The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: the role of energy fluxes and vertical stability

The changes in Earth's precession have an impact on the tropical precipitation. This has been attributed to the changes in seasonal solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The primary mechanism that has been proposed is the change in thermal gradient between the two hemispheres. This may be adequate to understand the zonal mean changes, but cannot explain the variations between land and oceans. We have used a simple model of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to unravel how precipitation changes with precession. Our model attributes the changes in precipitation to the changes in energy fluxes and vertical stability. We include the horizontal advection terms in this model, which were neglected in the earlier studies. The final response of the land and oceans is a result of complex feedbacks triggered by the initial changes in the insolation. We find that the changes in precipitation over the land are mainly driven by changes in insolation, but over the oceans, precipitation changes on account of changes in surface fluxes and vertical stability. Hence insolation can be a trigger for changes in precipitation on orbital timescales, but surface energy and vertical stability play an important role too. The African monsoon intensifies during a precession minimum (higher summer insolation). This intensification is mainly due to the changes in vertical stability. The precipitation over the Bay of Bengal decreases for minimum precession. This is on account of a remote response to the enhanced convective heating to the west of the Bay of Bengal. This weakens the surface winds and thus leads to a decrease in the surface latent heat fluxes and hence the precipitation.</p

Lack of trust in maternal support is associated with negative interpretations of ambiguous maternal behavior

Attachment theory assumes that children who lack trust in maternal availability for support are more inclined to interpret maternal behavior in congruence with their expectation that mother will remain unavailable for support. To provide the first test of this assumption, early adolescents (9-13 years old) were asked to assess whether ambiguous interactions with mother should be interpreted in a positive or a negative way. In our sample (n = 322), results showed that early adolescents' lack of trust in their mother's availability for support was related to more negative interpretations of maternal behavior. The associations remained significant after controlling for depressive mood. The importance of these findings for our understanding of attachment theory, attachment stability, and clinical practice are discussed

Comparison of three different application routes of butyrate to improve colonic anastomotic strength in rats

Despite extensive research, anastomotic leakage (AL) remains one of the most dreaded complications after colorectal surgery. Since butyrate enemas are known to enhance anastomotic healing, several administration routes have been explored in this study. Three intraluminal approaches involving butyrate were investigated: (1) butyrin-elucidating patch, (2) a single injection of hyaluronan-butyrate (HA-But) prior to construction of the proximal anastomosis and (3) rectal hyaluronan-butyrate (HA-But) enemas designed for distal anastomoses. The main outcome was AL and secondary outcomes were bursting pressure, histological analysis of the anastomosis, zymography to detect MMP activity and qPCR for gene expression of MMP2, MMP9, MUC2 and TFF3. RESULTS: Neither the patches nor the injections led to a reduction of AL in experiments 1 and 2. In experiment 3, a significant reduction of AL was accomplished with the (HA-But) enema compared to the control group together with a higher bursting pressure. Histological analysis detected only an increased inflammation in experiment 2 in the hyaluronan injection group compared to the control group. No other differences were found regarding wound healing. Zymography identified a decreased proenzyme of MMP9 when HA-But was administered as a rectal enema. qPCR did not show any significant differences between groups in any experiment. CONCLUSION: Butyrate enemas are effective in the enhancement of colonic anastomosis. Enhanced butyrate-based approaches designed to reduce AL in animal models for both proximal and distal anastomoses were not more effective than were butyrate enemas alone. Further research should focus on how exogenous butyrate can improve anastomotic healing after gastrointestinal surgery

Cauchy's infinitesimals, his sum theorem, and foundational paradigms

Cauchy's sum theorem is a prototype of what is today a basic result on the convergence of a series of functions in undergraduate analysis. We seek to interpret Cauchy's proof, and discuss the related epistemological questions involved in comparing distinct interpretive paradigms. Cauchy's proof is often interpreted in the modern framework of a Weierstrassian paradigm. We analyze Cauchy's proof closely and show that it finds closer proxies in a different modern framework. Keywords: Cauchy's infinitesimal; sum theorem; quantifier alternation; uniform convergence; foundational paradigms.Comment: 42 pages; to appear in Foundations of Scienc

The Cardiac Care Bridge transitional care program for the management of older high-risk cardiac patients: An economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial

Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Cardiac Care Bridge (CCB) nurse-led transitional care program in older (≥70 years) cardiac patients compared to usual care. Methods The intervention group (n = 153) received the CCB program consisting of case management, disease management and home-based cardiac rehabilitation in the transition from hospital to home on top of usual care and was compared with the usual care group (n = 153). Outcomes included a composite measure of first all-cause unplanned hospital readmission or mortality, Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and societal costs within six months follow-up. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Statistical uncertainty surrounding Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was estimated by using bootstrapped seemingly unrelated regression. Results No significant between group differences in the composite outcome of readmission or mortality nor in societal costs were observed. QALYs were statistically significantly lower in the intervention group, mean difference -0.03 (95% CI: -0.07; -0.02). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that the maximum probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 0.31 at a Willingness To Pay (WTP) of €0,00 and 0.14 at a WTP of €50,000 per composite outcome prevented and 0.32 and 0.21, respectively per QALY gained. Conclusion The CCB program was on average more expensive and less effective compared to usual care, indicating that the CCB program is dominated by usual care. Therefore, the CCB program cannot be considered cost-effective compared to usual care

Influence of supramolecular forces on the linear viscoelasticity of gluten

Stress relaxation behavior of hydrated gluten networks was investigated by means of rheometry combined with μ-computed tomography (μ-CT) imaging. Stress relaxation behavior was followed over a wide temperature range (0–70 °C). Modulation of intermolecular bonds was achieved with urea or ascorbic acid in an effort to elucidate the presiding intermolecular interactions over gluten network relaxation. Master curves of viscoelasticity were constructed, and relaxation spectra were computed revealing three relaxation regimes for all samples. Relaxation commences with a well-defined short-time regime where Rouse-like modes dominate, followed by a power law region displaying continuous relaxation concluding in a terminal zone. In the latter zone, poroelastic relaxation due to water migration in the nanoporous structure of the network also contributes to the stress relief in the material. Hydrogen bonding between adjacent protein chains was identified as the determinant force that influences the relaxation of the networks. Changes in intermolecular interactions also resulted in changes in microstructure of the material that was also linked to the relaxation behavior of the networks

Cost-effectiveness of a stepped care program to prevent depression among primary care patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and/or coronary heart disease and subthreshold depression in comparison with usual care

Background Patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) and/or coronary heart disease (CHD) are at high risk to develop major depression. Preventing incident major depression may be an important tool in reducing the personal and societal burden of depression. The aim of the current study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a stepped care program to prevent major depression (Step-Dep) in diabetes mellitus type 2 and/or coronary heart disease patients with subthreshold depression in comparison with usual care. Methods An economic evaluation with 12 months follow-up was conducted alongside a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial from a societal perspective. Participants received care as usual (n = 140) or Step-Dep (n = 96) which consisted of four sequential treatment steps: watchful waiting, guided self-help, problem solving treatment and referral to a general practitioner. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cumulative incidence of major depression. Costs were measured every 3 months. Missing data was imputed using multiple imputation. Uncertainty around cost-effectiveness outcomes was estimated using bootstrapping and presented in cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability curves. Results There were no significant differences in QALYs or depression incidence between treatment groups. Secondary care costs (mean difference €1644, 95% CI €344; €3370) and informal care costs (mean difference €1930, 95% CI €528; €4089) were significantly higher in the Step-Dep group than in the usual care group. The difference in total societal costs (€1001, 95% CI €-3975; €6409) was not statistically significant. The probability of the Step-Dep intervention being cost-effective was low, with a maximum of 0.41 at a ceiling ratio of €30,000 per QALY gained and 0.32 at a ceiling ratio of €0 per prevented case of major depression. Conclusions The Step-Dep intervention is not cost-effective compared to usual care in a population of patients with DM2/CHD and subthreshold depression. Therefore, widespread implementation cannot be recommended

PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model

We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates water use. Sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption, and return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step and interact directly with the simulated hydrology. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been fully rewritten in Python and PCRaster Python and has a modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, and development of model components. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been implemented at 5 arcmin resolution, but a version parameterized at 30 arcmin resolution is also available. Both versions are available as open-source codes on https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). PCR-GLOBWB 2 has its own routines for groundwater dynamics and surface water routing. These relatively simple routines can alternatively be replaced by dynamically coupling PCR-GLOBWB 2 to a global two-layer groundwater model and 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe the main components of the model, compare results of the 30 and 5 arcmin versions, and evaluate their model performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that model performance of the 5 arcmin version is notably better than that of the 30 arcmin version. Furthermore, we compare simulated time series of total water storage (TWS) of the 5 arcmin model with those observed with GRACE, showing similar negative trends in areas of prevalent groundwater depletion. Also, we find that simulated total water withdrawal matches reasonably well with reported water withdrawal from AQUASTAT, while water withdrawal by source and sector provide mixed results