Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. RESULTS: The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman

Prevalence of prehypertension and associated cardiovascular risk profiles among prediabetic Omani adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The importance of prediabetes and prehypertension has been demonstrated in several studies especially for primary prevention of CVD. A recent community based cross-sectional study revealed that 40.9 percent Omani adults are prediabetics. This study was undertaken to estimate the prevalence of prehypertension and associated cardiovascular risk profiles in prediabetics. To best of our knowledge, this is the first report on this subject.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study included 327 confirmed pre-diabetic Omani adults, who were analysed for their demographic, metabolic and behavioral characteristics. These characteristics were compared between the three different blood pressure groups to determine the CVD risk factors. Univariate and step-wise multiple logistic regression methods were used to carry out the analysis of the data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, the prevalence of prehypertension was 54.1 percent. Males were at higher risk of developing prehypertension as compared to females (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.38; P < 0.01). The individuals with higher BMI have two fold more risk of developing prehypertension (OR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.26, 4.02; P < 0.01). The increased level of OGT enhanced the risk of developing prehypertension (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.50; P < 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A high prevalence of prehypertension (54.1%) exists in this study population. The major determinants of prehypertension in these prediabetic subjects were male gender, increasing dysglycemia and BMI. Appropriate intervention strategies have been suggested.</p

Knowledge and perceptions of diabetes in a semi-urban Omani population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes mellitus is a major public health problem in the Sultanate of Oman. This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge and perception of diabetes in a sample of the Omani general population, and the associations between the elements of knowledge and perception, and socio-demographic factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was carried out in two semi-urban localities. A total of 563 adult residents were interviewed, using a questionnaire specifically designed for the present study. In addition to demographic information, the questionnaire contained questions on knowledge related to diabetes definition, symptoms, risk factors, complications and preventative measures, as well as risk perception for diabetes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Knowledge of diabetes was suboptimal. The percentages of correct responses to questions on diabetes definition, classical symptoms, and complications were 46.5%, 57.0%, and 55.1%, respectively. Only 29.5%, 20.8% and 16.9% identified obesity, physical inactivity and a positive family history, respectively, as risk factors for diabetes. A higher level of education, a higher household income, and the presence of a family history of diabetes were found to be positively associated with more knowledge.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study demonstrated that there is lack of awareness of major risk factors for diabetes mellitus. Level of education is the most significant predictor of knowledge regarding risk factors, complications and the prevention of diabetes. Given that the prevalence of diabetes has increased drastically in Oman over the last decade, health promotion seems essential, along with other means to prevent and control this emerging health problem.</p

Correlates of physical activity and sitting time in adults with type 2 diabetes attending primary health care in Oman

Abstract Background Despite evidence of the benefits of physical activity in the management of type 2 diabetes, it is poorly addressed in diabetes care. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and correlates of meeting ≥600MET-min/wk. (150 min/wk) of physical activity and sitting time in adults with type 2 diabetes in Oman. Approaches to encourage physical activity in diabetes care were explored. Methods A cross-sectional study using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire was conducted in 17 randomly selected primary health centres in Muscat. Clinical data including co-morbidities were extracted from the health information system. Questions on physical activity preferences and approaches were included. Patients were approached if they were ≥18 years, and had been registered in the diabetes clinic for >2 years. Results The questionnaire was completed by 305 people (females 57% and males 43%). Mean age (SD) was 57 (10.8) years and mean BMI (SD) was 31.0 (6.0) kg/m2. Duration of diabetes ranged from 2 to 25 (mean 7.6) years. Hypertension (71%) and dyslipidaemia (62%) were common comorbidities. Most (58.4%) had an HbA1c ≥7% indicating poor glycaemic control (55% in males vs 61% in females). Physical activity recommendations were met by 21.6% of the participants, mainly through leisure activities. Odds of meeting the recommendations were significantly higher in males (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.5–9.1), individuals ≤57 years (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6–5.9), those at active self-reported stages of change for physical activity (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2–4.1) and those reporting no barriers to performing physical activity (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4–4.9). Median (25th, 75th percentiles) sitting time was 705 (600, 780) min/d. Older age (>57 years) was associated with longer sitting time (>705 min/d) (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.7–4.6). Preferred methods to support physical activity in routine diabetes care were consultations (38%), structured physical activity sessions (13.4%) and referrals to physical activity facilities (5.6%) delivered by a variety of health care providers. Conclusions The results suggest that intervention strategies should take account of gender, age, opportunities within daily life to promote active behaviour and readiness to change. Offering physical activity consultations is of interest to this study population, thus development and evaluation of interventions are warranted

Population-based incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated risk factors: results from a six-year cohort study in Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Middle East is estimated to have the largest increase in prevalence of diabetes by 2030; yet there is lack of published data on the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in this region. This study aimed to estimate Type 2 diabetes incidence and its associated risk factors in an Iranian urban population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Among 3307 non-diabetics ≥ 20 years (mean age 42 ± 13 years, 42% males), glucose tolerance test was performed at baseline in 1999–2001 and at two consecutive phases in 2001–2005 and 2005–2008. Diabetes and glucose tolerance status were defined according to the ADA 1997 criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent variables associated with incident diabetes and their odds ratios (OR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After median follow-up of 6 years, 237 new cases of diabetes were ascertained corresponding to an age and sex standardized cumulative incidence of 6.4% (95%CI: 5.6–7.2) and incidence rate of 10.6 (9.2–12.1) per 1000 person years. Besides classical diabetes risk factors, female sex and low education level significantly increased risk of diabetes in age adjusted models. In full model, the independent predictors were age [OR, 95%CI: 1.2 (1.1–1.3)], family history of diabetes [1.8 (1.3–2.5)], body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m²[2.3 (1.5–3.6)], abdominal obesity [1.9 (1.4–2.6)], high triglyceride [1.4 (1.1–1.9)], Isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG) [7.4 (3.6–15.0)], Isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) [5.9 (4.2–8.4)] and combined IFG and IGT [42.2 (23.8–74.9)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More than 1% of the Iranian urban population older than 20 years develops Type 2 diabetes each year. Combination of IFG and IGT was the strongest predictor of incident diabetes among the modifiable risk factors.</p

Prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity in the Lausanne population

Obesity can be defined using body mass index (BMI) or waist (abdominal obesity). Little information exists regarding its prevalence and determinants in Switzerland. Hence, we assessed the levels of obesity as defined by BMI or waist circumference in a Swiss population-based sample. Cross-sectional, population-based non-stratified random sample of 3,249 women and 2,937 men aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall participation rate was 41%. In men, the prevalences of overweight (BMI &gt; or =25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI &gt; or =30 kg/m2) were 45.5% and 16.9%, respectively, higher than in women (28.3% and 14.3%, respectively). The prevalence of abdominal obesity (waist &gt; or =102 in men and &gt; or =88 cm in women) was higher in women than in men (30.6% vs. 23.9%). Obesity and abdominal obesity increased with age and decreased with higher educational level in both genders. In women, the prevalence of obesity was lower among former and current smokers, whereas in men the prevalence of obesity was higher in former smokers but did not differ between current and never smokers. Multivariate analysis showed age to be positively related, and education and physical activity to be negatively related with obesity and abdominal obesity in both genders, whereas differential effects of smoking were found between genders. The prevalence of abdominal obesity is higher than BMI-derived obesity in the Swiss population. Women presented with more abdominal obesity than men. The association between smoking and obesity levels appears to differ between genders

Metabolic syndrome in a Taiwanese metropolitan adult population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a combination of medical disorders that increase one's risk for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Little information exists on the prevalence of MS in a general adult population in Taiwan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We did a cross-sectional survey in a representative sample of 2,359 Chinese adults aged 40 years and over who lived in a metropolitan city, Taiwan in 2004–05. MS was defined by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria modified for Asians.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of MetS was 35.32% and 43.23% in men aged 40–64 years and 65 years and over, respectively, and 24.19% and 51.82% in women aged 40–64 years and 65 years and over. Older age, postmenopausal status, higher body mass index, current smoking, low education attainment, low household income, no alcohol consumption, lower level of occupation physical activity, and a family history of diabetes were associated with increased odds of MetS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>MetS was present in more than 30% of the Taiwan adult population aged 40 years and over in a metropolitan area; there were substantial variations by age and body mass index groups.</p

Age-specific prevalence of the metabolic syndrome defined by the International Diabetes Federation and the National Cholesterol Education Program: the Norwegian HUNT 2 study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The 2005 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition of the metabolic syndrome was designed to be useful worldwide, but to date few prevalence studies have used that definition in European populations. We estimated the age- and sex-stratified prevalence of IDF-defined metabolic syndrome in a county of Norway and compared it with the prevalence estimated using the revised National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel-III definition (2005 ATP III).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional analysis of 10,206 participants aged 20–89 years in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 1995–97 (HUNT 2).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Prevalence of IDF-defined metabolic syndrome was 29.6% (95% CI: 28.8 to 30.5), compared to 25.9% (95% CI: 25.0 to 26.7) using the 2005 ATP III criteria. The prevalence of IDF-defined metabolic syndrome increased from 11.0% in the 20–29 years age group to 47.2% in the 80–89 years group in men, and from 9.2% to 64.4% for women in the corresponding age groups. Among men and women aged ≥60 years, the IDF criteria classified 56.7% and 75.0%, respectively, as having central obesity, and 89.3% and 90.9%, respectively, as being hypertensive.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>According to both definitions, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome increased strongly with age. The IDF and the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guidelines for clinical management of metabolic syndrome would classify a high proportion of elderly Norwegians as in need of overall risk assessment for cardiovascular disease.</p

Understanding the risk and protective factors associated with obesity amongst Libyan adults - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: There are a range of multifaceted behavioural and societal factors that combine to contribute to the causes of obesity. However, it is not yet known how particularly countries' cultural norms are contributing to the global obesity epidemic. Despite obesity reaching epidemic proportions in Libya, since the discovery of oil in 1959, there is a lack of information about obesity in Libyan adults. This study sought to explore the views of key informants about the risk and protective factors associated with obesity among Libyan men and women. METHODS: A series of qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with Libyan healthcare professionals and community leaders. RESULTS: Eleven main themes (risk and protective factors) were identified, specifically: socio-demographic and biological factors, socioeconomic status, unhealthy eating behaviours, knowledge about obesity, social-cultural influences, Libya's healthcare facilities, physical activity and the effect of the neighbourhood environment, sedentary behaviour, Libyan food-subsidy policy, and suggestions for preventing and controlling obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Key recommendations are that an electronic health information system needs to be implemented and awareness about obesity and its causes and consequences needs to be raised among the public in order to dispel the many myths and misconceptions held by Libyans about obesity. The current political instability within Libya is contributing to a less-active lifestyle for the population due to security concerns and the impact of curfews. Our findings have implications for Libyan health policy and highlight the urgent need for action towards mitigating against the obesity epidemic in Libya