Sensitivity Analysis of Values at Risk

The aim of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolio allocation. We derive analytical expressions for the first and second derivatives of the Value at Risk, and explain how they can be used to simplify statistical inference and to perform a local analysis of the Value at Risk. An empirical illustration of such an analysis is given for an portfolio of French stocks.Value at Risk; risk management; VaR efficient portfolio; iso VaR; kernel estimators; quantile

Retards de remboursement : le problème, ses causes, ses conséquences

Réunion: Conférence nationale pour le renforcement de la gratuité des soins au Niger, mars 201

Advances in multi-elementary analysis of fluid or solid micro-crystalline inclusions (12

International audienceX-Ray-based analytical methods can be applied in an absolute fashion, provided that matrix effects are calculated and that parameters related to instrumental factors are controlled (Newbury, 1986). When EPMA (Electron Probe Micro Analysis) was conceived at the end of the 60's, this potentiality was abandoned, as the instrument works in a relative fashion, by comparison with standards. At the end of the 70's and in the 80's, PIXE (Proton Induced X-Ray Emission) by contrast was applied in a way that preserved the possibility of an absolute application: the computer programs developed to interpret PIXE spectra calculate matrix effects and also integrate instrumental factors (e.g., Maxwell et al., 1989). In spite of this advantage, and also despite the fact that PIXE application extends to trace element analysis, the development of PIXE in the scientific community was sluggish, in deep contrast with the widespread applications of EPMA. In the field of Earth Sciences particularly, EPMA was recognized by the Mineralogical Society of America to have had 'a revolutionary, profound impact on mineralogy and petrology'. In the same time, PIXE applications remained mainly restricted to trace element analysis, and the potential accuracy of the method was never clearly realized. A first aim of this presentation is to show that, using a simple standardization procedure, the multi-elementary absolute capability of PIXE can be revealed. This in turn changes PIXE into a tool of quantitative mineralogy and trace element geochemistry. We then show that, by coupling PIXE to PIGE (Proton Induced Gamma Ray Emission) and RBS (Rutherford Back Scattering) spectrometries, the Nuclear Microprobe becomes a tool for quantitative mineralogy s.l. and geochemistry, i.e., an instrument to analyze all major to trace elements from Li to U in minerals and their inclusions. In the second part of the presentation, we illustrate the capability of µ-PIXE to analyze in situ individual fluid inclusions that have been carefully localized in space and time. The Hercynian French Massif Central and its sedimentary eastern margin are part of a large European Carbonic Province, which hosts numerous deep CO2 reservoirs and carbonic springs (Blavoux, Dazy, 1990). Carbonic fluids are present at all stages of the long-lived evolution of this crustal segment, from deep metamorphic fluids involved in a thrusting event at 340 M.a to mantle-derived volcanic CO2 related to Neogene volcanism. In order to characterize the main aquo-carbonic fluid reservoirs through time in this crustal segment, we present preliminary data on the trace element content of aquo-carbonic inclusions trapped in the schists at peak and retrograde metamorphic conditions, and compare them to contemporaneous granite-related fluid inclusion

Effect of different diets on the development, mortality, survival, food uptake and fecundity of Tupiocoris cucurbitaceus (Hemiptera: Miridae)

Several Miridae (Hemiptera) species have been identified as useful predators for biological control of the greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). There is interest in determining the effects of different diets on Tupiocoris cucurbitaceus (Spinola) (Hemiptera: Miridae) in order to facilitate their breeding and use in biological control. Given that mirids can be both phytophagous and zoophytophagous, the developmental time, mortality, survival, feeding and fecundity of this species on tomato and tobacco leaves with and without the addition of T. vaporariorum or Ephestia kuehniella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) eggs were studied. To determine embryonic duration, T. cucurbitaceus was allowed to oviposit on tobacco plants for 24 h at 26 °C, 83% RH and a photoperiod of 16:8 h L:D. The time of onset of the first instar nymphs was recorded. Subsequently, these nymphs fed on different diets on 9 cm × 1.5 cm plates under the same environmental conditions. Results showed that diet influences the duration of development in T. cucurbitaceus, with nymphal stadia being shorter and the adult stadium being longer when fed prey than when not fed prey. With the addition of prey, nymphal mortality was generally lower and adult survival was higher. The high consumption of T. vaporariorum eggs by T. cucurbitaceus suggests the need for subsequent studies on the latter for inclusion of this species in biological control programs in greenhouses

Le conservatoire botanique de Porquerolles

En raison des menaces de voir disparaître plusieurs centaines d'espèces, sous-espèces ou variétés de plantes méditerranéennes françaises, il a été créé le conservatoire botanique de Porquerolles. Ce dernier remplit à la fois un rôle de conservation, d'expérimentation et de formation du public

Vascular Platform to Define Hematopoietic Stem Cell Factors and Enhance Regenerative Hematopoiesis

SummaryHematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) inhabit distinct microenvironments within the adult bone marrow (BM), which govern the delicate balance between HSC quiescence, self-renewal, and differentiation. Previous reports have proposed that HSCs localize to the vascular niche, comprised of endothelium and tightly associated perivascular cells. Herein, we examine the capacity of BM endothelial cells (BMECs) to support ex vivo and in vivo hematopoiesis. We demonstrate that AKT1-activated BMECs (BMEC-Akt1) have a unique transcription factor/cytokine profile that supports functional HSCs in lieu of complex serum and cytokine supplementation. Additionally, transplantation of BMEC-Akt1 cells enhanced regenerative hematopoiesis following myeloablative irradiation. These data demonstrate that BMEC-Akt1 cultures can be used as a platform for the discovery of pro-HSC factors and justify the utility of BMECs as a cellular therapy. This technical advance may lead to the development of therapies designed to decrease pancytopenias associated with myeloablative regimens used to treat a wide array of disease states

Long-term outcomes following functional endoscopic sinus surgery in Samter's triad.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the long-term outcome of functional endoscopic sinus surgery for Samter's triad patients using an objective visual analogue scale and nasal endoscopy. METHOD: Using a retrospective database, 33 Samter's triad patients who underwent functional endoscopic sinus surgery were evaluated pre- and post-operatively between 1987 and 2007 in Hospital of La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland. RESULTS: A total of 33 patients participated in the study, and the mean follow-up period was 11.6 years (range 1.2-20 years). Patients were divided into two groups based on visual analogue scale scores of the five parameters with the greatest difference in intensity of symptoms between the beginning and end of follow up. Group 1 included patients with a mean visual analogue scale score of 6 and below at the end of follow up and group 2 included patients with a mean visual analogue scale score of more than 6. The only statistically significant difference noted between the two groups was the endonasal findings: stage III-IV polyposis was present in 1 out of 24 patients (4 per cent) in group 1 and in 5 out of 9 patients (56 per cent) in group 2. CONCLUSION: The results of our study indicate that functional endoscopic sinus surgery helps stabilise disease progression. Stage III-IV polyposis had a significant adverse effect on long-term outcome

The SPARSE model for the prediction of water stress and evapotranspiration components from thermal infra-red data and its evaluation over irrigated and rainfed wheat

Evapotranspiration is an important component of the water cycle, especially in semi-arid lands. A way to quantify the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration and water stress from remote-sensing data is to exploit the available surface temperature as a signature of the surface energy balance. Remotely sensed energy balance models enable one to estimate stress levels and, in turn, the water status of continental surfaces. Dual-source models are particularly useful since they allow derivation of a rough estimate of the water stress of the vegetation instead of that of a soil–vegetation composite. They either assume that the soil and the vegetation interact almost independently with the atmosphere (patch approach corresponding to a parallel resistance scheme) or are tightly coupled (layer approach corresponding to a series resistance scheme). The water status of both sources is solved simultaneously from a single surface temperature observation based on a realistic underlying assumption which states that, in most cases, the vegetation is unstressed, and that if the vegetation is stressed, evaporation is negligible. In the latter case, if the vegetation stress is not properly accounted for, the resulting evaporation will decrease to unrealistic levels (negative fluxes) in order to maintain the same total surface temperature. This work assesses the retrieval performances of total and component evapotranspiration as well as surface and plant water stress levels by (1) proposing a new dual-source model named Soil Plant Atmosphere and Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration (SPARSE) in two versions (parallel and series resistance networks) based on the TSEB (Two-Source Energy Balance model, Norman et al., 1995) model rationale as well as state-of-the-art formulations of turbulent and radiative exchange, (2) challenging the limits of the underlying hypothesis for those two versions through a synthetic retrieval test and (3) testing the water stress retrievals (vegetation water stress and moisture-limited soil evaporation) against in situ data over contrasted test sites (irrigated and rainfed wheat). We demonstrated with those two data sets that the SPARSE series model is more robust to component stress retrieval for this cover type, that its performance increases by using bounding relationships based on potential conditions (root mean square error lowered by up to 11 W m−2 from values of the order of 50–80 W m−2), and that soil evaporation retrieval is generally consistent with an independent estimate from observed soil moisture evolution