two parts. First of all, the larger diameter Spray D is modeled from the nozzle flow till evaporative spray conditions, obtaining successful prediction of numerous spray metrics, paying special attention to the near-nozzle region where spray dispersion and interfacial surface area can be validated against measurements conducted at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory, including both the ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering and the X-ray radiography. Afterwards, an analysis of the modeling predictions is made in comparison with previous results obtained for Spray A, considering the nozzle geometry effects in the modeling behavior.The authors thank the freely shared X-ray radiography and ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering measurements performed at Argonne National Laboratory by the following authors: Daniel J. Duke, Jan Ilavsky, Katarzyna E. Matusik., Brandon A. Sforzo., Alan L. Kastengren and Christopher F. Powell. They also thankfully acknowledge the computer resources at Picasso and the technical support provided by Universidad de Malaga (UMA; RES-FI-2018-1-0039).Pandal, A.; García-Oliver, JM.; Pastor Enguídanos, JM. (2020). Eulerian CFD modeling of nozzle geometry effects on ECN Sprays A and D: assessment and analysis. International Journal of Engine Research. 21(1):73-88. https://doi.org/10.1177/1468087419882500S7388211PAYRI, R., GARCIA, J., SALVADOR, F., & GIMENO, J. (2005). Using spray momentum flux measurements to understand the influence of diesel nozzle geometry on spray characteristics. Fuel, 84(5), 551-561. doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2004.10.009Payri, R., Salvador, F. J., Gimeno, J., & Zapata, L. D. (2008). Diesel nozzle geometry influence on spray liquid-phase fuel penetration in evaporative conditions. Fuel, 87(7), 1165-1176. doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2007.05.058Payri, R., Salvador, F. J., Gimeno, J., & de la Morena, J. (2009). Effects of nozzle geometry on direct injection diesel engine combustion process. Applied Thermal Engineering, 29(10), 2051-2060. doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2008.10.009Payri, F., Payri, R., Salvador, F. J., & Martínez-López, J. (2012). A contribution to the understanding of cavitation effects in Diesel injector nozzles through a combined experimental and computational investigation. Computers & Fluids, 58, 88-101. doi:10.1016/j.compfluid.2012.01.005Kastengren, A. L., Powell, C. F., Wang, Y., Im, K.-S., & Wang, J. (2009). X-RAY RADIOGRAPHY MEASUREMENTS OF DIESEL SPRAY STRUCTURE AT ENGINE-LIKE AMBIENT DENSITY. Atomization and Sprays, 19(11), 1031-1044. doi:10.1615/atomizspr.v19.i11.30Pickett, L. M., Manin, J., Kastengren, A., & Powell, C. (2014). Comparison of Near-Field Structure and Growth of a Diesel Spray Using Light-Based Optical Microscopy and X-Ray Radiography. SAE International Journal of Engines, 7(2), 1044-1053. doi:10.4271/2014-01-1412Dahms, R. N., Manin, J., Pickett, L. M., & Oefelein, J. C. (2013). Understanding high-pressure gas-liquid interface phenomena in Diesel engines. Proceedings of the Combustion Institute, 34(1), 1667-1675. doi:10.1016/j.proci.2012.06.169Arienti, M., & Sussman, M. (2017). A numerical study of the thermal transient in high-pressure diesel injection. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 88, 205-221. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2016.09.017Vallet, A., Burluka, A. A., & Borghi, R. (2001). DEVELOPMENT OF A EULERIAN MODEL FOR THE «ATOMIZATION» OF A LIQUID JET. 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M., Pastor, J. M., Pandal, A., Baldwin, E., & Schmidt, D. P. (2016). Coupled/decoupled spray simulation comparison of the ECN spray a condition with the -Y Eulerian atomization model. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 80, 89-99. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2015.12.002Garcia-Oliver, J. M., Pastor, J. M., Pandal, A., Trask, N., Baldwin, E., & Schmidt, D. P. (2013). DIESEL SPRAY CFD SIMULATIONS BASED ON THE Σ-Υ EULERIAN ATOMIZATION MODEL. Atomization and Sprays, 23(1), 71-95. doi:10.1615/atomizspr.2013007198Navarro-Martinez, S. (2014). Large eddy simulation of spray atomization with a probability density function method. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 63, 11-22. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2014.02.013Pandal, A., Pastor, J. M., García-Oliver, J. M., Baldwin, E., & Schmidt, D. P. (2016). A consistent, scalable model for Eulerian spray modeling. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 83, 162-171. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2016.04.003Pandal, A., Payri, R., García-Oliver, J. M., & Pastor, J. M. (2017). Optimization of spray break-up CFD simulations by combining Σ-Y Eulerian atomization model with a response surface methodology under diesel engine-like conditions (ECN Spray A). Computers & Fluids, 156, 9-20. doi:10.1016/j.compfluid.2017.06.022Pandal, A., García-Oliver, J. M., Novella, R., & Pastor, J. M. (2018). A computational analysis of local flow for reacting Diesel sprays by means of an Eulerian CFD model. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 99, 257-272. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2017.10.010Payri, R., Ruiz, S., Gimeno, J., & Martí-Aldaraví, P. (2015). Verification of a new CFD compressible segregated and multi-phase solver with different flux updates-equations sequences. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 39(2), 851-861. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2014.07.011Salvador, F. J., Gimeno, J., Pastor, J. M., & Martí-Aldaraví, P. (2014). Effect of turbulence model and inlet boundary condition on the Diesel spray behavior simulated by an Eulerian Spray Atomization (ESA) model. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 65, 108-116. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2014.06.003Demoulin, F.-X., Beau, P.-A., Blokkeel, G., Mura, A., & Borghi, R. (2007). A NEW MODEL FOR TURBULENT FLOWS WITH LARGE DENSITY FLUCTUATIONS: APPLICATION TO LIQUID ATOMIZATION. Atomization and Sprays, 17(4), 315-345. doi:10.1615/atomizspr.v17.i4.20Pandal, A., Pastor, J. M., Payri, R., Kastengren, A., Duke, D., Matusik, K., … Schmidt, D. (2017). Computational and Experimental Investigation of Interfacial Area in Near-Field Diesel Spray Simulation. SAE International Journal of Fuels and Lubricants, 10(2), 423-431. doi:10.4271/2017-01-0859Weller, H. G., Tabor, G., Jasak, H., & Fureby, C. (1998). A tensorial approach to computational continuum mechanics using object-oriented techniques. 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International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 55, 130-137. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2013.05.004Gimeno, J., Bracho, G., Martí-Aldaraví, P., & Peraza, J. E. (2016). Experimental study of the injection conditions influence over n-dodecane and diesel sprays with two ECN single-hole nozzles. Part I: Inert atmosphere. Energy Conversion and Management, 126, 1146-1156. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2016.07.077Kastengren, A., Ilavsky, J., Viera, J. P., Payri, R., Duke, D. J., Swantek, A., … Powell, C. F. (2017). Measurements of droplet size in shear-driven atomization using ultra-small angle x-ray scattering. International Journal of Multiphase Flow, 92, 131-139. doi:10.1016/j.ijmultiphaseflow.2017.03.005Kastengren, A. L., Tilocco, F. Z., Powell, C. F., Manin, J., Pickett, L. M., Payri, R., & Bazyn, T. (2012). ENGINE COMBUSTION NETWORK (ECN): MEASUREMENTS OF NOZZLE GEOMETRY AND HYDRAULIC BEHAVIOR. Atomization and Sprays, 22(12), 1011-1052. doi:10.1615/atomizspr.2013006309Matusik, K. E., Duke, D. 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La formación docente ante el trastorno del espectro autista

Teacher training in learning disorders is vital to achieve a true competence and inclusive education and physical activity acquires special significance. The objective of this study was to assess the training that teachers have active on students with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and what factors can influence the improvement of teaching practice. The sample consists of a total of 68 teachers from different public schools in the province of Toledo (CLM). An ad hoc questionnaire based on scientific literature and reviewed by experts was used. The results show how there is little training regarding the treatment of students with special educational needs and ASD students. Enhance the support within the classroom to the teacher and have more number and availability of intervention programs appropriate to each type of educational need, will serve to alleviate the possible shortcomings in this regard.La formación docente en trastornos del aprendizaje es vital para alcanzar una verdadera educación competencial e inclusiva y la actividad física adquiere especial significado. El objetivo del presente estudio fue valorar la formación que tienen los docentes en activo sobre el alumnado con Trastorno del Espectro Autista (TEA) y qué factores pueden influir en la mejora de la práctica docente. La muestra está formada por un total de 68 docentes de diferentes centros educativos públicos de la provincia de Toledo (CLM). Se utilizó un cuestionario ad hoc basado en la literatura científica y revisado por expertos. Los resultados muestran como existe una escasa formación respecto al tratamiento del alumnado con necesidades educativas especiales y alumnos TEA. Potenciar el apoyo dentro del aula al docente y disponer de mayor número y disponibilidad de programas de intervención adecuados a cada tipo de necesidad educativa, servirá para paliar las posibles carencias al respecto

Estereotipos de género en educación física

The school, and the Physical Education may become as one of the setting where with the so-called hidden curriculum, attitudes loaded with prejudices, in terms of gender stereotyped, could be shown.  The main objective of our study was to identify the perception of primary school students between 11 and 12 years old (11.87 ± 0.38) about gender stereotypes linked to physical activity and sport, based on sub-stereotypes associated with the type of practice , regarding the teaching staff and classroom climate. The main results show the presence of stereotypes related to performance, self-concept and treatment by teachers. From the school and from the area of Physical Education, we must bear in mind these situations that we must reorient to achieve a true inclusive school and society that allows equal opportunities.La escuela y en particular el área de Educación Física, puede ser uno de los escenarios donde, bajo el denominado currículum oculto, se pongan de manifiesto actitudes estereotipadas y cargadas de prejuicios desde el punto de vista deportivo y motor. El objetivo principal de nuestro estudio fue identificar la percepción de los escolares de Educación Primaria entre los 11 y 12 años (11.87± 0.38) sobre los estereotipos de género vinculados con la actividad física y el deporte, a partir de subestereotipos asociados al tipo de práctica, respecto al profesorado y a clima de clase. Los principales resultados muestran la presencia de estereotipos relacionados con el rendimiento, el autoconcepto y el trato por parte del profesorado. Desde la escuela y desde el área de Educación Física se debe tener muy presente estas situaciones que debemos reorientar para lograr una verdadera escuela inclusiva y sociedad que permita la igualdad de oportunidades

A monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period and final size in pairwise epidemic modelling

For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the distribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time leads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic outbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result is related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious periods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic simulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks

Los descansos activos y la mejora de los aprendizajes en educación infantil: una propuesta de intervención

The objective of this work is the study of the relationship between active breaks and academic performance in children preschool education, improving the curricular contents, through physical education games. The sample was formed by 50 participants, divided into a control group (n = 25) and an experimental group (n = 25). For the data collection, two evaluations were conducted, one before the programme (pre) and the other one after the programme (post). For the data analysis the t-Student test was used. The results obtained reflected the importance of physical activity in academic performance, as well as the transversal benefits it brings to health.El objetivo de este trabajo es el estudio de la relación entre los descansos activos y el rendimiento académico en niños del segundo ciclo de educación infantil, mejorando los diversos contenidos curriculares, a través de juegos de Educación Física. La muestra estuvo compuesta por un total de 50 alumnos, divididos en grupo control (n=25) y un grupo experimental (n=25). Para la recopilación de datos se llevaron a cabo dos evaluaciones, una antes de la realización de los descansos activos, pre-test y otra posterior, post-test. Para el análisis de datos se utilizó la prueba t-Student, para medias de muestras relacionadas. Los resultados obtenidos reflejaron la importancia de la actividad física en el rendimiento académico, así como los beneficios transversales que aporta a la salud

Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks

This paper introduces a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model to epidemics where the transmission and recovery processes are driven by general independent probability distributions. Edge-based compartmental modelling is just one of many different approaches used to model the spread of an infectious disease on a network; the major result of this paper is the rigorous proof that the edge-based compartmental model and the message passing models are equivalent for general independent transmission and recovery processes. This implies that the new model is exact on the ensemble of configuration model networks of infinite size. For the case of Markovian transmission themessage passing model is re-parametrised into a pairwise-like model which is then used to derive many well-known pairwise models for regular networks, or when the infectious period is exponentially distributed or is of a fixed length