Economic and climatic models for estimating coffee supply

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a oferta cafeeira por meio da calibração de modelos estatísticos, com variáveis econômicas e climáticas, das principais regiões produtoras do Estado de São Paulo. As regiões estudadas foram Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa e Osvaldo Cruz. Foram utilizados dados de oferta cafeeira, variáveis econômicas (crédito rural, crédito rural na agricultura e valor da produção) e variáveis climáticas (temperatura do ar, precipitação pluvial, evapotranspiração potencial, deficiência e excedente hídrico) de cada região, para o período de 2000–2014. Os modelos foram calibrados com uso de técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, e todas as combinações possíveis foram testadas para a seleção das variáveis. A oferta cafeeira foi a variável dependente, e as demais, as independentes. A acurácia e a precisão dos modelos foram analisadas pelo erro percentual médio e pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, respectivamente. As variáveis que mais influenciam a oferta cafeeira são o valor de produção e a temperatura do ar. É possível estimar a oferta cafeeira com regressões lineares múltiplas por meio de variáveis econômicas e elementos climáticos. Os modelos mais acurados são os calibrados para estimar a oferta cafeeira das regiões de Cássia dos Coqueiros e Osvaldo Cruz.The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000–2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz

Journey from Caïro to Mount Sinaï, and return to Caïro communicated by J. Fazakerley, Esq. M.P. in: Walpole, Robert (ed), Travels in various countries of the East... London 1820.

Dedication:Illustration: (Maps ,Views ,portraits ,)Pagination: 362-391Text Genre:JournalIllustration: (χάρτες ,τοπία ,πορτραίτα ,

Wavelength stabilization of extended-cavity tapered lasers with volume Bragg gratings

The wavelength stabilization of high-brightness extended-cavity lasers at 810-nm by the use of volume Bragg gratings is described. Narrow linewidth (< 20 pm), high power (2.5 W) and good beam quality (M2<4) operation has been obtained in a robust and simple design. The impact of the beam focusing into the Bragg grating on the external cavity performance has been theoretically and experimentally investigated. Finally, second-harmonic generation of the infrared beam has been obtained in a ppKTP crystal, demonstrating a non-linear conversion efficiency of 0.8%/W and up to 8 mW at 405 nm

Perioperative FOLFOX4 chemotherapy and surgery versus surgery alone for resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer (EORTC 40983): long-term results of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BackgroundPrevious results of the EORTC intergroup trial 40983 showed that perioperative chemotherapy with FOLFOX4 (folinic acid, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin) increases progression-free survival (PFS) compared with surgery alone for patients with initially resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer. Here we present overall survival data after long-term follow-up.MethodsThis randomised, controlled, parallel-group, phase 3 study recruited patients from 78 hospitals across Europe, Australia, and Hong Kong. Eligible patients aged 18–80 years who had histologically proven colorectal cancer and up to four liver metastases were randomly assigned (1:1) to either perioperative FOLFOX4 or surgery alone. Perioperative FOLFOX4 consisted of six 14-day cycles of oxaliplatin 85mg/m2, folinic acid 200 mg/m2 (DL form) or 100 mg/m2 (L form) on days 1–2 plus bolus, and fluorouracil 400 mg/m2 (bolus) and 600 mg/m2 (continuous 22 h infusion), before and after surgery. Patients were centrally randomised by minimisation, adjusting for centre and risk score and previous adjuvant chemotherapy to primary surgery for colorectal cancer, and the trial was open label. Analysis of overall survival was by intention to treat in all randomly assigned patients. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00006479.FindingsBetween Oct 10, 2000, and July 5, 2004, 364 patients were randomly assigned to a treatment group (182 patients in each group, of which 171 per group were eligible and 152 per group underwent resection). At a median follow-up of 8·5 years (IQR 7·6–9·5), 107 (59%) patients in the perioperative chemotherapy group had died versus 114 (63%) in the surgery-only group (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·68–1·14; p=0·34). In all randomly assigned patients, median overall survival was 61·3 months (95% CI 51·0–83·4) in the perioperative chemotherapy group and 54·3 months (41·9–79·4) in the surgery alone group. 5-year overall survival was 51·2% (95% CI 43·6–58·3) in the perioperative chemotherapy group versus 47·8% (40·3–55·0) in the surgery-only group. Two patients in the perioperative chemotherapy group and three in the surgery-only group died from complications of protocol surgery, and one patient in the perioperative chemotherapy group died possibly as a result of toxicity of protocol treatment.InterpretationWe found no difference in overall survival with the addition of perioperative chemotherapy with FOLFOX4 compared with surgery alone for patients with resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer. However, the previously observed benefit in PFS means that perioperative chemotherapy with FOLFOX4 should remain the reference treatment for this population of patients.<br/

Fine-mapping of the HNF1B multicancer locus identifies candidate variants that mediate endometrial cancer risk

Common variants in the hepatocyte nuclear factor 1 homeobox B (HNF1B) gene are associated with the risk of Type II diabetes and multiple cancers. Evidence to date indicates that cancer risk may be mediated via genetic or epigenetic effects on HNF1B gene expression. We previously found single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the HNF1B locus to be associated with endometrial cancer, and now report extensive fine-mapping and in silico and laboratory analyses of this locus. Analysis of 1184 genotyped and imputed SNPs in 6608 Caucasian cases and 37 925 controls, and 895 Asian cases and 1968 controls, revealed the best signal of association for SNP rs11263763 (P = 8.4 × 10−14, odds ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval = 0.82–0.89), located within HNF1B intron 1. Haplotype analysis and conditional analyses provide no evidence of further independent endometrial cancer risk variants at this locus. SNP rs11263763 genotype was associated with HNF1B mRNA expression but not with HNF1B methylation in endometrial tumor samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Genetic analyses prioritized rs11263763 and four other SNPs in high-to-moderate linkage disequilibrium as the most likely causal SNPs. Three of these SNPs map to the extended HNF1B promoter based on chromatin marks extending from the minimal promoter region. Reporter assays demonstrated that this extended region reduces activity in combination with the minimal HNF1B promoter, and that the minor alleles of rs11263763 or rs8064454 are associated with decreased HNF1B promoter activity. Our findings provide evidence for a single signal associated with endometrial cancer risk at the HNF1B locus, and that risk is likely mediated via altered HNF1B gene expression