36 research outputs found
Some critical remarks on a new numerical method for simulation of dynamical systems
Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68690/2/10.1177_003754976600600210.pd
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections
Antigenic Drift of the Pandemic 2009 A(H1N1) Influenza Virus in a Ferret Model
10.1371/journal.ppat.1003354PLoS Pathogens95e100335
LISA: a web-based decision-support system for trial management of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia
Estimating the Fitness Advantage Conferred by Permissive Neuraminidase Mutations in Recent Oseltamivir-Resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Viruses
10.1371/journal.ppat.1004065PLoS Pathogens104e100406