Childhood IQ and risk of bipolar disorder in adulthood: prospective birth cohort study

Background: Intellectual ability may be an endophenotypic marker for bipolar disorder. Aims: Within a large birth cohort, we aimed to assess whether childhood IQ (including both verbal IQ (VIQ) and performance IQ (PIQ) subscales) was predictive of lifetime features of bipolar disorder assessed in young adulthood. Method: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a large UK birth cohort, to test for an association between measures of childhood IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features assessed at age 22–23 years using the Hypomania Checklist-32 (HCL-32; n=1881 individuals). An ordinary least squares linear regression model was used, with normal childhood IQ (range 90–109) as the referent group. We adjusted analyses for confounding factors, including gender, ethnicity, handedness, maternal social class at recruitment, maternal age, maternal history of depression and maternal education. Results: There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22–23 years (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.159 (95% CI 0.120–0.198), P>0.001). Individuals in the lowest decile of manic features had a mean full-scale IQ (FSIQ) which was almost 10 points lower than those in the highest decile of manic features: mean FSIQ 100.71 (95% CI 98.74–102.6) v. 110.14 (95% CI 107.79–112.50), P>0.001. The association between IQ and manic features was present for FSIQ, VIQ and for PIQ but was strongest for VIQ. Conclusions: A higher childhood IQ score, and high VIQ in particular, may represent a marker of risk for the later development of bipolar disorder. This finding has implications for understanding of how liability to bipolar disorder may have been selected through generations. It will also inform future genetic studies at the interface of intelligence, creativity and bipolar disorder and is relevant to the developmental trajectory of bipolar disorder. It may also improve approaches to earlier detection and treatment of bipolar disorder in adolescents and young adults

Book Reviews

Book Reviews -- The John Randolph Tucker Lectures--1953-1956 Lexington, Virginia School of Law, Washington and Lee University, 1957. Pp. 208. reviewer: Paul Carrington ================================= Desegregation and the Law By Albert P. Blaustein and Clarence Clyde Ferguson, Jr. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press,1957. Pp. xiv, 332. reviewer: J. Allen Smith ================================= The Federal Tort Claims Act By William B. Wright Forward by Emile Z. Berman New York: Central Book Co., 1957. Pp. 248. reviewer: Stanley D. Ros

Deep Distributional Time Series Models and the Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Prices

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with rich feature vectors of past values can provide accurate point forecasts for series that exhibit complex serial dependence. We propose two approaches to constructing deep time series probabilistic models based on a variant of RNN called an echo state network (ESN). The first is where the output layer of the ESN has stochastic disturbances and a shrinkage prior for additional regularization. The second approach employs the implicit copula of an ESN with Gaussian disturbances, which is a deep copula process on the feature space. Combining this copula with a non-parametrically estimated marginal distribution produces a deep distributional time series model. The resulting probabilistic forecasts are deep functions of the feature vector and also marginally calibrated. In both approaches, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the models and compute forecasts. The proposed deep time series models are suitable for the complex task of forecasting intraday electricity prices. Using data from the Australian National Electricity Market, we show that our models provide accurate probabilistic price forecasts. Moreover, the models provide a flexible framework for incorporating probabilistic forecasts of electricity demand as additional features. We demonstrate that doing so in the deep distributional time series model in particular, increases price forecast accuracy substantially

Are women with major depression in pregnancy identifiable in population health data?

BACKGROUND: Although record linkage of routinely collected health datasets is a valuable research resource, most datasets are established for administrative purposes and not for health outcomes research. In order for meaningful results to be extrapolated to specific populations, the limitations of the data and linkage methodology need to be investigated and clarified. It is the objective of this study to investigate the differences in ascertainment which may arise between a hospital admission dataset and a dispensing claims dataset, using major depression in pregnancy as an example. The safe use of antidepressants in pregnancy is an ongoing issue for clinicians with around 10% of pregnant women suffer from depression. As the birth admission will be the first admission to hospital during their pregnancy for most women, their use of antidepressants, or their depressive condition, may not be revealed to the attending hospital clinicians. This may result in adverse outcomes for the mother and infant. METHODS: Population-based de-identified data were provided from the Western Australian Data Linkage System linking the administrative health records of women with a delivery to related records from the Midwives’ Notification System, the Hospital Morbidity Data System and the national Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme dataset. The women with depression during their pregnancy were ascertained in two ways: women with dispensing records relating to dispensed antidepressant medicines with an WHO ATC code to the 3rd level, pharmacological subgroup, ‘N06A Antidepressants’; and, women with any hospital admission during pregnancy, including the birth admission, if a comorbidity was recorded relating to depression. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2005, there were 96698 births in WA. At least one antidepressant was dispensed to 4485 (4.6%) pregnant women. There were 3010 (3.1%) women with a comorbidity related to depression recorded on their delivery admission, or other admission to hospital during pregnancy. There were a total of 7495 pregnancies identified by either set of records. Using data linkage, we determined that these records represented 6596 individual pregnancies. Only 899 pregnancies were found in both groups (13.6% of all cases). 80% of women dispensed an antidepressant did not have depression recorded as a comorbidity on their hospital records. A simple capture-recapture calculation suggests the prevalence of depression in this population of pregnant women to be around 16%. CONCLUSION: No single data source is likely to provide a complete health profile for an individual. For women with depression in pregnancy and dispensed antidepressants, the hospital admission data do not adequately capture all cases

Borderline personality and attention-deficit hyperactivity traits in childhood are associated with hypomanic features in early adulthood

Background There is limited understanding of the symptomatic development of bipolar disorder from childhood to early adulthood. Aims We assessed whether borderline personality disorder traits, ADHD, and emotional, behavioural and social difficulties during childhood were associated with hypomania assessed in young adulthood. Method We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), to examine associations between measures of childhood psychopathology and lifetime hypomanic features assessed at age 22–23 years using the Hypomania Checklist-32 (HCL-32; n = 3,372). We also conducted a factor analysis of the HCL to identify latent constructs underlying hypomania, and the extent to which childhood psychopathology was associated with these. Results We identified two factors of the HCL corresponding to energy/mood and risk-taking/irritability. There was evidence of association between childhood borderline personality disorder traits and both hypomania factors, with evidence that the association was stronger with the risk-taking/irritability factor. All individual borderline traits, with the exception of fear of abandonment, were associated with hypomania. There was also evidence of association between most other measures of childhood psychopathology (ADHD, hyperactivity, conduct problems, peer relationship problems and reduced prosocial behaviour) and the risk-taking/irritability factor, but much less consistent evidence of association with the energy/mood factor. Limitations The HCL cannot diagnose bipolar disorder and may be subject to reporting bias. Conclusions A broad range of childhood psychopathologies may represent early markers of risk for hypomania. Further studies are required to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations, and to inform earlier detection of bipolar disorder

Coincidence Anticipation Timing Performance during an Acute Bout of Brisk Walking in Older Adults: Effect of Stimulus Speed

This study examined coincidence anticipation timing (CAT) performance at slow and fast stimulus speeds before, during, and after an acute bout of walking in adults aged 60–76 years. Results from a series of repeated measures ANOVAs indicated significant rest versus exercise × stimulus speed × time interactions for absolute and variable errors (both P=0.0001) whereby absolute and variable error scores, when stimulus speed was slow, improved as the duration of exercise increased. When stimulus speed was fast there were significantly greater absolute and variable errors at 18 minutes of the walking bout. There was also greater error at 18 minutes during walking compared to rest. These results suggest that, in a task involving walking and CAT, stimulus speeds plays an important role; specifically walking (exercise) enhances CAT performance at slow stimulus speeds but reduces CAT performance at fast stimulus speeds. The implications are that in everyday situations, where events require dual-task responses to be made at different speeds, for example, walking on the pavement whilst avoiding a crowd, compared to crossing a busy road, an understanding of how different stimulus speeds influence dual-task performance is extremely important, particularly in the older adult population