Eyewitness identification evidence: procedural developments and the ends of adjudicative accuracy

This article provides critical analysis of some of the more notable procedural developments relating to eyewitness identification evidence over the past decade

Identifying Sources and Sinks in the Presence of Multiple Agents with Gaussian Process Vector Calculus

In systems of multiple agents, identifying the cause of observed agent dynamics is challenging. Often, these agents operate in diverse, non-stationary environments, where models rely on hand-crafted environment-specific features to infer influential regions in the system's surroundings. To overcome the limitations of these inflexible models, we present GP-LAPLACE, a technique for locating sources and sinks from trajectories in time-varying fields. Using Gaussian processes, we jointly infer a spatio-temporal vector field, as well as canonical vector calculus operations on that field. Notably, we do this from only agent trajectories without requiring knowledge of the environment, and also obtain a metric for denoting the significance of inferred causal features in the environment by exploiting our probabilistic method. To evaluate our approach, we apply it to both synthetic and real-world GPS data, demonstrating the applicability of our technique in the presence of multiple agents, as well as its superiority over existing methods.Comment: KDD '18 Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, Pages 1254-1262, 9 pages, 5 figures, conference submission, University of Oxford. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1709.0235

An economic analysis of a pneumococcal vaccine programme in people aged over 64 years in a developed country setting.

BACKGROUND: Polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination for older adults is being introduced in developed country settings. Evidence of protection by this vaccine against pneumococcal pneumonia, or confirmation that illness and death from bacteraemia are prevented, is currently limited. Decisions are often made based on partial information. We examined the policy implications by exploring the potential economic benefit to society and the health sector of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults. METHODS: A model to estimate the potential cost savings and cost-effectiveness of a polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine programme was based on costs collected from patients, the literature, and routine health-services data. The effect of a pneumococcal vaccine (compared with no vaccination) was examined in a hypothetical cohort aged over 64 years. The duration of protection was assumed to be 10 years, with or without a booster at 5 years. RESULTS: If it were effective against morbidity from pneumococcal pneumonia, the main burden from pneumococcal disease, the vaccine could be cost-neutral to society or the health sector at low efficacy (28 and 37.5%, respectively, without boosting and with 70% coverage). If it were effective against morbidity from bacteraemia only, the vaccine's efficacy would need to be 75 and 89%, respectively. If protection against both morbidity and mortality from pneumococcal bacteraemia was 50%, the net cost to society would be 2500 pounds per year of life saved ( 3365 pounds from the health-sector perspective). Results were sensitive to incidence, case-fatality rates, and costs of illness. CONCLUSIONS: A vaccine with moderate efficacy against bacteraemic illness and death would be cost-effective. If it also protected against pneumonia, it would be cost-effective even if its efficacy were low

Is intra-abdominal hypertension a missing factor that drives multiple organ dysfunction syndrome?

In a recent issue of Critical Care, Cheng and colleagues conducted a rabbit model study that demonstrated that intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) may damage both gut anatomy and function. With only 6 hours of IAH at 25 mmHg, these authors observed an 80% reduction in mucosal blood flow, an exponential increase in mucosal permeability, and erosion and necrosis of the jejunal villi. Such dramatic findings should remind all caring for the critically ill that IAH may severely damage the normal gut barrier functions and thus may be reasonably expected to facilitate bacterial and mediator translocation. The potential contribution of IAH as a confounding factor in the efficacy of selective decontamination of the digestive tract should be considered

Statistical Models of Reconstructed Phase Spaces for Signal Classification

This paper introduces a novel approach to the analysis and classification of time series signals using statistical models of reconstructed phase spaces. With sufficient dimension, such reconstructed phase spaces are, with probability one, guaranteed to be topologically equivalent to the state dynamics of the generating system, and, therefore, may contain information that is absent in analysis and classification methods rooted in linear assumptions. Parametric and nonparametric distributions are introduced as statistical representations over the multidimensional reconstructed phase space, with classification accomplished through methods such as Bayes maximum likelihood and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The technique is demonstrated on heart arrhythmia classification and speech recognition. This new approach is shown to be a viable and effective alternative to traditional signal classification approaches, particularly for signals with strong nonlinear characteristics

Retrograde transport pathways utilised by viruses and protein toxins

A model has been presented for retrograde transport of certain toxins and viruses from the cell surface to the ER that suggests an obligatory interaction with a glycolipid receptor at the cell surface. Here we review studies on the ER trafficking cholera toxin, Shiga and Shiga-like toxins, Pseudomonas exotoxin A and ricin, and compare the retrograde routes followed by these protein toxins to those of the ER trafficking SV40 and polyoma viruses. We conclude that there is in fact no obligatory requirement for a glycolipid receptor, nor even with a protein receptor in a lipid-rich environment. Emerging data suggests instead that there is no common pathway utilised for retrograde transport by all of these pathogens, the choice of route being determined by the particular receptor utilised

A cohort study of the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in older people, performed using the United Kingdom general practice research database.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of influenza vaccination against hospitalization and death can only ethically be assessed in observational studies. A concern is that individuals who are vaccinated are healthier than individuals who are not vaccinated, potentially biasing estimates of effectiveness upward. METHODS: We conducted a historical cohort study of individuals >64 years of age, for whom there were data available in the General Practice Research Database for 1989 to 1999 in England and Wales. Rates of admissions for acute respiratory diseases and rates of death due to respiratory disease were compared over 692,819 person-years in vaccine recipients and 1,534,280 person-years in vaccine nonrecipients. RESULTS: The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against hospitalizations for acute respiratory disease was 21% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-26%). The rate reduction attributable to vaccination was 4.15 hospitalizations/100,000 person-weeks in the influenza season. Among vaccine recipients, no important reduction in the number of admissions to the hospital was seen outside influenza seasons. The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against deaths due to respiratory disease was 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). A greater proportionate reduction was seen among people without medical disorders, but absolute rate reduction was higher in individuals with medical disorders, compared with individuals without such disorders (6.14 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks vs. 3.12 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks). Clear protection against death due to all causes was not seen. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination reduces the number of hospitalizations and deaths due to respiratory disease, after correction for confounding in individuals >64 years of age who had a high risk or a low risk for influenza. For elderly people, untargeted influenza vaccination is of confirmed benefit against serious outcomes