Next challenges for adaptive learning systems

Learning from evolving streaming data has become a 'hot' research topic in the last decade and many adaptive learning algorithms have been developed. This research was stimulated by rapidly growing amounts of industrial, transactional, sensor and other business data that arrives in real time and needs to be mined in real time. Under such circumstances, constant manual adjustment of models is in-efficient and with increasing amounts of data is becoming infeasible. Nevertheless, adaptive learning models are still rarely employed in business applications in practice. In the light of rapidly growing structurally rich 'big data', new generation of parallel computing solutions and cloud computing services as well as recent advances in portable computing devices, this article aims to identify the current key research directions to be taken to bring the adaptive learning closer to application needs. We identify six forthcoming challenges in designing and building adaptive learning (pre-diction) systems: making adaptive systems scalable, dealing with realistic data, improving usability and trust, integrat-ing expert knowledge, taking into account various application needs, and moving from adaptive algorithms towards adaptive tools. Those challenges are critical for the evolving stream settings, as the process of model building needs to be fully automated and continuous.</jats:p

Unsupervised Ensembles Techniques for Visualization

In this paper we introduce two unsupervised techniques for visualization purposes based on the use of ensemble methods. The unsupervised techniques which are often quite sensitive to the presence of outliers are combined with the ensemble approaches in order to overcome the influence of outliers. The first technique is based on the use of Principal Component Analysis and the second one is known for its topology preserving characteristics and is based on the combination of the Scale Invariant Map and Maximum Likelihood Hebbian learning. In order to show the advantage of these novel ensemble-based techniques the results of some experiments carried out on artificial and real data sets are included

Toward Digital Twin Oriented Modeling of Complex Networked Systems and Their Dynamics: A Comprehensive Survey

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive critical overview on how entities and their interactions in Complex Networked Systems (CNS) are modelled across disciplines as they approach their ultimate goal of creating a Digital Twin (DT) that perfectly matches the reality. We propose four complexity dimensions for the network representation and five generations of models for the dynamics modelling to describe the increasing complexity level of the CNS that will be developed towards achieving DT (e.g. CNS dynamics modelled offline in the 1st generation v.s. CNS dynamics modelled simultaneously with a two-way real time feedback between reality and the CNS in the 5th generation). Based on that, we propose a new framework to conceptually compare diverse existing modelling paradigms from different perspectives and create unified assessment criteria to evaluate their respective capabilities of reaching such an ultimate goal. Using the proposed criteria, we also appraise how far the reviewed current state-of-the-art approaches are from the idealised DTs. Finally, we identify and propose potential directions and ways of building a DT-orientated CNS based on the convergence and integration of CNS and DT utilising a variety of cross-disciplinary techniques

A Robust Comparative Analysis of Graph Neural Networks on Dynamic Link Prediction

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are rapidly becoming the dominant way to learn on graph-structured data. Link prediction is a near-universal benchmark for new GNN models. Many advanced models such as Dynamic graph neural networks (DGNNs) specifically target dynamic graphs. However, these models, particularly DGNNs, are rarely compared to each other or existing heuristics. Different works evaluate their models in different ways, thus one cannot compare evaluation metrics and their results directly. Motivated by this, we perform a comprehensive comparison study. We compare link prediction heuristics, GNNs, discrete DGNNs, and continuous DGNNs on the dynamic link prediction task. In total we summarize the results of over 3200 experimental runs (≈ 1.5 years of computation time). We find that simple link prediction heuristics perform better than GNNs and DGNNs, different sliding window sizes greatly affect performance, and of all examined graph neural networks, that DGNNs consistently outperform static GNNs. This work is a continuation of our previous work, a foundation of dynamic networks and theoretical review of DGNNs. In combination with our survey, we provide both a theoretical and empirical comparison of DGNNs

Political airs : from monitoring to attuned sensing air pollution

In Madrid, as in many European cities, air pollution is known about and made accountable through techno-scientific monitoring processes based on data, and the toxicity of the air is defined through epidemiological studies and made political through policy. In 2009, Madrid’s City Council changed the location of its air quality monitoring stations without notice, reducing the average pollution of the city and therefore provoking a public scandal. This scandal challenged the monitoring process, as the data that used to be the evidence of pollution could not be relied on anymore. To identify the characteristics of some of the diverse forms of public’s participation that emerged, I route theories of environmental sensing from STS and feminist theory through the notion of attuned sensing. Reading environmental sensing through the processual and orientational processes of attunement expands the ways in which toxicity can be sensed outside of quantitative data. This mode of sensing recognizes how the different spontaneous attunements to and with air pollution and the scandal acknowledged Madrid’s chemical infrastructure, rendering visible qualitative conditions of toxicity. This mode of sensing politicized the toxicity of the air not through management or policy making, nor only through established forms environmental activism, but through contagion and accumulation of the different forms of public participation. All together, they made air pollution a matter of public concern. They also redistributed the actors, practices and objects that make the toxicity not only knowable, but also accountable, and most importantly, they opened up spaces for citizen intervention

Area-level and individual correlates of active transportation among adults in Germany: A population-based multilevel study

This study aimed at estimating the prevalence in adults of complying with the aerobic physical activity (PA) recommendation through transportation-related walking and cycling. Furthermore, potential determinants of transportation-related PA recommendation compliance were investigated. 10,872 men and 13,144 women aged 18 years or older participated in the cross-sectional 'German Health Update 2014/15 - EHIS' in Germany. Transportation-related walking and cycling were assessed using the European Health Interview Survey-Physical Activity Questionnaire. Three outcome indicators were constructed: walking, cycling, and total active transportation (>= 600 metabolic equivalent, MET-min/week). Associations were analyzed using multilevel regression analysis. Forty-two percent of men and 39% of women achieved >= 600 MET-min/week with total active transportation. The corresponding percentages for walking were 27% and 28% and for cycling 17% and 13%, respectively. Higher population density, older age, lower income, higher work-related and leisure-time PA, not being obese, and better self-perceived health were positively associated with transportation-related walking and cycling and total active transportation among both men and women. The promotion of walking and cycling among inactive people has great potential to increase PA in the general adult population and to comply with PA recommendations. Several correlates of active transportation were identified which should be considered when planning public health policies and interventions

Prospective Identification of Acute Myeloid Leukemia Patients Who Benefit from Gene-Expression Based Risk Stratification

Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a highly heterogeneous malignancy and risk stratification based on genetic and clinical variables is standard practice. However, current models incorporating these factors accurately predict clinical outcomes for only 64-80% of patients and fail to provide clear treatment guidelines for patients with intermediate genetic risk. A plethora of prognostic gene expression signatures (PGES) have been proposed to improve outcome predictions but none of these have entered routine clinical practice and their role remains uncertain. Methods: To clarify clinical utility, we performed a systematic evaluation of eight highly-cited PGES i.e. Marcucci-7, Ng-17, Li-24, Herold-29, Eppert-LSCR-48, Metzeler-86, Eppert-HSCR-105, and Bullinger-133. We investigated their constituent genes, methodological frameworks and prognostic performance in four cohorts of non-FAB M3 AML patients (n= 1175). All patients received intensive anthracycline and cytarabine based chemotherapy and were part of studies conducted in the United States of America (TCGA), the Netherlands (HOVON) and Germany (AMLCG). Results: There was a minimal overlap of individual genes and component pathways between different PGES and their performance was inconsistent when applied across different patient cohorts. Concerningly, different PGES often assigned the same patient into opposing adverse- or favorable- risk groups (Figure 1A: Rand index analysis; RI=1 if all patients were assigned to equal risk groups and RI =0 if all patients were assigned to different risk groups). Differences in the underlying methodological framework of different PGES and the molecular heterogeneity between AMLs contributed to these low-fidelity risk assignments. However, all PGES consistently assigned a significant subset of patients into the same adverse- or favorable-risk groups (40%-70%; Figure 1B: Principal component analysis of the gene components from the eight tested PGES). These patients shared intrinsic and measurable transcriptome characteristics (Figure 1C: Hierarchical cluster analysis of the differentially expressed genes) and could be prospectively identified using a high-fidelity prediction algorithm (FPA). In the training set (i.e. from the HOVON), the FPA achieved an accuracy of ~80% (10-fold cross-validation) and an AUC of 0.79 (receiver-operating characteristics). High-fidelity patients were dichotomized into adverse- or favorable- risk groups with significant differences in overall survival (OS) by all eight PGES (Figure 1D) and low-fidelity patients by two of the eight PGES (Figure 1E). In the three independent test sets (i.e. form the TCGA and AMLCG), patients with predicted high-fidelity were consistently dichotomized into the same adverse- or favorable- risk groups with significant differences in OS by all eight PGES. However, in-line with our previous analysis, patients with predicted low-fidelity were dichotomized into opposing adverse- or favorable- risk groups by the eight tested PGES. Conclusion: With appropriate patient selection, existing PGES improve outcome predictions and could guide treatment recommendations for patients without accurate genetic risk predictions (~18-25%) and for those with intermediate genetic risk (~32-35%). Figure 1 Disclosures Hiddemann: Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Bayer: Research Funding; Vector Therapeutics: Consultancy, Honoraria; Gilead: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Metzeler:Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Otsuka: Honoraria; Daiichi Sankyo: Honoraria. Pimanda:Celgene: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Beck:Gilead: Research Funding. </jats:sec

Automated Adaptation Strategies for Stream Learning

Automation of machine learning model development is increasingly becoming an established research area. While automated model selection and automated data pre-processing have been studied in depth, there is, however, a gap concerning automated model adaptation strategies when multiple strategies are available. Manually developing an adaptation strategy can be time consuming and costly. In this paper we address this issue by proposing the use of flexible adaptive mechanism deployment for automated development of adaptation strategies. Experimental results after using the proposed strategies with five adaptive algorithms on 36 datasets confirm their viability. These strategies achieve better or comparable performance to the custom adaptation strategies and the repeated deployment of any single adaptive mechanism