Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach

The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere–ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change

Evaluating the Potential Effectiveness of Compensatory Mitigation Strategies for Marine Bycatch

Conservationists are continually seeking new strategies to reverse population declines and safeguard against species extinctions. Here we evaluate the potential efficacy of a recently proposed approach to offset a major anthropogenic threat to many marine vertebrates: incidental bycatch in commercial fisheries operations. This new approach, compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch (CMMB), is conceived as a way to replace or reduce mandated restrictions on fishing activities with compensatory activities (e.g., removal of introduced predators from islands) funded by levies placed on fishers. While efforts are underway to bring CMMB into policy discussions, to date there has not been a detailed evaluation of CMMB's potential as a conservation tool, and in particular, a list of necessary and sufficient criteria that CMMB must meet to be an effective conservation strategy. Here we present a list of criteria to assess CMMB that are tied to critical ecological aspects of the species targeted for conservation, the range of possible mitigation activities, and the multi-species impact of fisheries bycatch. We conclude that, overall, CMMB has little potential for benefit and a substantial potential for harm if implemented to solve most fisheries bycatch problems. In particular, CMMB is likely to be effective only when applied to short-lived and highly-fecund species (not the characteristics of most bycatch-impacted species) and to fisheries that take few non-target species, and especially few non-seabird species (not the characteristics of most fisheries). Thus, CMMB appears to have limited application and should only be implemented after rigorous appraisal on a case-specific basis; otherwise it has the potential to accelerate declines of marine species currently threatened by fisheries bycatch

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to ecological risk assessment

International audienceWe revisit a classical method for ecological risk assessment, the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) approach, in a Bayesian nonparamet-ric framework. SSD is a mandatory diagnostic required by environmental regulatory bodies from the European Union, the United States, Australia, China etc. Yet, it is subject to much scientific criticism, notably concerning a historically debated parametric assumption for modelling species variability. Tackling the problem using nonparametric mixture models, it is possible to shed this parametric assumption and build a statistically sounder basis for SSD. We use Normalized Random Measures with Independent Increments (NRMI) as the mixing measure because they offer a greater flexibility than the Dirichlet process. Indeed, NRMI can induce a prior on the number of components in the mixture model that is less informative than the Dirichlet process. This feature is consistent with the fact that SSD practitioners do not usually have a strong prior belief on the number of components. In this short paper, we illustrate the advantage of the nonparametric SSD over the classical normal SSD and a kernel density estimate SSD on several real datasets. We summarise the results of the complete study in Kon Kam King et al. (2016), where the method is generalised to censored data and a systematic comparison on simulated data is also presented, along with a study of the clustering induced by the mixture model to examine patterns in species sensitivity

Will the Effects of Sea-Level Rise Create Ecological Traps for Pacific Island Seabirds?

<div><p>More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km²). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, <i>Phoebastria immutabilis</i>; black-footed albatross, <i>P</i>. <i>nigripes</i>; and Bonin petrel, <i>Pterodroma hypoleuca</i>). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.</p></div

Sex-biased incidental mortality of albatrosses and petrels in longline fisheries: differential distributions at sea or differential access to baits mediated by sexual size dimorphism?

Skewed adult sex ratio (ASR) has been proposed as a common pattern in birds, frequently biased towards males and with larger biases in globally threatened species. In albatrosses and petrels, it has been suggested that differential mortality of one gender in fisheries is caused either by sexual size dimorphism giving males a competitive advantage, which allows more access of the larger sex (i.e. males) to discards and/or baits, or to at sea segregation of sexes. Here, we tested these hypotheses by determining ASRs in albatrosses and petrels trapped at sea when attending longline fishing vessels for discards in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and searched in the literature for patterns in ASR in albatrosses and petrels killed by fisheries in this area and elsewhere. We show that skewed ASR is common in albatrosses and petrels in the community attending vessels for discards, confirming results found for birds in general. There was no correlation between skewed ASR and conservation status, or between ASR and sexual size dimorphism. Our review of the sex of birds incidentally killed in fisheries found skewed ASR toward males, females or parity to be equally reported. Thus, sexual dimorphism in size does not explain skewed ASR in the community we sampled or in incidental captures in fisheries in the review. Differential at-sea distribution of sexes appears to be a better explanation of the patterns found in the community sampled at sea as well as skewed ASR in seabird fatalities, particularly distant from breeding areas

Oceanographic and biological landscapes used by the Southern Giant Petrel during the breeding season at the Patagonian Shelf

The study of how and why marine animals distribute themselves at sea has important conservation and management implications of the species and their habitats. We characterize the oceanographic and biological landscapes of the marine areas used by breeding Southern Giant Petrels (Macronectes giganteus) at Patagonian colonies and explore inter-sexual and inter-colony diVerences. The at-sea movements of 16 adults (7 males and 9 females) were studied by means of satellite telemetry techniques during 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004 breeding seasons. Southern Giant Petrels utilized an oceanographic scenario characterized by high productivity, warm sea surface temperature, and shallow waters. The biological landscape was characterized by a high availability of squid and carrion nearby colonies. Females spent more time in the shelf break and exploited deeper waters than males. In contrast, males spent more time in coastal areas and they showed a higher spatial overlap with areas of high squid density than females. Such a prosperous foraging scenario for both sexes may play a key role in the growth of the breeding population of Southern Giant Petrel Patagonian colonies.Fil: Copello, Sofía. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Dogliotti, Ana Inés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Gagliardini, Domingo Antonio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Quintana, Flavio Roberto. Wildlife Conservation Society; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentin