Perceived Risk, Product Returns, and Optimal Resource Allocation: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Relatively few retailers include metrics such as product returns in their customer selection and optimal resource allocation algorithms when measuring and maximizing customer value. Even when they do include this metric, increases in product return behavior are usually considered merely an economic cost that must be managed by decreasing the marketing resource allocations toward the customers making the returns. However, recent research has suggested that satisfactory product return experiences can actually benefit firms by lowering the customer’s perceived risk of current and future purchases. To better understand the role of this perceived risk in the firm–customer exchange process, the authors conduct a large-scale customer selection and optimal resource allocation field experiment with 26,000 customers from an online retailer over six months. They find that the firm is able to increase both its short and long-term profits when accounting for the perceived risk related to product returns in addition to managing product return costs. Furthermore, the authors find that by including this risk, rather than simply implementing traditional customer lifetime value–based models generically, the firm can target more profitable customers

When Time is Sales: The Impact of Sales Manager Time Allocation Decisions on Sales Team Performance

Sales managers often take on the dual responsibilities of managing a sales team and selling to customers. This practice raises questions about how sales managers\u27 time allocation to managing and selling activities affects sales team performance. Building on qualitative findings, this research first highlights and categorizes activities that are regularly competing for the limited time resources of today\u27s sales managers. Our qualitative results reveal a prevalence of sales managers taking a hybrid approach to managing their sales teams by regularly allocating time toward both managing and selling activities. Through a resource allocation lens, we investigate how the time allocation decisions of these hybrid sales managers influence sales team performance. Our findings underscore the importance of effective time management for sales managers across a core set of leader behaviors, including managing people, managing information (planning and analysis), customer interaction, and administrative tasks. Ultimately, boundary conditions suggest counterintuitive implications of team experience on the value derived from various manager activities. Findings suggest that when managing more (less) experienced teams, managers should focus on spending more time on managing people (customer interaction)

Perspectives of wild medicine harvesters from Cape Town, South Africa

Cape Town is a fast-growing cityscape in the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa with 24 formally protected conservation areas including the World Heritage Table Mountain National Park. These sites have been protected and managed as critical sites for local biodiversity, representing potentially one-third of all Cape Floristic Region flora species and 18% of South Africa’s plant diversity. Cape Town is also inhabited by a rapidly growing culturally and economically diverse citizenry with distinct and potentially conflicting perspectives on access to, and management of, local natural resources. In a qualitative study of 58 locally resident traditional healers of distinct cultural groups, we examined motivations underlying the generally illicit activity of harvesting of wild resources from Cape Town protected areas. Resource harvester motivations primarily link to local economic survival, health care and cultural links to particular resources and practices, ‘access for all’ outlooks, and wholesale profit-seeking perspectives. We describe these motivations, contrast them with the current formal, legal and institutional perspectives for biodiversity protection in the city, and propose managerial interventions that may improve sustainability of ongoing harvest activities

Guillain-Barré Syndrome and Preceding Infection with Campylobacter, Influenza and Epstein-Barr Virus in the General Practice Research Database

BACKGROUND: A number of infectious agents have previously been suggested as risk factors for the development of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), but robust epidemiologic evidence for these associations is lacking. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database between 1991 and 2001. Controls were matched to cases on general practice clinic, sex, year of birth and date of outcome diagnosis in their matched case. We found positive associations between GBS and infection with Campylobacter, Epstein-Barr virus and influenza-like illness in the previous two months, as well as evidence of a protective effect of influenza vaccination. After correction for under-ascertainment of Campylobacter infection, the excess risk of GBS following Campylobacter enteritis was 60-fold and 20% of GBS cases were attributable to this pathogen. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a far greater excess risk of GBS among Campylobacter enteritis patients than previously reported by retrospective serological studies. In addition, they confirm previously suggested associations between infection due to Epstein-Barr virus infection and influenza-like illness and GBS. Finally, we report evidence of a protective effect of influenza vaccination on GBS risk, which may be mediated through protection against influenza disease, or result from a lower likelihood of vaccination among those with recent infection. Cohort studies of GBS incidence in this population would help to clarify the burden of GBS due to influenza, and any potential protective effect of influenza vaccination

GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks : A systematic and transparent approach to making well-informed healthcare choices. 1. Introduction

Funding: Work on this article has been partially funded by the European Commission FP7 Program (grant agreement 258583) as part of the DECIDE project. Sole responsibility lies with the authors; the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Understanding pregnancy planning in a low-income country setting: validation of the London measure of unplanned pregnancy in Malawi

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: The London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy (LMUP) is a new and psychometrically valid measure of pregnancy intention that was developed in the United Kingdom. An improved understanding of pregnancy intention in low-income countries, where unintended pregnancies are common and maternal and neonatal deaths are high, is necessary to inform policies to address the unmet need for family planning. To this end this research aimed to validate the LMUP for use in the Chichewa language in Malawi.Methods: Three Chichewa speakers translated the LMUP and one translation was agreed which was back-translated and pre-tested on five pregnant women using cognitive interviews. The measure was field tested with pregnant women who were recruited at antenatal clinics and data were analysed using classical test theory and hypothesis testing.Results: 125 women aged 15-43 (median 23), with parities of 1-8 (median 2) completed the Chichewa LMUP. There were no missing data. The full range of LMUP scores was captured. In terms of reliability, the scale was internally consistent (Cronbach's alpha = 0.78) and test-retest data from 70 women showed good stability (weighted Kappa 0.80). In terms of validity, hypothesis testing confirmed that unmarried women (p = 0.003), women who had four or more children alive (p = 0.0051) and women who were below 20 or over 29 (p = 0.0115) were all more likely to have unintended pregnancies. Principal component analysis showed that five of the six items loaded onto one factor, with a further item borderline. A sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of the removal of the weakest item of the scale showed slightly improved performance but as the LMUP was not significantly adversely affected by its inclusion we recommend retaining the six-item score.Conclusion: The Chichewa LMUP is a valid and reliable measure of pregnancy intention in Malawi and can now be used in research and/or surveillance. This is the first validation of this tool in a low-income country, helping to demonstrate that the concept of pregnancy planning is applicable in such a setting. Use of the Chichewa LMUP can enhance our understanding of pregnancy intention in Malawi, giving insight into the family planning services that are required to better meet women's needs and save lives. © 2013 Hall et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Dr Hall’s Wellcome Trust Research Training Fellowship, grant number 097268/Z/11/Z

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores "The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures in an operational setting.