Epic Human Failure on June 30, 2013

Nineteen Prescott Fire Department, Granite Mountain Hot Shot (GMHS) wildland firefighters and supervisors (WFF), perished on the June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire (YHF) in Arizona. The firefighters left their Safety Zone during forecast, outflow winds, triggering explosive fire behavior in drought-stressed chaparral. Why would an experienced WFF Crew, leave ‘good black’ and travel downslope through a brush-filled chimney, contrary to their training and experience? An organized Serious Accident Investigation Team (SAIT) found, “… no indication of negligence, reckless actions, or violations of policy or protocol.” Despite this, many WFF professionals deemed the catastrophe, “… the final, fatal link, in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes.” This paper is a theoretical and realistic examination of plausible, faulty, human decisions with prior good outcomes; internal and external impacts, influencing the GMHS; and two explanations for this catastrophe: Individual Blame Logic and Organizational Function Logic, and proposed preventive mitigations

Immune profiling of pediatric solid tumors

Pediatric cancers, particularly high-risk solid tumors, urgently need effective and specific therapies. Their outlook has not appreciably improved in decades. Immunotherapies such as immune checkpoint inhibitors offer much promise, but most are only approved for use in adults. Though several hundred clinical trials have tested immune-based approaches in childhood cancers, few have been guided by biomarkers or clinical-grade assays developed to predict patient response and, ultimately, to help select those most likely to benefit. There is extensive evidence in adults to show that immune profiling has substantial predictive value, but few studies focus on childhood tumors, because of the relatively small disease population and restricted use of immune-based therapies. For instance, only one published study has retrospectively examined the immune profiles of pediatric brain tumors after immunotherapy. Furthermore, application and integration of advanced multiplex techniques has been extremely limited. Here, we review the current status of immune profiling of pediatric solid tumors, with emphasis on tumor types that represent enormous unmet clinical need, primarily in the context of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. Translating optimized and informative immune profiling into standard practice and access to personalized combination therapy will be critical if childhood cancers are to be treated effectively and affordably

Helicobacter pylori and cancer among adults in Uganda

Data from Africa on infection with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) are sparse. Therefore, as part of an epidemiological study of cancer in Uganda, we investigated the prevalence and determinants of antibodies against H. pylori among 854 people with different cancer types and benign tumours. Patients were recruited from hospitals in Kampala, Uganda, interviewed about various demographic and lifestyle factors and tested for antibodies against H. pylori. In all patients combined, excluding those with stomach cancer (which has been associated with H. pylori infection), the prevalence of antibodies was 87% (723/833) overall, but declined with increasing age (p = 0.02) and was lower among people who were HIV seropositive compared to seronegative (p <0.001). Otherwise, there were few consistent epidemiological associations. Among those with stomach cancer, 18/21 (86%) had anti-H. pylori antibodies (odds ratio 0.8, 95% confidence intervals 0.2–2.9, p = 0.7; estimated using all other patients as controls, with adjustment for age, sex and HIV serostatus). No other cancer site or type was significantly associated with anti-H. pylori antibodies. The prevalence of H. pylori reported here is broadly in accord with results from other developing countries, although the determinants of infection and its' role in the aetiology of gastric cancer in Uganda remain unclear

Primary prevention of beta-cell autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes - The Global Platform for the Prevention of Autoimmune Diabetes (GPPAD) perspectives.

OBJECTIVE: Type 1 diabetes can be identified by the presence of beta-cell autoantibodies that often arise in the first few years of life. The purpose of this perspective is to present the case for primary prevention of beta-cell autoimmunity and to provide a study design for its implementation in Europe. METHODS: We examined and summarized recruitment strategies, enrollment rates, and outcomes in published TRIGR, FINDIA and BABYDIET primary prevention trials, and the TEDDY intensive observational study. A proposal for a recruitment and implementation strategy to perform a phase II/III primary prevention randomized controlled trial in infants with genetic risk for developing beta-cell autoimmunity is outlined. RESULTS: Infants with a family history of type 1 diabetes (TRIGR, BABYDIET, TEDDY) and infants younger than age 3 months from the general population (FINDIA, TEDDY) were enrolled into these studies. All studies used HLA genotyping as part of their eligibility criteria. Predicted beta-cell autoimmunity risk in the eligible infants ranged from 3% (FINDIA, TEDDY general population) up to 12% (TRIGR, BABYDIET). Amongst eligible infants, participation was between 38% (TEDDY general population) and 97% (FINDIA). Outcomes, defined as multiple beta-cell autoantibodies, were consistent with predicted risks. We subsequently modeled recruitment into a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that could assess the efficacy of oral insulin treatment as adapted from the Pre-POINT pilot trial. The RCT would recruit infants with and without a first-degree family history of type 1 diabetes and be based on general population genetic risk testing. HLA genotyping and, for the general population, genotyping at additional type 1 diabetes susceptibility SNPs would be used to identify children with around 10% risk of beta-cell autoimmunity. The proposed RCT would have 80% power to detect a 50% reduction in multiple beta-cell autoantibodies by age 4 years at a two-tailed alpha of 0.05, and would randomize around 1160 infants to oral insulin or placebo arms in order to fulfill this. It is estimated that recruitment would require testing of between 400,000 and 500,000 newborns or infants. CONCLUSION: It is timely and feasible to establish a platform for primary prevention trials for type 1 diabetes in Europe. This multi-site European infrastructure would perform RCTs, supply data coordination and biorepository, provide cohorts for mechanistic and observational studies, and increase awareness for autoimmune diabetes.This work was supported by The Leona M. & Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust Grants #2015PG-T1D072 and #2015PG-T1D071.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.molmet.2016.02.00

Patients’ use of information about medicine side effects in relation to experiences of suspected adverse drug reactions

Background Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are common, and information about medicines is increasingly widely available to the public. However, relatively little work has explored how people use medicines information to help them assess symptoms that may be suspected ADRs. Objective Our objective was to determine how patients use patient information leaflets (PILs) or other medicines information sources and whether information use differs depending on experiences of suspected ADRs. Method This was a cross-sectional survey conducted in six National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in North West England involving medical in-patients taking at least two regular medicines prior to admission. The survey was administered via a questionnaire and covered use of the PIL and other medicines information sources, perceived knowledge about medicines risks/ADRs, experiences of suspected ADRs, plus demographic information. Results Of the 1,218 respondents to the survey, 18.8 % never read the PIL, whilst 6.5 % only do so if something unexpected happens. Educational level was related to perceived knowledge about medicines risks, but not to reading the PIL or seeking further information about medicines risks. Over half the respondents (56.0 %) never sought more information about possible side effects of medicines. A total of 57.2 % claimed they had experienced a suspected ADR. Of these 85.9 % were either very sure or fairly sure this was a reaction to a medicine. Over half of those experiencing a suspected ADR (53.8 %) had read the PIL, of whom 36.2 % did so before the suspected ADR occurred, the remainder afterwards. Reading the PIL helped 84.8 % of these respondents to decide they had experienced an ADR. Educational level, general knowledge of medicines risks and number of regular medicines used all increased the likelihood of experiencing an ADR. Conclusion More patients should be encouraged to read the PIL supplied with medicines. The results support the view that most patients feel knowledgeable about medicines risks and suspected ADRs and value information about side effects, but that reading about side effects in PILs or other medicines information sources does not lead to experiences of suspected ADRs

Antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) protein in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals indicate high risk for impaired Beta-cell function

A prospective study of a normal childhood population identified 44 islet cell antibody positive individuals. These subjects were typed for HLA DR and DQ alleles and investigated for the presence of antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) islet cell antigen, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and radiobinding insulin autoantibodies to determine their potency in detecting subjects with impaired Beta-cell function. At initial testing 64K antibodies were found in six of 44 islet cell antibody positive subjects (13.6%). The same sera were also positive for complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and five of them had insulin autoantibodies. During the follow-up at 18 months, islet cell antibodies remained detectable in 50% of the subjects studied. In all six cases who were originally positive, 64K antibodies were persistently detectable, whereas complement-fixing islet cell antibodies became negative in two of six and insulin autoantibodies in one of five individuals. HLA DR4 (p < 0.005) and absence of asparic acid (Asp) at position 57 of the HLA DQ chain (p < 0.05) were significantly increased in subjects with 64K antibodies compared with control subjects. Of 40 individuals tested in the intravenous glucose tolerance test, three had a first phase insulin response below the first percentile of normal control subjects. Two children developed Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus after 18 and 26 months, respectively. Each of these subjects was non-Asp homozygous and had persistent islet cell and 64K antibodies. We conclude that 64K antibodies, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and insulin autoantibodies represent sensitive serological markers in assessing high risk for a progression to Type 1 diabetes in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals

The origin of defects induced in ultra-pure germanium by Electron Beam Deposition

The creation of point defects in the crystal lattices of various semiconductors by subthreshold events has been reported on by a number of groups. These observations have been made in great detail using sensitive electrical techniques but there is still much that needs to be clarified. Experiments using Ge and Si were performed that demonstrate that energetic particles, the products of collisions in the electron beam, were responsible for the majority of electron-beam deposition (EBD) induced defects in a two-step energy transfer process. Lowering the number of collisions of these energetic particles with the semiconductor during metal deposition was accomplished using a combination of static shields and superior vacuum resulting in devices with defect concentrations lower than $10^{11}\,$cm$^{-3}$, the measurement limit of our deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS) system. High energy electrons and photons that samples are typically exposed to were not influenced by the shields as most of these particles originate at the metal target thus eliminating these particles as possible damage causing agents. It remains unclear how packets of energy that can sometimes be as small of 2eV travel up to a $\mu$m into the material while still retaining enough energy, that is, in the order of 1eV, to cause changes in the crystal. The manipulation of this defect causing phenomenon may hold the key to developing defect free material for future applications.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure

Determination of Pericardial Adipose Tissue Increases the Prognostic Accuracy of Coronary Artery Calcification for Future Cardiovascular Events

Objectives: Pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) is associated with coronary artery plaque accumulation and the incidence of coronary heart disease. We evaluated the possible incremental prognostic value of PAT for future cardiovascular events. Methods: 145 patients (94 males, age 60 10 years) with stable coronary artery disease underwent coronary artery calcification (CAC) scanning in a multislice CT scanner, and the volume of pericardial fat was measured. Mean observation time was 5.4 years. Results: 34 patients experienced a severe cardiac event. They had a significantly higher CAC score (1,708 +/- 2,269 vs. 538 +/- 1,150, p 400, 3.5 (1.9-5.4; p = 0.007) for scores > 800 and 5.9 (3.7-7.8; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. When additionally a PAT volume > 200 cm(3) was determined, there was a significant increase in the event rate and relative risk. We calculated a relative risk of 2.9 (1.9-4.2; p = 0.01) for scores > 400, 4.0 (2.1-5.0; p = 0.006) for scores > 800 and 7.1 (4.1-10.2; p = 0.005) for scores > 1,600. Conclusions:The additional determination of PAT increases the predictive power of CAC for future cardiovascular events. PAT might therefore be used as a further parameter for risk stratification. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Donation Crowdfunding : Principles and Donor Behaviour

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Suizidprävention: Vorgehensweisen und Wirksamkeit

According to official statistics every year 11,000 persons in Germany die from suicide. 20 years ago nearly 19,000 suicides were registered. What are the causes for this decrease? Do suicide preventive measures contribute to the reduction of suicide rates? Different universal prevention strategies ( e. g. restriction of access to means) and selective approaches ( programs for special high-risk groups; e. g. patients after attempted suicide) are presented and discussed regarding their preventive value. In most cases it is hardly possible to scientifically prove the efficacy of suicide prevention strategies. Neither the role of psychosocial interventions nor the impact of psychotropic agents can be sufficiently quantified. Due to various methodological reasons ( e. g. small sample sizes and the lack of randomization), interpretation of the data is difficult. In terms of a comprehensive approach of suicide prevention a combination of different activities should be most adequate in the long run