Decision Making for Inconsistent Expert Judgments Using Negative Probabilities

In this paper we provide a simple random-variable example of inconsistent information, and analyze it using three different approaches: Bayesian, quantum-like, and negative probabilities. We then show that, at least for this particular example, both the Bayesian and the quantum-like approaches have less normative power than the negative probabilities one.Comment: 14 pages, revised version to appear in the Proceedings of the QI2013 (Quantum Interactions) conferenc

International gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices: a longitudinal prospective cohort study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.

BACKGROUND: Reference values for umbilical artery Doppler indices are used clinically to assess fetal well-being. However, many studies that have produced reference charts have important methodologic limitations, and these result in significant heterogeneity of reported reference ranges. OBJECTIVES: To produce international gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices based on longitudinal data and the same rigorous methodology used in the original Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. STUDY DESIGN: In Phase II of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project (the INTERBIO-21st Study), we prospectively continued enrolling pregnant women according to the same protocol from 3 of the original populations in Pelotas (Brazil), Nairobi (Kenya), and Oxford (United Kingdom) that had participated in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study. Women with a singleton pregnancy were recruited at <14 weeks' gestation, confirmed by ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length, and then underwent standardized ultrasound every 5±1 weeks until delivery. From 22 weeks of gestation umbilical artery indices (pulsatility index, resistance index, and systolic/diastolic ratio) were measured in a blinded fashion, using identical equipment and a rigorously standardized protocol. Newborn size at birth was assessed using the international INTERGROWTH-21st Standards, and infants had detailed assessment of growth, nutrition, morbidity, and motor development at 1 and 2 years of age. The appropriateness of pooling data from the 3 study sites was assessed using variance component analysis and standardized site differences. Umbilical artery indices were modeled as functions of the gestational age using an exponential, normal distribution with second-degree fractional polynomial smoothing; goodness of fit for the overall models was assessed. RESULTS: Of the women enrolled at the 3 sites, 1629 were eligible for this study; 431 (27%) met the entry criteria for the construction of normative centiles, similar to the proportion seen in the original fetal growth longitudinal study. They contributed a total of 1243 Doppler measures to the analysis; 74% had 3 measures or more. The healthy low-risk status of the population was confirmed by the low rates of preterm birth (4.9%) and preeclampsia (0.7%). There were no neonatal deaths and satisfactory growth, health, and motor development of the infants at 1 and 2 years of age were documented. Only a very small proportion (2.8%-6.5%) of the variance of Doppler indices was due to between-site differences; in addition, standardized site difference estimates were marginally outside this threshold in only 1 of 27 comparisons, and this supported the decision to pool data from the 3 study sites. All 3 Doppler indices decreased with advancing gestational age. The 3rd, 5th 10th, 50th, 90th, 95th, and 97th centiles according to gestational age for each of the 3 indices are provided, as well as equations to allow calculation of any value as a centile and z scores. The mean pulsatility index according to gestational age = 1.02944 + 77.7456*(gestational age)-2 - 0.000004455*gestational age3. CONCLUSION: We present here international gestational age-specific normative centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices produced by studying healthy, low-risk pregnant women living in environments with minimal constraints on fetal growth. The centiles complement the existing INTERGROWTH-21st Standards for assessment of fetal well-being

CO2 signaling mediates neurovascular coupling in the cerebral cortex

Neurovascular coupling is a fundamental brain mechanism that regulates local cerebral blood flow (CBF) in response to changes in neuronal activity. Functional imaging techniques are commonly used to record these changes in CBF as a proxy of neuronal activity to study the human brain. However, the mechanisms of neurovascular coupling remain incompletely understood. Here we show in experimental animal models (laboratory rats and mice) that the neuronal activity-dependent increases in local CBF in the somatosensory cortex are prevented by saturation of the CO2-sensitive vasodilatory brain mechanism with surplus of exogenous CO2 or disruption of brain CO2/HCO3− transport by genetic knockdown of electrogenic sodium-bicarbonate cotransporter 1 (NBCe1) expression in astrocytes. A systematic review of the literature data shows that CO2 and increased neuronal activity recruit the same vasodilatory signaling pathways. These results and analysis suggest that CO2 mediates signaling between neurons and the cerebral vasculature to regulate brain blood flow in accord with changes in the neuronal activity

International standards for fetal brain structures based on serial ultrasound measurements from the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.

OBJECTIVE: To create prescriptive growth standards for five fetal brain structures, measured by ultrasound, from healthy, well-nourished women, at low risk of impaired fetal growth and poor perinatal outcomes, taking part in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study (FGLS) of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project. METHODS: This was a complementary analysis of a large, population-based, multicentre, longitudinal study. We measured, in planes reconstructed from 3-dimensional (3D) ultrasound volumes of the fetal head at different time points in pregnancy, the size of the parieto-occipital fissure (POF), Sylvian fissure (SF), anterior horn of the lateral ventricle (AV), atrium of the posterior ventricle (PV) and cisterna magna (CM). The sample analysed was randomly selected from the overall FGLS population, ensuring an equal distribution amongst the eight diverse participating sites and of 3D ultrasound volumes across pregnancy (range: 15 - 36 weeks' gestation). Fractional polynomials were used to the construct standards. Growth and development of the infants were assessed at 1 and 2 years of age to confirm their adequacy for constructing international standards. RESULTS: From the entire FGLS cohort of 4321 women, 451 (10.4%) were randomly selected. After exclusions, 3D ultrasound volumes from 442 fetuses born without congenital malformations were used to create the charts. The fetal brain structures of interest were identified in 90% of cases. All structures showed increasing size with gestation and increasing variability for the POF, SF, PV and CM. The 3rd , 5th , 50th , 95th and 97th smoothed centile are presented. The 5th centile of POF and SF were 2.8 and 4.3 at 22 weeks and 4.2 and 9.4mm at 32 weeks respectively. The 95th centile of PV and CM were 8.5 and 7.4 at 22 weeks and 8.5 and 9.4mm at 32 weeks respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have produced prescriptive size standards for fetal brain structures based on prospectively enrolled pregnancies at low risk of abnormal outcomes. We recommend these as international standards for the assessment of measurements obtained by ultrasound from fetal brain structures

Identification of novel imidazo[1,2-a]pyridine inhibitors targeting M. tuberculosis QcrB.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a major human pathogen and the causative agent for the pulmonary disease, tuberculosis (TB). Current treatment programs to combat TB are under threat due to the emergence of multi-drug and extensively-drug resistant TB. Through the use of high throughput whole cell screening of an extensive compound library a number of imidazo[1,2-a]pyridine (IP) compounds were obtained as potent lead molecules active against M. tuberculosis and Mycobacterium bovis BCG. The IP inhibitors (1–4) demonstrated minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) in the range of 0.03 to 5 µM against a panel of M. tuberculosis strains. M. bovis BCG spontaneous resistant mutants were generated against IP 1, 3, and 4 at 5× MIC and subsequent whole genome sequencing identified a single nucleotide polymorphism 937ACC>937GCC (T313A) in qcrB, which encodes the b subunit of the electron transport ubiquinol cytochrome C reductase. This mutation also conferred cross-resistance against IP 1, 3 and 4 demonstrating a common target. Gene dosage experiments confirmed M. bovis BCG QcrB as the target where over-expression in M. bovis BCG led to an increase in MIC from 0.5 to >8 µM for IP 3. An acute murine model of TB infection established bacteriostatic activity of the IP series, which await further detailed characterization

Bayesian Inference For The Segmented Weibull Distribution

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach for segmented Weibull distributions which could be a good alternative to analyze medical survival data in the presence of censored observations and covariates. With the obtained Bayesian estimated change-points we could get an excellent fit of the proposed model to any data sets. With the proposed methodology, it is also possible to identify survival times intervals where a covariate could have significantly different effects when compared to other lifetime intervals, an important point under a clinical view. The obtained Bayesian estimates are obtained using standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Some examples with real data sets illustrate the proposed methodology and its potential clinical value

Transit Timing and Duration Variations for the Discovery and Characterization of Exoplanets

Transiting exoplanets in multi-planet systems have non-Keplerian orbits which can cause the times and durations of transits to vary. The theory and observations of transit timing variations (TTV) and transit duration variations (TDV) are reviewed. Since the last review, the Kepler spacecraft has detected several hundred perturbed planets. In a few cases, these data have been used to discover additional planets, similar to the historical discovery of Neptune in our own Solar System. However, the more impactful aspect of TTV and TDV studies has been characterization of planetary systems in which multiple planets transit. After addressing the equations of motion and parameter scalings, the main dynamical mechanisms for TTV and TDV are described, with citations to the observational literature for real examples. We describe parameter constraints, particularly the origin of the mass/eccentricity degeneracy and how it is overcome by the high-frequency component of the signal. On the observational side, derivation of timing precision and introduction to the timing diagram are given. Science results are reviewed, with an emphasis on mass measurements of transiting sub-Neptunes and super-Earths, from which bulk compositions may be inferred.Comment: Revised version. Invited review submitted to 'Handbook of Exoplanets,' Exoplanet Discovery Methods section, Springer Reference Works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Eds. TeX and figures may be found at https://github.com/ericagol/TTV_revie

Patient characteristics associated with differences in patients' evaluation of their general practitioner

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Knowledge of the extent to which patient characteristics are systematically associated with variation in patient evaluations will enable us to adjust for differences between practice populations and thereby compare GPs. Whether this is appropriate depends on the purpose for which the patient evaluation was conducted. Associations between evaluations and patient characteristics may reflect gaps in the quality of care or may be due to inherent characteristics of the patients. This study aimed to determine such associations in a setting with a comprehensive list system and gate-keeping.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A nationwide Danish patient evaluation survey among voluntarily participating GPs using the EUROPEP questionnaire, which produced 28,260 patient evaluations (response rate 77.3%) of 365 GPs. In our analyses we compared the prevalence of positive evaluations in groups of patients.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found a positive GP assessment to be strongly associated with increasing patient age and increasing frequency of attendance. Patients reporting a chronic condition were more positive, whereas a low self-rated health was strongly associated with less positive scores also after adjustment. The association between patient gender and assessment was weak and inconsistent and depended on the focus. We found no association either with the patients' educational level or with the duration of listing with the GP even after adjusting for patient characteristics.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Adjustment for patient differences may produce a more fair comparison between GPs, but may also blur the assessment of GPs' ability to meet the needs of the populations actually served. On the other hand, adjusted results will enable us to describe the significance of specific patient characteristics to patients' experience of care.</p