Comparative Analysis of Super-Kamiokande and SNO Solar-Neutrino Data and the Photospheric Magnetic Field

We analyze Super-Kamiokande, SNO, and photospheric magnetic-field data for the common time interval, namely the SNO D2O phase. Concerning rotational modulation, the magnetic-field power spectrum shows the strongest peaks at the second and sixth harmonics of the solar synodic rotation frequency [3 nu(rot) and 7 nu(rot)]. The restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset shows strong modulation at the second harmonic. The SNO D2O dataset shows weak modulation at that frequency, but strong modulation in the sixth-harmonic frequency band. We estimate the significance level of the correspondence of the Super-Kamiokande second-harmonic peak with the corresponding magnetic-field peak to be 0.0004, and the significance level of the correspondence of the SNO D2O sixth-harmonic peak with the corresponding magnetic-field peak to be 0.009. By estimating the amplitude of the modulation of the solar neutrino flux at the second harmonic from the restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset, we find that the weak power at that frequency in the SNO D2O power spectrum is not particularly surprising. Concerning 9.43 yr-1, we find no peak at this frequency in the power spectrum formed from the restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset, so it is no surprise that this peak does not show up in the SNO D2O dataset, either.Comment: 32 pages, 8 tables, 16 figure

Evidence for large superhumps in TX Col and V4742 Sgr

Since the discovery of the largest positive superhump period in TV Col, we have started a program to search for superhumps in CVs with large orbital periods. Here, we summarize preliminary results of TX Col and V4742 Sgr. TX Col is an intermediate polar with a 5.7-h orbital period. V4742 Sgr is a recent nova with no known periods. CCD unfiltered continuous photometry of these 2 objects was carried out during 56 nights in 2002-3. In TX Col, in addition to the orbital period of 5.7 h, we found peaks at 7.1 h and 5.0 h. These are interpreted as positive and negative superhumps correspondingly, although the effects of the quasi-periodic oscillations at about 2 h were not taken into consideration. In the light curve of V4742 Sgr 2 long periods are detected -- 6.1 and 5.4 h as well as a short-term period at 1.6 h. This result suggests that V4742 Sgr is an intermediate polar candidate and a permanent superhump system with a large orbital period (5.4 h) and a superhump period excess of 13 percent. If these results are confirmed, TX Col, V4742 Sgr and TV Col form a group of intermediate polars with extremely large superhump periods. There seems to be now growing evidence that superhumps can occur in intermediate polars with long orbital periods, which is very likely inconsistent with the theoretical prediction that superhumps can only occur in systems with mass ratios below 0.33. Alternatively, if the mass ratio in these systems is nevertheless below the theoretical limit, they should harbour undermassive secondaries and massive white dwarfs, near the Chandrasekhar limit, which would make them excellent candidates for progenitors of supernovae type Ia.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, 3 sty files, To appear in the proceedings of IAU JD5, `White Dwarfs: Galactic and Cosmological Probes', eds. Ed Sion, Stephane Vennes and Harry Shipman, Full abstract in pape

Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Analysis of bimodality in histograms formed from GALLEX and GNO solar neutrino data

A histogram display of the solar neutrino capture-rate measurements made by the GALLEX experiment appears to be bimodal, but that of the follow-on GNO experiment does not. To assess the significance of these results, we introduce a "bimodality index" based on the probability-transform procedure. This confirms that the GALLEX measurements are indeed bimodal (at the 99.98 percent confidence level), and that the GNO measurements are not. Tracking the bimodality index as a function of time shows that the strongest contribution to bimodality comes from runs 42 to 62, i.e. from the time interval 1995.1 to 1996.9. The bimodality index for the first half (runs 1 through 33) is 2.56, whereas that for the second half (runs 33 through 65) is 7.05. Power-spectrum analysis shows a similar distinction: the peaks in the power spectrum formed from the second half are stronger than those in the power spectrum formed from the first half, suggesting that bimodality and rotational modulation are related.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Combined analysis of solar neutrino and solar irradiance data: further evidence for variability of the solar neutrino flux and its implications concerning the solar core

A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 yr-1, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with sidereal frequency 12.85 yr-1. We find, by Monte Carlo calculations, that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10,000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 yr-1) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.Comment: 22 pages, 9 tables, 10 figure

Further Evidence Suggestive of a Solar Influence on Nuclear Decay Rates

Recent analyses of nuclear decay data show evidence of variations suggestive of a solar influence. Analyses of datasets acquired at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) both show evidence of an annual periodicity and of periodicities with sidereal frequencies in the neighborhood of 12.25 year^{-1} (at a significance level that we have estimated to be 10^{-17}). It is notable that this implied rotation rate is lower than that attributed to the solar radiative zone, suggestive of a slowly rotating solar core. This leads us to hypothesize that there may be an "inner tachocline" separating the core from the radiative zone, analogous to the "outer tachocline" that separates the radiative zone from the convection zone. The Rieger periodicity (which has a period of about 154 days, corresponding to a frequency of 2.37 year^{-1}) may be attributed to an r-mode oscillation with spherical-harmonic indices l=3, m=1, located in the outer tachocline. This suggests that we may test the hypothesis of a solar influence on nuclear decay rates by searching BNL and PTB data for evidence of a "Rieger-like" r-mode oscillation, with l=3, m=1, in the inner tachocline. The appropriate search band for such an oscillation is estimated to be 2.00-2.28 year^{-1}. We find, in both datasets, strong evidence of a periodicity at 2.11 year^{-1}. We estimate that the probability of obtaining these results by chance is 10^{-12}.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, v2 has a color corrected Fig 6, a corrected reference, and a corrected typ

Power Spectrum Analysis of Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt Decay-Rate Data: Evidence for Solar Rotational Modulation

Evidence for an anomalous annual periodicity in certain nuclear decay data has led to speculation concerning a possible solar influence on nuclear processes. We have recently analyzed data concerning the decay rates of Cl-36 and Si-32, acquired at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), to search for evidence that might be indicative of a process involving solar rotation. Smoothing of the power spectrum by weighted-running-mean analysis leads to a significant peak at frequency 11.18/yr, which is lower than the equatorial synodic rotation rates of the convection and radiative zones. This article concerns measurements of the decay rates of Ra-226 acquired at the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) in Germany. We find that a similar (but not identical) analysis yields a significant peak in the PTB dataset at frequency 11.21/yr, and a peak in the BNL dataset at 11.25/yr. The change in the BNL result is not significant since the uncertainties in the BNL and PTB analyses are estimated to be 0.13/yr and 0.07/yr, respectively. Combining the two running means by forming the joint power statistic leads to a highly significant peak at frequency 11.23/yr. We comment briefly on the possible implications of these results for solar physics and for particle physics.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figure

Time-dependent Stochastic Modeling of Solar Active Region Energy

A time-dependent model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented based on a stochastic jump-transition model (Wheatland and Glukhov 1998; Wheatland 2008; Wheatland 2009). The magnetic free energy of the model active region varies in time due to a prescribed (deterministic) rate of energy input and prescribed (random) flare jumps downwards in energy. The model has been shown to reproduce observed flare statistics, for specific time-independent choices for the energy input and flare transition rates. However, many solar active regions exhibit time variation in flare productivity, as exemplified by NOAA active region AR 11029 (Wheatland 2010). In this case a time-dependent model is needed. Time variation is incorporated for two cases: 1. a step change in the rates of flare jumps; and 2. a step change in the rate of energy supply to the system. Analytic arguments are presented describing the qualitative behavior of the system in the two cases. In each case the system adjusts by shifting to a new stationary state over a relaxation time which is estimated analytically. The new model retains flare-like event statistics. In each case the frequency-energy distribution is a power law for flare energies less than a time-dependent rollover set by the largest energy the system is likely to attain at a given time. For Case 1, the model exhibits a double exponential waiting-time distribution, corresponding to flaring at a constant mean rate during two intervals (before and after the step change), if the average energy of the system is large. For Case 2 the waiting-time distribution is a simple exponential, again provided the average energy of the system is large. Monte Carlo simulations of Case~1 are presented which confirm the analytic estimates. The simulation results provide a qualitative model for observed flare statistics in active region AR 11029.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure