Hierarchical elimination-by-aspects and nested logit models of stated preferences for alternative fuel vehicles

1. INTRODUCTION Since the late 1960s, transport demand analysis has been the context for significant developments in model forms for the representation of discrete choice behaviour. Such developments have adhered almost exclusively to the behavioural paradigm of Random Utility Maximisation (RUM), first proposed by Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960). A common argument for the allegiance to RUM is that it ensures consistency with the fundamental axioms of microeconomic consumer theory and, it follows, permits interface between the demand model and the concepts of welfare economics (e.g. Koppelman and Wen, 2001). The desire to better represent observed choice, which has driven developments in RUM models, has been somewhat at odds, however, with the frequent assault on the utility maximisation paradigm, and by implication RUM, from a range of literatures. This critique has challenged the empirical validity of the fundamental axioms (e.g. Kahneman and Tversky, 2000; Mclntosh and Ryan, 2002; Saelensmide, 1999) and, more generally, the realism of the notion of instrumental rationality inherent in utility maximisation (e.g. Hargreaves-Heap, 1992; McFadden, 1999; Camerer, 1998). Emanating from these literatures has been an alternative family of so-called non-RUM models, which seek to offer greater realism in the representation of how individuals actually process choice tasks. The workshop on Methodological Developments at the 2000 Conference of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research concluded: 'Non-RUM models deserve to be evaluated side-by-side with RUM models to determine their practicality, ability to describe behaviour, and usefulness for transportation policy. The research agenda should include tests of these models' (Bolduc and McFadden, 2001 p326). The present paper, together with a companion paper, Batley and Daly (2003), offer a timely contribution to this research priority. Batley and Daly (2003) present a detailed account of the theoretical derivation of RUM, and consider the relationships of two specific RUM forms; nested logit [NL] (Ben-Akiva, 1974; Williams, 1977; Daly and Zachary, 1976; McFadden, 1978) and recursive nested extreme value [RNEV] (Daly, 2001 ; Bierlaire, 2002; Daly and Bierlaire, 2003); to two specific non-RUM forms; elimination-by-aspects [EBA] (Tversky, 1972a, 1972b) and hierarchical EBA [HEBA] (Tversky and Sattath, 1979). In particular, Batley and Daly (2003) establish conditions under which NL and RNEV derive equivalent choice probabilities to HEBA and EBA, respectively. These findings would seem to ameliorate the concern that the application of RUM models to data generated by non-RUM choice processes could introduce significant biases. That aside, substantive issues remain as to how non-RUM models can best be specified so as to yield useful and robust information in both estimation and forecasting contexts, and how their empirical performance compares with RUM models. Such issues are the focus of the present paper, which applies non-RUM models to a real empirical context

Recent results from the NA48 experiment at CERN: CP violation and CKM parameter Vus

Several recent results from the NA48 experiment are presented: a measurement $|\eta_{+-}|$, search for CP violating phenomena in $K^\pm\to3\pi$ decays, and a measurement of $|V_{us}|$.Comment: A talk given at the 2007 Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics. 3 page

The Politics of Service Delivery Reform

This article identifies the leaders, the supporters and the resisters of public service reform. It adopts a principal–agent framework, comparing reality with an ‘ideal’ situation in which citizens are the principals over political policy-makers as their agents, and policy-makers are the principals over public service officials as their agents. Reform in most developing countries is complicated by an additional set of external actors — international financial institutions and donors. In practice, international agencies and core government officials usually act as the ‘principals’ in the determination of reforms. The analysis identifies the interests involved in reform, indicating how the balance between them is affected by institutional and sectoral factors. Organizational reforms, particularly in the social sectors, present greater difficulties than first generation economic policy reforms

Direct CP violation in neutral kaon decays

The final result is presented of the NA48 Experiment performed at CERN SPS neutral kaon beams on the direct CP violation parameter Re(epsilon'/epsilon), as maesured from the decay rates of neutral kaons into two pions. The data collected in years 1997-2001 yield the evidence for direct CP violation with Re(epsilon'/epsilon)=(14.7+-2.2)10^-4. Description of expermental method and systematics, comparison with world data and some discussion of implications for theory are given.Comment: 5 pp., 3 figs, presented on behalf of NA48 Collaboration at PASCOS 2003 Conference, Mumbai, India, 2-8 Jan 2003, to appear in Praman

The isospin symmetry breaking effects in Ke4K_{e4} decays

The Fermi-Watson theorem is generalized to the case of two coupled channels with different masses and applied to final state interaction in $K_{e4}$ decays. The impact of considered effect on the phase of the $\pi\pi$ scattering is estimated and shown that it can be crucial for scattering lengths extraction from experimental data on $K_{e4}$ decays

Participation in online activities while travelling: an application of the MDCEV model in the context of rail travel

Travel-based multitasking, i.e. using travel time to conduct enjoyable and/or productive activities, is the subject of an increasing number of theoretical and empirical studies. Most existing studies focus on modelling the choice of which activities people conduct while travelling, and a limited number of papers also focuses on their duration. The novelty of this study with respect to this literature is two-fold. Firstly, we specifically study the engagement in different online activities while travelling, and apply the state-of-the-art Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model to jointly model the choice and duration of multiple activities. We apply this model to data collected face-to-face from train passengers in the UK. We find that activity choice and duration is explained by both passenger and trip characteristics, especially trip purpose, ticket type and day/time of the trip. Secondly, we show how such modelling can assist in investment appraisal, in particular by providing insights into lower- and upper- bound estimates of the proportion of the entire travel time spent working, itself of importance in, for example, valuation of business travel time using the so-called Hensher Equation. We present a detailed discussion of how the findings from our work contribute to the broader discourse around the nature of travel time and its valuation

Two-loop representations of low-energy pion form factors and pi-pi scattering phases in the presence of isospin breaking

Dispersive representations of the pi-pi scattering amplitudes and pion form factors, valid at two-loop accuracy in the low-energy expansion, are constructed in the presence of isospin-breaking effects induced by the difference between the charged and neutral pion masses. Analytical expressions for the corresponding phases of the scalar and vector pion form factors are computed. It is shown that each of these phases consists of the sum of a "universal" part and a form-factor dependent contribution. The first one is entirely determined in terms of the pi-pi scattering amplitudes alone, and reduces to the phase satisfying Watson's theorem in the isospin limit. The second one can be sizeable, although it vanishes in the same limit. The dependence of these isospin corrections with respect to the parameters of the subthreshold expansion of the pi-pi amplitude is studied, and an equivalent representation in terms of the S-wave scattering lengths is also briefly presented and discussed. In addition, partially analytical expressions for the two-loop form factors and pi-pi scattering amplitudes in the presence of isospin breaking are provided.Comment: 57 pages, 12 figure

The electromagnetic effects in Ke4K_{e4} decay

The final state interaction of pions in $K_{e4}$ decay allows one to obtain the value of the isospin and angular momentum zero $\pi\pi$ scattering length $a_0^0$.We take into account the electromagnetic interaction of pions and isospin symmetry breaking effects caused by different masses of neutral and charged pions and estimate the impact of these effects on the procedure of scattering length extraction from $K_{e4}$ decay.Comment: 8 pages,1 figur

K -> 3 pi Final State Interactions at NLO in CHPT and Cabibbo's Proposal to Measure a_0-a_2

We present the analytical results for the K -> 3 pi final state interactions at next-to-leading order (NLO) in CHPT. We also study the recent Cabibbo's proposal to measure the pi-pi scattering lenghts combination a_0-a_2 from the cusp effect in the pi^0-pi^0 energy spectrum at threshold for K^+ -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^+ and K_L -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0$, and give the relevant formulas to describe it at NLO. For that, we use the NLO CHPT expression to fit the real part of K -> 3 pi to data while the pi-pi scattering lenghts are treated non-perturbatively. Using them, we make a quantitative estimate of the theoretical uncertaintity of the a_0-a_2 determination at NLO in our approach and obtain that it is not smaller than 5 % if added quadratically and 7 % if linearly for K^+ -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^+. One gets similar theoretical uncertainties if the neutral K_L -> pi^0 pi^0 pi^0 decay data below threshold are used instead. For this decay, there are very large theoretical uncertainties above threshold due to cancellations and data above threshold cannot be used to get the scattering lenghts. All the numbers we present are in the isospin limit apart of two-pion phase space factors which are physical. We compare our results for the cusp effect with Cabibbo and Isidori's results and discuss the differences and agreements. We also comment on the apperance of the singularity at the K -> 3 pi pseudo-threshold s=(m_K-m_pi)^2 in the discontinuity that defines the cusp.Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures. v2=v3 Added the full contributions to the cusp from the real part of the discontinuity. v4 Improved text. Matches published versio