Increments of Uncorrelated Time Series Can Be Predicted With a Universal 75% Probability of Success

We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this paradoxical result is explained in details. We also present some tests on synthetic, financial and global temperature time series.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Scaling with respect to disorder in time-to-failure

We revisit a simple dynamical model of rupture in random media with long-range elasticity to test whether rupture can be seen as a first-order or a critical transition. We find a clear scaling of the macroscopic modulus as a function of time-to-rupture and of the amplitude of the disorder, which allows us to collapse neatly the numerical simulations over more than five decades in time and more than one decade in disorder amplitude onto a single master curve. We thus conclude that, at least in this model, dynamical rupture in systems with long-range elasticity is a genuine critical phenomenon occurring as soon as the disorder is non-vanishing.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, submitted to J.Phys.I (France

The scheduling of sparse matrix-vector multiplication on a massively parallel dap computer

An efficient data structure is presented which supports general unstructured sparse matrix-vector multiplications on a Distributed Array of Processors (DAP). This approach seeks to reduce the inter-processor data movements and organises the operations in batches of massively parallel steps by a heuristic scheduling procedure performed on the host computer. The resulting data structure is of particular relevance to iterative schemes for solving linear systems. Performance results for matrices taken from well known Linear Programming (LP) test problems are presented and analysed

Fundamental Framework for Technical Analysis

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the deviation or defects from the random walk market state and its time-translational invariant properties. The classification relies on two dimensionless parameters, the Froude number characterizing the relative strength of the acceleration with respect to the velocity and the time horizon forecast dimensionalized to the training period. Trend-following and contrarian patterns are found to coexist and depend on the dimensionless time horizon. The classification is based on the symmetry requirements of invariance with respect to change of price units and of functional scale-invariance in the space of scenarii. This ``renormalized scenario'' approach is fundamentally probabilistic in nature and exemplifies the view that multiple competing scenarii have to be taken into account for the same past history. Empirical tests are performed on on about nine to thirty years of daily returns of twelve data sets comprising some major indices (Dow Jones, SP500, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei), some major bonds (JGB, TYX) and some major currencies against the US dollar (GBP, CHF, DEM, JPY). Our ``renormalized scenario'' exhibits statistically significant predictive power in essentially all market phases. In constrast, a trend following strategy and trend + acceleration following strategy perform well only on different and specific market phases. The value of the ``renormalized scenario'' approach lies in the fact that it always finds the best of the two, based on a calculation of the stability of their predicted market trajectories.Comment: Latex, 27 page

"Nonlinear" covariance matrix and portfolio theory for non-Gaussian multivariate distributions

This paper offers a precise analytical characterization of the distribution of returns for a portfolio constituted of assets whose returns are described by an arbitrary joint multivariate distribution. In this goal, we introduce a non-linear transformation that maps the returns onto gaussian variables whose covariance matrix provides a new measure of dependence between the non-normal returns, generalizing the covariance matrix into a non-linear fractional covariance matrix. This nonlinear covariance matrix is chiseled to the specific fat tail structure of the underlying marginal distributions, thus ensuring stability and good-conditionning. The portfolio distribution is obtained as the solution of a mapping to a so-called phi-q field theory in particle physics, of which we offer an extensive treatment using Feynman diagrammatic techniques and large deviation theory, that we illustrate in details for multivariate Weibull distributions. The main result of our theory is that minimizing the portfolio variance (i.e. the relatively ``small'' risks) may often increase the large risks, as measured by higher normalized cumulants. Extensive empirical tests are presented on the foreign exchange market that validate satisfactorily the theory. For ``fat tail'' distributions, we show that an adequete prediction of the risks of a portfolio relies much more on the correct description of the tail structure rather than on their correlations.Comment: Latex, 76 page

Pion and Kaon Condensation at Finite Temperature and Density

In this paper, we study O(2N)-symmetric $\phi^4$-theory at finite temperature and density using the 2PI-1/N expansion. As specific examples, we consider pion condensation at finite isospin chemical potential and kaon condensation at finite chemical potential for hyper charge and isospin charge. We calculate the phase diagrams and the quasiparticle masses for pions and kaons in the large-N limit. It is shown that the effective potential and the gap equation can be renormalized by using local counterterms for the coupling constant and mass parameter, which are independent of temperature and chemical potentials.Comment: 10 pages. 7 Figures. v2: Better plots and figs. Added significant number of refs v3: Accepted for publication in PRD. Added a figure and improved part on renormalization as well as presentatio

Exobiology on Mars

Descriptions of several instrument concepts that were generated during a workshop entitled, Exobiology Instrument Concepts for a Soviet Mars 94/94 Mission, held at NASA Ames Research Center in 1989 are presented. The objective was to define and describe instrument concepts for exobiology and related science that would be compatible with the mission types under discussion for the 1994 and 1996 Soviet Mars missions. Experiments that use existing technology were emphasized. The concepts discussed could also be used on U.S. missions that follow Mars Observer