A Framework for Scenario Generation for CO2 Gaming

This Working Paper develops a framework for the generation of integrated scenarios of carbon use and climatic impacts in the computer-based game and for strengthening the design of the board in the board game. The paper also seeks the assistance of readers in the further elaboration of several aspects of game design

Quantum dot emission from site-controlled ngan/gan micropyramid arrays

InxGa1−xN quantum dots have been fabricated by the selective growth of GaN micropyramid arrays topped with InGaN/GaN quantum wells. The spatially, spectrally, and time-resolved emission properties of these structures were measured using cathodoluminescence hyperspectral imaging and low-temperature microphotoluminescence spectroscopy. The presence of InGaN quantum dots was confirmed directly by the observation of sharp peaks in the emission spectrum at the pyramid apices. These luminescence peaks exhibit decay lifetimes of approximately 0.5 ns, with linewidths down to 650 me

Comparison of synthetic membranes in the development of an in vitro feeding system for Dermanyssus gallinae

Although artificial feeding models for the poultry red mite (Dermanyssus gallinae) most frequently use biological membranes consisting of day-old chick skin, there are ethical considerations associated with the use of skin. The few studies reported in the literature that have investigated the use of synthetic membranes to feed D. gallinae in vitro have reported limited success. The current study describes an investigation into the use of synthetic membranes made from either Nescofilm® or rayon and silicone, used either alone or in combination with different feather or skin extracts, as well as the use of capillary tubes. In all, 12 different treatments were used, and the feeding rate of D. gallinae was compared to that of day-old chick skin. Allowing mites to feed on a membrane consisting of Nescofilm with a skin extract resulted in the highest proportion of mites feeding (32.3%), which was not significantly different to the feeding rate of mites on day-old chick skin (38.8%). This study confirms that synthetic membranes can be used to feed D. gallinae artificially. Further optimization of the membrane and mite storage conditions is still necessary, but the study demonstrates a proof of concept

Immunization of the rural Bantu against diphtheria in the Northern Transvaal

No Abstrac

Children's working understanding of the knowledge gained from seeing and feeling

In three Experiments, (N = 48 3- to 4-year olds; 100 3- to 5-year olds; 54 4-yearolds), children who could see or feel a target toy, recognized when they had sufficient information to answer “Which one is it?” and when they needed additional access. They were weaker at taking the informative modality of access when the choice was between seeing more of a partially visible toy and feeling it; at doing so when the target was completely hidden; and at reporting seeing or feeling as their source of knowledge of the target’s identity having experienced both. Working understanding of the knowledge gained from seeing and feeling (identifying the target efficiently) was not necessarily in advance of explicit understanding (reporting the informative source)

Carbon and Climate Gaming

The issue of carbon use and possible associated climatic change has received growing attention in the last few years as an important aspect of assessing the impacts of various energy options. At IIASA that attention has been reflected in the Energy Systems Program and in the Global Climate Task of the Resources and Environment (REN) Area. As explained in this paper, the problem of climatic change can be viewed both as a problem of societal risk management and as a problem in strategic gaming behavior of the various decision makers involved. It is natural, then, that a joint working group at IIASA has formed, quite spontaneously, from representatives of the IIASA climate task (REN), the IIASA risk management project (Management and Technology Area, MMT), and the IIASA gaming project (MMT and Systems and Decision Sciences Area, SDS). This research group benefits from the multidisciplinary character of IIASA, which, along with its neutral scientific stance and long-standing interest in climate and energy, puts IIASA in an excellent position to increase our understanding of the problem of carbon use and climatic change. A list of IIASA papers and publications relating to climate is included here. This paper describes an effort which began in March of 1980 and is expected to continue for another year or more. The paper consists primarily of material developed for a research proposal intended to assure continuation of the project. Two other working papers describing the project are also available. The paper entitled "An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game" (WP-80-154) describes in more detail the logic and a possible framework for parts of the proposed computer game. The paper "CO2: An Introduction and Possible Board Game" (WP-80-153) offers a non-technical sketch of the question and a description of the second proposed game. The development of the carbon and climate games described in these papers is being carried out at IIASA, while the actual gaming experiments are expected to take place both at IIASA and at other locations convenient for interested groups

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of services for Schizophrenia in the UK across the entire care pathway in a single whole-disease model

Importance The existing economic models for schizophrenia often have 3 limitations; namely, they do not cover nonpharmacologic interventions, they report inconsistent conclusions for antipsychotics, and they have poor methodologic quality. Objectives To develop a whole-disease model for schizophrenia and use it to inform resource allocation decisions across the entire care pathway for schizophrenia in the UK. Design, Setting, and Participants This decision analytical model used a whole-disease model to simulate the entire disease and treatment pathway among a simulated cohort of 200 000 individuals at clinical high risk of psychoses or with a diagnosis of psychosis or schizophrenia being treated in primary, secondary, and tertiary care in the UK. Data were collected March 2016 to December 2018 and analyzed December 2018 to April 2019. Exposures The whole-disease model used discrete event simulation; its structure and input data were informed by published literature and expert opinion. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. Key interventions assessed included cognitive behavioral therapy, antipsychotic medication, family intervention, inpatient care, and crisis resolution and home treatment team. Main Outcomes and Measures Life-time costs and quality-adjusted life-years. Results In the simulated cohort of 200 000 individuals (mean [SD] age, 23.5 [5.1] years; 120 800 [60.4%] men), 66 400 (33.2%) were not at risk of psychosis, 69 800 (34.9%) were at clinical high risk of psychosis, and 63 800 (31.9%) had psychosis. The results of the whole-disease model suggest the following interventions are likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 ($25 552) per quality-adjusted life-year: practice as usual plus cognitive behavioral therapy for individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis (probability vs practice as usual alone, 0.96); a mix of hospital admission and crisis resolution and home treatment team for individuals with acute psychosis (probability vs hospital admission alone, 0.99); amisulpride (probability vs all other antipsychotics, 0.39), risperidone (probability vs all other antipsychotics, 0.30), or olanzapine (probability vs all other antipsychotics, 0.17) combined with family intervention for individuals with first-episode psychosis (probability vs family intervention or medication alone, 0.58); and clozapine for individuals with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (probability vs other medications, 0.81). Conclusions and Relevance The results of this study suggest that the current schizophrenia service configuration is not optimal. Cost savings and/or additional quality-adjusted life-years may be gained by replacing current interventions with more cost-effective interventions

On Fluctuations of a Nonmonotone Marked Point Process

The present article investigates a bivariate recurrent process, which can describe the behavior of a nonmonotone financial instrument observed at random times. We are able to find explicitly the joint distribution of the highest value of the instrument prior to its first drop using a game-theoretic approach.Исследован бивариантный рекуррентный процесс, с помощью которого можно описать поведение немонотонного финансового инструмента, наблюдаемое в случайные моменты времени. С использованием теоретико-игрового подхода явно определено объединенное распределение наибольшей величины инструмента, предшествующей его первому падению.Досліджено біваріантний рекурентний процес, за допомогою якого може бути описане поводження немонотонного фінансового інструмента, що спостерігається у випадкові моменти часу. З використанням теоретико-грального підходу явно визначено об’єднанe розподілення найбільшої величини інструмента, що передує його першому падінню

The antigenic components of the toxins of Cl. botulinum types C and D

Toxic broth filtrates of one A, one B, six C, and one D types Cl. botulinum, and the antitoxins produced by injecting these filtrates into goats have been tested, from the standpoint of working out the antigenic "make up" of the toxins. The results obtained indicate:- (1) The A and the B types are monospecific. (2) The C types contain three components (a) C₁ , (b) C₂ , and D. The D fraction is contained in only very slight amount. (3) The D type contains chiefly the D, but also a small quantity of the C fraction.The articles have been scanned in colour with a HP Scanjet 5590;300dpi. adobe Acrobat XI Pro was used to OCR the text and also for the merging and conversion to the final presentation PDF-format

Association of FCGR3A and FCGR3B haplotypes with rheumatoid arthritis and primary Sjögren's syndrome [POSTER PRESENTATION]

Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease that is thought to arise from a complex interaction between multiple genetic factors and environmental triggers. We have previously demonstrated an association between a Fc gamma receptor (FcγR) haplotype and RA in a cross-sectional cohort of RA patients. We have sought to confirm this association in an inception cohort of RA patients and matched controls. We also extended our study to investigate a second autoanti-body associated rheumatic disease, primary Sjögren's syndrome (PSS). Methods The FCGR3A-158F/V and FCGR3B-NA1/NA2 functional polymorphisms were examined for association in an inception cohort of RA patients (n = 448), and a well-characterised PSS cohort (n = 83) from the United Kingdom. Pairwise disequilibrium coefficients (D') were calculated in 267 Blood Service healthy controls. The EHPlus program was used to estimate haplotype frequencies for patients and controls and to determine whether significant linkage disequilibrium was present. A likelihood ratio test is performed to test for differences between the haplotype frequencies in cases and controls. A permutation procedure implemented in this program enabled 1000 permutations to be performed on all haplotype associations to assess significance. Results There was significant linkage disequilibrium between FCGR3A and FCGR3B (D' = -0.445, P = 0.001). There was no significant difference in the FCGR3A or FCGR3B allele or genotype frequencies in the RA or PSS patients compared with controls. However, there was a significant difference in the FCGR3A-FCGR3B haplotype distributions with increased homozygosity for the FCGR3A-FCGR3B 158V-NA2 haplotype in both our inception RA cohort (odds ratio = 2.15, 95% confidence interval = 1.1–4.2 P = 0.027) and PSS (odds ratio = 2.83, 95% confidence interval = 1.0–8.2, P = 0.047) compared with controls. The reference group for these analyses comprised individuals who did not possess a copy of the FCGR3A-FCGR3B 158V-NA2 haplotype. Conclusions We have confirmed our original findings of association between the FCGR3A-FCGR3B 158V-NA2 haplotype and RA in a new inception cohort of RA patients. This suggests that there may be an RA-susceptibility gene at this locus. The significant increased frequency of an identical haplotype in PSS suggests the FcγR genetic locus may contribute to the pathogenesis of diverse autoantibody-mediated rheumatic diseases