Evaluating Surveillance Strategies for the Early Detection of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Infections

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (Rh). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas Rh reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected

The Transmissibility of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial Poultry in Industrialised Countries

BACKGROUND: With the increased occurrence of outbreaks of H5N1 worldwide there is concern that the virus could enter commercial poultry farms with severe economic consequences. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyse data from four recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry to estimate the farm-to-farm reproductive number for HPAI. The reproductive number is a key measure of the transmissibility of HPAI at the farm level because it can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures. In these outbreaks the mean farm-to-farm reproductive number prior to controls ranged from 1.1 to 2.4, with the maximum farm-based reproductive number in the range 2.2 to 3.2. Enhanced bio-security, movement restrictions and prompt isolation of the infected farms in all four outbreaks substantially reduced the reproductive number, but it remained close to the threshold value 1 necessary to ensure the disease will be eradicated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that depending on the particular situation in which an outbreak of avian influenza occurs, current controls might not be enough to eradicate the disease, and therefore a close monitoring of the outbreak is required. The method we used for estimating the reproductive number is straightforward to implement and can be used in real-time. It therefore can be a useful tool to inform policy decisions

Endocytosis of the Anthrax Toxin Is Mediated by Clathrin, Actin and Unconventional Adaptors

The anthrax toxin is a tripartite toxin, where the two enzymatic subunits require the third subunit, the protective antigen (PA), to interact with cells and be escorted to their cytoplasmic targets. PA binds to cells via one of two receptors, TEM8 and CMG2. Interestingly, the toxin times and triggers its own endocytosis, in particular through the heptamerization of PA. Here we show that PA triggers the ubiquitination of its receptors in a β-arrestin-dependent manner and that this step is required for clathrin-mediated endocytosis. In addition, we find that endocytosis is dependent on the heterotetrameric adaptor AP-1 but not the more conventional AP-2. Finally, we show that endocytosis of PA is strongly dependent on actin. Unexpectedly, actin was also found to be essential for efficient heptamerization of PA, but only when bound to one of its 2 receptors, TEM8, due to the active organization of TEM8 into actin-dependent domains. Endocytic pathways are highly modular systems. Here we identify some of the key players that allow efficient heptamerization of PA and subsequent ubiquitin-dependent, clathrin-mediated endocytosis of the anthrax toxin

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.<br /

Modelling the Innate Immune Response against Avian Influenza Virus in Chicken

At present there is limited understanding of the host immune response to (low pathogenic) avian influenza virus infections in poultry. Here we develop a mathematical model for the innate immune response to avian influenza virus in chicken lung, describing the dynamics of viral load, interferon-α, -β and -γ, lung (i.e. pulmonary) cells and Natural Killer cells. We use recent results from experimentally infected chickens to validate some of the model predictions. The model includes an initial exponential increase of the viral load, which we show to be consistent with experimental data. Using this exponential growth model we show that the duration until a given viral load is reached in experiments with different inoculation doses is consistent with a model assuming a linear relationship between initial viral load and inoculation dose. Subsequent to the exponential-growth phase, the model results show a decline in viral load caused by both target-cell limitation as well as the innate immune response. The model results suggest that the temporal viral load pattern in the lungs displayed in experimental data cannot be explained by target-cell limitation alone. For biologically plausible parameter values the model is able to qualitatively match to data on viral load in chicken lungs up until approximately 4 days post infection. Comparison of model predictions with data on CD107-mediated degranulation of Natural Killer cells yields some discrepancy also for earlier days post infection

Effectiveness analysis of resistance and tolerance to infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tolerance and resistance provide animals with two distinct strategies to fight infectious pathogens and may exhibit different evolutionary dynamics. However, few studies have investigated these mechanisms in the case of animal diseases under commercial constraints.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The paper proposes a method to simultaneously describe (1) the dynamics of transmission of a contagious pathogen between animals, (2) the growth and death of the pathogen within infected hosts and (3) the effects on their performances. The effectiveness of increasing individual levels of tolerance and resistance is evaluated by the number of infected animals and the performance at the population level.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The model is applied to a particular set of parameters and different combinations of values. Given these imputed values, it is shown that higher levels of individual tolerance should be more effective than increased levels of resistance in commercial populations. As a practical example, a method is proposed to measure levels of animal tolerance to bovine mastitis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The model provides a general framework and some tools to maximize health and performances of a population under infection. Limits and assumptions of the model are clearly identified so it can be improved for different epidemiological settings.</p

Systemic virus distribution and host responses in brain and intestine of chickens infected with low pathogenic or high pathogenic avian influenza virus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Avian influenza virus (AIV) is classified into two pathotypes, low pathogenic (LP) and high pathogenic (HP), based on virulence in chickens.</p> <p>Differences in pathogenicity between HPAIV and LPAIV might eventually be related to specific characteristics of strains, tissue tropism and host responses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To study differences in disease development between HPAIV and LPAIV, we examined the first appearance and eventual load of viral RNA in multiple organs as well as host responses in brain and intestine of chickens infected with two closely related H7N1 HPAIV or LPAIV strains.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both H7N1 HPAIV and LPAIV spread systemically in chickens after a combined intranasal/intratracheal inoculation. In brain, large differences in viral RNA load and host gene expression were found between H7N1 HPAIV and LPAIV infected chickens. Chicken embryo brain cell culture studies revealed that both HPAIV and LPAIV could infect cultivated embryonic brain cells, but in accordance with the absence of the necessary proteases, replication of LPAIV was limited. Furthermore, TUNEL assay indicated apoptosis in brain of HPAIV infected chickens only. In intestine, where endoproteases that cleave HA of LPAIV are available, we found minimal differences in the amount of viral RNA and a large overlap in the transcriptional responses between HPAIV and LPAIV infected chickens. Interestingly, brain and ileum differed clearly in the cellular pathways that were regulated upon an AI infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although both H7N1 HPAIV and LPAIV RNA was detected in a broad range of tissues beyond the respiratory and gastrointestinal tract, our observations indicate that differences in pathogenicity and mortality between HPAIV and LPAIV could originate from differences in virus replication and the resulting host responses in vital organs like the brain.</p

Homo- and Heterosubtypic Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure on H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa)

Wild birds in the Orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are the natural reservoirs for avian influenza (AI) viruses. Although they are often infected with multiple AI viruses, the significance and extent of acquired immunity in these populations is not understood. Pre-existing immunity to AI virus has been shown to modulate the outcome of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in multiple domestic avian species, but few studies have addressed this effect in wild birds. In this study, the effect of pre-exposure to homosubtypic (homologous hemagglutinin) and heterosubtypic (heterologous hemagglutinin) low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses on the outcome of a H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa) was evaluated. Pre-exposure of wood ducks to different LPAI viruses did not prevent infection with H5N1 HPAI virus, but did increase survival associated with H5N1 HPAI virus infection. The magnitude of this effect on the outcome of the H5N1 HPAI virus infection varied between different LPAI viruses, and was associated both with efficiency of LPAI viral replication in wood ducks and the development of a detectable humoral immune response. These observations suggest that in naturally occurring outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI, birds with pre-existing immunity to homologous hemagglutinin or neuraminidase subtypes of AI virus may either survive H5N1 HPAI virus infection or live longer than naïve birds and, consequently, could pose a greater risk for contributing to viral transmission and dissemination. The mechanisms responsible for this protection and/or the duration of this immunity remain unknown. The results of this study are important for surveillance efforts and help clarify epidemiological data from outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI virus in wild bird populations

Spread of Avian Influenza Viruses by Common Teal (Anas crecca) in Europe

Since the recent spread of highly pathogenic (HP) H5N1 subtypes, avian influenza virus (AIV) dispersal has become an increasing focus of research. As for any other bird-borne pathogen, dispersal of these viruses is related to local and migratory movements of their hosts. In this study, we investigated potential AIV spread by Common Teal (Anas crecca) from the Camargue area, in the South of France, across Europe. Based on bird-ring recoveries, local duck population sizes and prevalence of infection with these viruses, we built an individual-based spatially explicit model describing bird movements, both locally (between wintering areas) and at the flyway scale. We investigated the effects of viral excretion duration and inactivation rate in water by simulating AIV spread with varying values for these two parameters. The results indicate that an efficient AIV dispersal in space is possible only for excretion durations longer than 7 days. Virus inactivation rate in the environment appears as a key parameter in the model because it allows local persistence of AIV over several months, the interval between two migratory periods. Virus persistence in water thus represents an important component of contamination risk as ducks migrate along their flyway. Based on the present modelling exercise, we also argue that HP H5N1 AIV is unlikely to be efficiently spread by Common Teal dispersal only