Studying the effects of CO2 emissions trading on the electricity market - A multi-agent-based approach

In this paper, we present a basic approach for modelling electricity and emissions markets under the paradigm of agent-based computational economics (ACE). Different market players will be modelled as independent entities using au- tonomous software agents; they operate and communicate independently on the power market and the market for emission allowances. The agent types involved and their relationships are described. The aim of the model is to investigate the in- terplay between the market players, with a focus lying on the dynamics in a market for CO2 emission allowances and its effects on the electricity market. Simulations with this model will enable us to draw conclusions about the economic efficiency of different possible emissions trading options. These findings can possibly help deci- sion makers to evaluate the testing phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (from 2005 to 2007) in a qualified way

Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz VI – Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030 - Advances in Systems Analysis 5

In the “Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection VI” project the greenhouse gas emissions for Germany are assessed based on model analyses for detailed specific energy and climate policy instruments.In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) all measures which have been implemented by 8 July 2011 (and those which entered into force for the first time or were changed after 1.1.2005) are taken into consideration. Compared to the reference year of 1990, a 34 % reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases falling under the Kyoto Protocol4 is achieved by 2020. By 2030 the emissions are reduced by 44 %. Over half f of the emission reductions originate from policies that target the energy conversion sectors, most notably from electricity production. In terms of the instrument-specific effects, the largest share of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions stems from instruments geared to saving electricity (e.g. the emission trading scheme (ETS))5, building rehabilitation programs, the promotion of renewable energies in electricity and heat production, (European) efficiency standards for passenger cars and the use of bio fuels. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases by 9 % by 2020 and by 19 % by 2030 compared to 20086. The contribution made by renewable energies to the primary energy supply approximately doubles by 2020; by 2030 the contribution increases by approx. a factor of 2.5. Overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases from approx. 9 % in 2008 to 19.5 % in 2020 and to more than 27 % in 2030. Alongside the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, substantial emission reductions in the Current Policy Scenario are achieved by measures and developments in industrial processes and waste management.In the Energy Transformation Scenario (ETS) additional measures which go beyond the ones described above are taken into account. These additional measures bring about an emission reduction of approx. 42 % by 2020 and of more than 58 % by 2030 (compared to 1990). More than half of the emission reductions achieved stem from the energy conversion sectors and, above all, electricity production.The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors.Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030

Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz : auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emmissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Für das Projekt „Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz V“ (Politikszenarien V) wurden Szenarien für die Entwicklung der Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland für den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2030 erarbeitet. Im Rahmen der Szenarienanalysen erfolgt eine detaillierte Bewertung der jeweiligen klima- und energiepolitischen Maßnahmen hinsichtlich ihrer Effekte für die Entwicklung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen. Berücksichtigt werden dabei die Emissionen der vom Kyoto-Protokoll erfassten Treibhausgase Kohlendioxid (CO$_{2}$), Methan (CH4), Lachgas (N$_{2}$O), halogenierte Fluorkohlenwasserstoffe (HFKW), perfluorierte Kohlenwasserstoffe (FKW) und Schwefelhexafluorid (SF$_{6}$) für die Quellsektoren Energie, Industrieprozesse, Produktverwendung, Landwirtschaft und Abfallwirtschaft. Der Quellbereich Landnutzungsänderungen und Forstwirtschaft wurde in den Analysen nicht berücksichtigt [...

Wind power merit-order and feed-in-tariffs effect: A variability analysis of the Spanish electricity market

The incipient large-scale energy-storage technologies are not sufficiently developed yet, which means that the wind power production depends on the wind speed at every moment. This, along with the fact that the wind resource is not constant over time, makes wind power production quite variable. Therefore, an artificial intelligence-based technique (M5P algorithm) is applied to empirical hourly data to determine the influence of wind power technology on the spot market for different levels of wind resource in 2012. It concludes that wind power depressed the spot prices between 7.42 and 10.94 /MW h for a wind power production of 90% and 110% of the real one, respectively. Furthermore, taking into account the important presence of wind power in the Spanish generation mix, the above range has been extended up to 0% in order to determine the worst and best level of wind power production for the Spanish electrical system (from an economical point of view). To do so, both feed-in-tariffs and wind power impact on spot market (merit order effect) have been accounted in accordance with the different levels of wind power production. Since empirical data from 2012 have been used to conduct the research, the results presented in this paper may provide policy makers with a worst and best-case scenario to discuss about the convenience of the last cutting expenses over wind power technology in Spain. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved