Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010-2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India

Early acquisition and high nasopharyngeal co-colonisation by Streptococcus pneumoniae and three respiratory pathogens amongst Gambian new-borns and infants

BACKGROUND: Although Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), Staphylococcus aureus and Moraxella catarrhalis are important causes of invasive and mucosal bacterial disease among children, co-carriage with Streptococcus pneumoniae during infancy has not been determined in West Africa. METHODS: Species specific PCR was applied to detect each microbe using purified genomic DNA from 498 nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs collected from 30 Gambian neonates every two weeks from 0 to 6 months and bi-monthly up to 12 months. RESULTS: All infants carried S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis at several time points during infancy. S.pneumoniae co-colonized the infant nasopharynx with at least one other pathogen nine out of ten times. There was early colonization of the newborns and neonates, the average times to first detection were 5, 7, 3 and 14 weeks for S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae, M. catarrhalis and S. aureus respectively. The prevalence of S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and M. catarrhalis increased among the neonates and exceeded 80% by 13, 15 and 23 weeks respectively. In contrast, the prevalence of S. aureus decreased from 50% among the newborns to 20% amongst nine-week old neonates. S. pneumoniae appeared to have a strong positive association with H. influenzae (OR 5.03; 95% CI 3.02, 8.39; p<0.01) and M. catarrhalis (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.29; p<0.01) but it was negatively associated with S. aureus (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.30, 0.94; p=0.03). CONCLUSION: This study shows early acquisition and high co-carriage of three important respiratory pathogens with S. pneumoniae in the nasopharyngeal mucosa among Gambian neonates and infants. This has important potential implications for the aetiology of respiratory polymicrobial infections, biofilm formation and vaccine strategies

Extended Driving Impairs Nocturnal Driving Performances

Though fatigue and sleepiness at the wheel are well-known risk factors for traffic accidents, many drivers combine extended driving and sleep deprivation. Fatigue-related accidents occur mainly at night but there is no experimental data available to determine if the duration of prior driving affects driving performance at night. Participants drove in 3 nocturnal driving sessions (3–5am, 1–5am and 9pm–5am) on open highway. Fourteen young healthy men (mean age [±SD] = 23.4 [±1.7] years) participated Inappropriate line crossings (ILC) in the last hour of driving of each session, sleep variables, self-perceived fatigue and sleepiness were measured. Compared to the short (3–5am) driving session, the incidence rate ratio of inappropriate line crossings increased by 2.6 (95% CI, 1.1 to 6.0; P<.05) for the intermediate (1–5am) driving session and by 4.0 (CI, 1.7 to 9.4; P<.001) for the long (9pm–5am) driving session. Compared to the reference session (9–10pm), the incidence rate ratio of inappropriate line crossings were 6.0 (95% CI, 2.3 to 15.5; P<.001), 15.4 (CI, 4.6 to 51.5; P<.001) and 24.3 (CI, 7.4 to 79.5; P<.001), respectively, for the three different durations of driving. Self-rated fatigue and sleepiness scores were both positively correlated to driving impairment in the intermediate and long duration sessions (P<.05) and increased significantly during the nocturnal driving sessions compared to the reference session (P<.01). At night, extended driving impairs driving performances and therefore should be limited

Timing of host feeding drives rhythms in parasite replication

Circadian rhythms enable organisms to synchronise the processes underpinning survival and reproduction to anticipate daily changes in the external environment. Recent work shows that daily (circadian) rhythms also enable parasites to maximise fitness in the context of ecological interactions with their hosts. Because parasite rhythms matter for their fitness, understanding how they are regulated could lead to innovative ways to reduce the severity and spread of diseases. Here, we examine how host circadian rhythms influence rhythms in the asexual replication of malaria parasites. Asexual replication is responsible for the severity of malaria and fuels transmission of the disease, yet, how parasite rhythms are driven remains a mystery. We perturbed feeding rhythms of hosts by 12 hours (i.e. diurnal feeding in nocturnal mice) to desynchronise the hosts' peripheral oscillators from the central, light-entrained oscillator in the brain and their rhythmic outputs. We demonstrate that the rhythms of rodent malaria parasites in day-fed hosts become inverted relative to the rhythms of parasites in night-fed hosts. Our results reveal that the hosts' peripheral rhythms (associated with the timing of feeding and metabolism), but not rhythms driven by the central, light-entrained circadian oscillator in the brain, determine the timing (phase) of parasite rhythms. Further investigation reveals that parasite rhythms correlate closely with blood glucose rhythms. In addition, we show that parasite rhythms resynchronise to the altered host feeding rhythms when food availability is shifted, which is not mediated through rhythms in the host immune system. Our observations suggest that parasites actively control their developmental rhythms. Finally, counter to expectation, the severity of disease symptoms expressed by hosts was not affected by desynchronisation of their central and peripheral rhythms. Our study at the intersection of disease ecology and chronobiology opens up a new arena for studying host-parasite-vector coevolution and has broad implications for applied bioscience

Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends

Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing extreme event probability. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of mid-atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis, we detect robust pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979–2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea ice decline (1990–2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer/autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence, and/or maximum duration of regional circulation patterns

Employers' views on the promotion of workplace health and wellbeing: A qualitative study

Background: The evidence surrounding the value of workplace health promotion in positively influencing employees' health and wellbeing via changes to their health behaviours is growing. The aim of the study was to explore employers' views on the promotion of workplace health and wellbeing and the factors affecting these views. Methods: Using a qualitative phenomenological approach, 10 focus groups were conducted with employers selected from a range of industries and geographical locations within Western Australia. The total sample size was 79. Results: Three factors were identified: employers' conceptualization of workplace health and wellbeing; employers' descriptions of (un)healthy workers and perceptions surrounding the importance of healthy workers; and employers' beliefs around the role the workplace should play in influencing health. Conclusions: Progress may be viable in promoting health and wellbeing if a multifaceted approach is employed taking into account the complex factors influencing employers' views. This could include an education campaign providing information about what constitutes health and wellbeing beyond the scope of occupational health and safety paradigms along with information on the benefits of workplace health and wellbeing aligned with perceptions relating to healthy and unhealthy workers

Reductions in malaria and anaemia case and death burden at hospitals following scale-up of malaria control in Zanzibar, 1999-2008

Background: In Zanzibar, the Ministry of Health and partners accelerated malaria control from September 2003 onwards. The impact of the scale-up of insecticide-treated nets (ITN), indoor-residual spraying (IRS) and artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) combined on malaria burden was assessed at six out of seven in-patient health facilities. Methods. Numbers of outpatient and inpatient cases and deaths were compared between 2008 and the pre-intervention period 1999-2003. Reductions were estimated by segmented log-linear regression, adjusting the effect size for time trends during the pre-intervention period. Results: In 2008, for all age groups combined, malaria deaths had fallen by an estimated 90% (95% confidence interval 55-98%)(p < 0.025), malaria in-patient cases by 78% (48-90%), and parasitologically- confirmed malaria out-patient cases by 99.5% (92-99.9%). Anaemia in-patient cases decreased by 87% (57-96%); anaemia deaths and out-patient cases declined without reaching statistical significance due to small numbers. Reductions were similar for children under-five and older ages. Among under-fives, the proportion of all-cause deaths due to malaria fell from 46% in 1999-2003 to 12% in 2008 (p < 0.01) and that for anaemia from 26% to 4% (p < 0.01). Cases and deaths due to other causes fluctuated or increased over 1999-2008, without consistent difference in the trend before and after 2003. Conclusions: Scaling-up effective malaria interventions reduced malaria-related burden at health facilities by over 75% within 5 years. In high-malaria settings, intensified malaria control can substantially contribute to reaching the Millennium Development Goal 4 target of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015

Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm

Background: Data on causes of death by age and sex are a critical input into health decision-making. Priority setting in public health should be informed not only by the current magnitude of health problems but by trends in them. However, cause of death data are often not available or are subject to substantial problems of comparability. We propose five general principles for cause of death model development, validation, and reporting.Methods: We detail a specific implementation of these principles that is embodied in an analytical tool - the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) - which explores a large variety of possible models to estimate trends in causes of death. Possible models are identified using a covariate selection algorithm that yields many plausible combinations of covariates, which are then run through four model classes. The model classes include mixed effects linear models and spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression models for cause fractions and death rates. All models for each cause of death are then assessed using out-of-sample predictive validity and combined into an ensemble with optimal out-of-sample predictive performance.Results: Ensemble models for cause of death estimation outperform any single component model in tests of root mean square error, frequency of predicting correct temporal trends, and achieving 95% coverage of the prediction interval. We present detailed results for CODEm applied to maternal mortality and summary results for several other causes of death, including cardiovascular disease and several cancers.Conclusions: CODEm produces better estimates of cause of death trends than previous methods and is less susceptible to bias in model specification. We demonstrate the utility of CODEm for the estimation of several major causes of death