225 research outputs found
Systematic attribution of observed Southern Hemisphere circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability
A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the
observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over
recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of
occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern
Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave-3 pattern which is associated
with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have
either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data
or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability
impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular
trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season.
However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and
particularly in the austral winter and early spring when midlatitude
blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not play a role. Here
we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using
a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and
observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies
emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral
summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of
these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered.
Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the
signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that
effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of
the secular trends
Impact of surface forcing on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in the Australia–New Zealand sector
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 8476–8494, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00860.1.Characteristics of atmospheric blocking in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are explored in atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3, with a particular focus on the Australia–New Zealand sector. Preferred locations of blocking in SH observations and the associated seasonal cycle are well represented in the AGCM simulations, but the observed magnitude of blocking is underestimated throughout the year, particularly in late winter and spring. This is related to overly zonal flow due to an enhanced meridional pressure gradient in the model, which results in a decreased amplitude of the longwave trough/ridge pattern. A range of AGCM sensitivity experiments explores the effect on SH blocking of tropical heating, midlatitude sea surface temperatures, and land–sea temperature gradients created over the Australian continent during austral winter. The combined effects of tropical heating and extratropical temperature gradients are further explored in a configuration that is favorable for blocking in the Australia–New Zealand sector with warm SST anomalies to the north of Australia, cold to the southwest of Australia, warm to the southeast, and cool Australian land temperatures. The blocking-favorable configuration indicates a significant strengthening of the subtropical jet and a reduction in midlatitude flow, which results from changes in the thermal wind. While these overall changes in mean climate, predominantly forced by the tropical heating, enhance blocking activity, the magnitude of atmospheric blocking compared to observations is still underestimated. The blocking-unfavorable configuration with surface forcing anomalies of opposite sign results in a weakening subtropical jet, enhanced midlatitude flow, and significantly reduced blocking.C.C.U.
received support from the Australian Research Council
through funding awarded to the Centre of Excellence
for Climate System Science and the Penzance Endowed
Fund at WHOI. P.C.M., M.J.P., and J.S.R. were funded
by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and the
Managing Climate Variability R&D Program.2014-05-0
Integrated groundwater management: An overview of concepts and challenges
Managing water is a grand challenge problem and has become one of humanity’s foremost priorities. Surface water resources are typically societally managed and relatively well understood; groundwater resources, however, are often hidden and more difficult to conceptualize. Replenishment rates of groundwater cannot match past and current rates of depletion in many parts of the world. In addition, declining quality of the remaining groundwater commonly cannot support all agricultural, industrial and urban demands and ecosystem functioning, especially in the developed world. In the developing world, it can fail to even meet essential human needs. The issue is: how do we manage this crucial resource in an acceptable way, one that considers the sustainability of the resource for future generations and the socioeconomic and environmental impacts? In many cases this means restoring aquifers of concern to some sustainable equilibrium over a negotiated period of time, and seeking opportunities for better managing groundwater conjunctively with surface water and other resource uses. However, there are many, often-interrelated, dimensions to managing groundwater effectively. Effective groundwater management is underpinned by sound science (biophysical and social) that actively engages the wider community and relevant stakeholders in the decision making process. Generally, an integrated approach will mean “thinking beyond the aquifer”, a view which considers the wider context of surface water links, catchment management and cross-sectoral issues with economics, energy, climate, agriculture and the environment. The aim of the book is to document for the first time the dimensions and requirements of sound integrated groundwater management (IGM). The primary focus is on groundwater management within its system, but integrates linkages beyond the aquifer. The book provides an encompassing synthesis for researchers, practitioners and water resource managers on the concepts and tools required for defensible IGM, including how IGM can be applied to achieve more sustainable socioeconomic and environmental outcomes, and key challenges of IGM. The book is divided into five parts: integration overview and problem settings; governance; socioeconomics; biophysical aspects; and modelling and decision support. However, IGM is integrated by definition, thus these divisions should be considered a convenience for presenting the topics rather than hard and fast demarcations of the topic area
Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation
The Earth has warmed over the past century. The warming rate (amount of warming over a given period) varies in time and space. Observations show a recent increase in global mean warming rate, which is initially maintained in model projections, but which diverges substantially in future depending on the emissions scenario followed. Scenarios that stabilize forcing lead to much lower warming rates, as the rate depends on the change in forcing, not the amount. Warming rates vary spatially across the planet, but most areas show a shift toward higher warming rates in recent decades. The areal distribution of warming rates is also changing shape to include a longer tail in recent decades. Some areas of the planet are already experiencing extreme warming rates of about 1 °C/decade. The fat tail in areal distribution of warming rates is pronounced in model runs when the forcing and global mean warming rate is increasing, and indicates a climate state more prone to regime transitions. The area-proportion of the Earth displaying warming/cooling trends is shown to be directly related to the global mean warming rate, especially for trends of length 15 years and longer. Since the global mean warming rate depends on the forcing rate, the proportion of warming/cooling trend areas in future also depends critically on the choice of future forcing scenario. Keywords: Climate variability, Climate projection, Transient response, Extreme warmin
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Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts
In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context
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Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown
It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims
The importance of interacting climate modes on Australia’s contribution to global carbon cycle extremes
The global carbon cycle is highly sensitive to climate-driven fluctuations of precipitation, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. This was clearly manifested by a 20% increase of the global terrestrial C sink in 2011 during the strongest sustained La Niña since 1917. However, inconsistencies exist between El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) cycles and precipitation in the historical record; for example, significant ENSO-precipitation correlations were present in only 31% of the last 100 years, and often absent in wet years. To resolve these inconsistencies, we used an advanced temporal scaling method for identifying interactions amongst three key climate modes (El Niño, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the southern annular mode). When these climate modes synchronised (1999-2012), drought and extreme precipitation were observed across Australia. The interaction amongst these climate modes, more than the effect of any single mode, was associated with large fluctuations in precipitation and productivity. The long-term exposure of vegetation to this arid environment has favoured a resilient flora capable of large fluctuations in photosynthetic productivity and explains why Australia was a major contributor not only to the 2011 global C sink anomaly but also to global reductions in photosynthetic C uptake during the previous decade of drought
Crop Updates 2010 - Farming Systems
This session covers twenty papers from different authors:
Pests and Disease
1. Preserving phosphine for use in Grain Storage Industry, Christopher R Newman, Department of Agriculture and Food
Farming Systems Research
2. Demonstrating the benefits of grazing canola in Western Australia, Jonathan England, Stephen Gherardi and Mohammad Amjad, Department of Agriculture and Food
3. Buloke barley yield when pasture-cropped across subtropical perennial pastures, David Ferris, Department of Agriculture and Food, Phil Ward and Roger Lawes, CSIRO
4. Is pasture cropping viable in WA? Grower perceptions and EverCrop initiatives to evaluate, David Ferris, Tim Wiley, Perry Dolling, Department of Agriculture and Food, Philip Barrett-Lennard, Evergreen farming
5. Best-bet management for dual-purpose canola, John Kirkegaard, Susan Sprague, Hugh Dove and Walter Kelman, CSIRO, Canberra, Peter Hamblin, Agritech Research, Young, NSW
6. Pasture in cropping systems – with and without sheep, Brad Nutt and Angelo Loi, Department of Agriculture and Food
7. Can technology substitute for a lupin break? Wayne Parker, Department of Agriculture and Food
8. Canola row spacing with and without long term stubble retention on a sandy clay loam at Merredin, Glen Riethmuller, Department of Agriculture and Food
9. Impact of stubble retention on water balance and crop yield, Phil Ward1, Ken Flower2,3, Neil Cordingley2 and Shayne Micin1, 1CSIRO, Wembley, Western Australia, 2Western Australian No-Till Farmers Association, 3University of Western Australia
Analysis and Modelling
10. Using POAMA rainfall forecasts for crop management in South-West WA, Senthold Asseng1, Peter McIntosh2,3, Mike Pook2,3, James Risbey2,3, Guomin
Wang3, Oscar Alves3, Ian Foster4, Imma Farre4 and Nirav Khimashia1, 1CSIRO Plant Industry, Perth, 2CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, 3Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), A partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne, 4Department of Agriculture and Food
11. Adaption to changing climates and variability – results of the Agribusiness Changing Climates regional workshop, Anderson W3, Beard D3, Blake J3, Grieve R1, Lang M3, Lemon J3, McTaggart R3, Gray D3, Price M2 and Stephens D3, 1Roderick Grieve Farm Management Consultants, 2Coffey International P/L, 3Department of Agriculture and Food
12. Farmers’ management of seasonal variability and climate change in WA, DA Beard, DM Gray, P Carmody, Department of Agriculture and Food
13. Is there a value in having a frost forecast for wheat in South-West WA? Imma Farre1, Senthold Asseng2, Ian Foster1 and Doug Abrecht3, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, CSIRO, Floreat, 2CSIRO Plant Industry, Perth
3Department of Agriculture and Food, Centre for Cropping Systems
14. Does buying rainfall pay? Greg Kirk, Planfarm Agricultural Consultants
15. Which region in the WA wheatbelt makes best use of rainfall? Peter Rowe, Bankwest Agribusiness
16. POAMA – the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia, Guomin Wang and Oscar Alves, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), A partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne
17. Exploring the link between water use efficiency and farm profitability, Cameron Weeks, Planfarm and Peter Tozer, PRT Consulting
Precision Agriculture
18. A plethora of paddock information is available – how does it stack up? Derk Bakker, Department of Agriculture and Food
18. Variable rate prescription mapping for lime inputs based on electromagnetic surveying and deep soil testing, Frank D’Emden, Quenten Knight and Luke Marquis, Precision Agronomics, Australia
19. Trial design and analysis using precision agriculture and farmer’s equipment, Roger Lawes, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Centre for Environment and Life
Sciences, Floreat
20. Farmer perspectives of precision agriculture in Western Australia: Issues and the way forward, Dr Roger Mandel, Curtin Universit
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