Neural-Based Ensembles and Unorganized Machines to Predict Streamflow Series from Hydroelectric Plants

Estimating future streamflows is a key step in producing electricity for countries with hydroelectric plants. Accurate predictions are particularly important due to environmental and economic impact they lead. In order to analyze the forecasting capability of models regarding monthly seasonal streamflow series, we realized an extensive investigation considering: six versions of unorganized machines—extreme learning machines (ELM) with and without regularization coefficient (RC), and echo state network (ESN) using the reservoirs from Jaeger’s and Ozturk et al., with and without RC. Additionally, we addressed the ELM as the combiner of a neural-based ensemble, an investigation not yet accomplished in such context. A comparative analysis was performed utilizing two linear approaches (autoregressive model (AR) and autoregressive and moving average model (ARMA)), four artificial neural networks (multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, Elman network, and Jordan network), and four ensembles. The tests were conducted at five hydroelectric plants, using horizons of 1, 3, 6, and 12 steps ahead. The results indicated that the unorganized machines and the ELM ensembles performed better than the linear models in all simulations. Moreover, the errors showed that the unorganized machines and the ELM-based ensembles reached the best general performances

Vitamin C and infectious diseases

Non peer reviewe

Vitamin C and the common cold: a retrospective analysis of Chalmers’ review.

In 1975 Thomas Chalmers analyzed the possible effect of vitamin C on the common cold by calculating the average difference in the duration of cold episodes in vitamin C and control groups in seven placebo-controlled studies. He found that episodes were 0.11 +/- 0.24 (SE) days shorter in the vitamin C groups and concluded that there was no valid evidence to indicate that vitamin C is beneficial in the treatment of the common cold. Chalmers' review has been extensively cited in scientific articles and monographs. However, other reviewers have concluded that vitamin C significantly alleviates the symptoms of the common cold. A careful analysis of Chalmers' review reveals serious shortcomings. For example, Chalmers did not consider the amount of vitamin C used in the studies and included in his meta-analysis was a study in which only 0.025-0.05 g/day of vitamin C was administered to the test subjects. For some studies Chalmers used values that are inconsistent with the original published results. Using data from the same studies, we calculated that vitamin C (1-6 g/day) decreased the duration of the cold episodes by 0.93 +/- 0.22 (SE) days; the relative decrease in the episode duration was 21%. The current notion that vitamin C has no effect on the common cold seems to be based in large part on a faulty review written two decades ago

Infrared optically stimulated luminescence of rare earth doped CaF2 and co-doped with Al or Li produced by combustion synthesis

The aim of this paper is to characterize the IRSL response of rare earth doped CaF2 and co-doped with Al or Li, produced by the solution combustion synthesis (SCS). The results showed a high intensity of the infrared optically stimulated luminescence (IRSL) response for the samples of CaF2 doped with Tb and co-doped with Li. For the samples of CaF2 doped with Ce and co-doped with Li present better IRSL response than the samples co-doped with Al. It was also observed that the samples of CaF2:Ce,Li present a high fading with 50% reduction of the IRSL signal in a period of 60 min. In case of the CaF2:Tb,Li there is no significant fading during this period. For clinical dosimetry the fast fading of the dosimeter is not adequate. However, this feature can be exploited for other applications such as tamper-proof passive systems that detect and timestamp the movement of undeclared nuclear materials, by the estimation of the OSL response of materials with different fading rates

Multivariate treatment of LIBS data of prehistoric paintings

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was employed in the study of two fragments of prehistoric rock wall paintings found at two Brazilian sites: in Piauí State (Toca Extrema II) and in Rio Grande do Norte State (Xique-Xique). A time-resolved echellebased LIBS system assembled in the laboratory (laser Nd:YAG, 1064 nm, 5.2 ns) was employed for spectral acquisition. Preliminary depth profile studies were carried out in surrogate samples of a multilayer painting on wood to determine the best energy for the laser pulse. For each fragment of wall painting, the depth profile composition was investigated by firing 8 successive laser shots at each of 16 locations (8 in the area of pigment and 8 in the area of substrate). It is demonstrated in this work that the use of multivariate techniques is compulsory due to the high complexity of the spectral data obtained from depth profile studies of the archaeological samples.Dois fragmentos de pinturas rupestres pertencentes a dois sítios arqueológicos brasileiros, sendo um no estado do Piauí (Sítio Toca da Extrema II) e outro no estado do Rio Grande do Norte (Sítio arqueológico Xique-Xique), foram analisados por LIBS (espectroscopia de emissão em plasma induzido por laser). Um instrumento construído no laboratório (laser Nd:YAG, 1064 nm, 5,2 ns), contendo um policromador echelle, foi empregado para a aquisição dos espectros. Estudos preliminares envolvendo uma pintura realizada sobre uma tela de madeira contendo diferentes camadas de material foram realizados para determinar a melhor energia do pulso de laser. Para cada fragmento de pintura, foram realizados 8 pulsos sucessivos em 16 locações diferentes, sendo 8 locações sobre a pintura e 8 sobre o substrato. Neste trabalho, foi demonstrado que a utilização de técnicas multivariadas é indispensável devido à grande complexidade dos espectros obtidos durante estudo de profundidade de amostras arqueológicas.958965Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES

An Approach to Establishing Diagnostic Reference Levels in Interventional Pediatric Cardiology from Different Regions of Brazil

Diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) are a pivotal strategy to be implemented since pediatric interventional cardiology procedures are increasing. This work aimed to propose an initial set of Brazilian DRLs for pediatric interventional diagnostic and therapeutic (D&T) procedures. A retrospective study was carried out in four Brazilian states, distributed across the three regions of the country. Data were collected from pediatric patients undergoing cardiac interventional procedures (CIPs), including their age and anthropometric characteristics, and at least four parameters (number of images, exposure time, air kerma–area product—PKA, and cumulative air kerma). Data from 279 patients undergoing CIPs were gathered (147 diagnostic and 132 therapeutic procedures). There were no significant differences in exposure time and the number of images between the D&T procedures. A wide range of PKA was observed when the therapeutic procedures were compared to diagnostics for all age groups. There were significant differences between the D&T procedures, whether grouping data by patient weight or age. In terms of cumulative air kerma, it was noted that no value exceeded the level to trigger a monitoring process for patients. This study shows that it is possible to adopt them as the first proposal to establish national DRLs considering pediatric patient groups