Sets of Priors Reflecting Prior-Data Conflict and Agreement

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge. This has the advantage that prior-data conflict sensitivity can be modelled: Ranges of posterior inferences should be larger when prior and data are in conflict. We propose a new method for generating prior sets which, in addition to prior-data conflict sensitivity, allows to reflect strong prior-data agreement by decreased posterior imprecision.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, In: Paulo Joao Carvalho et al. (eds.), IPMU 2016: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, Eindhoven, The Netherland

Arctic soil CO₂ release during freeze-thaw cycles modulated by silicon and calcium

Arctic soils are the largest pool of soil organic carbon worldwide. Temperatures in the Arctic have risen faster than the global average during the last decades, decreasing annual freezing days and increasing the number of freeze-thaw cycles (temperature oscillations passing through zero degrees) per year as the temperature is expected to fluctuate more around 0 °C. At the same time, proceeding deepening of seasonal thaw may increase silicon (Si) and calcium (Ca) concentrations in the active layer of Arctic soils as the concentrations in the thawing permafrost layer might be higher depending on location. We analyzed the importance of freeze-thaw cycles for Arctic soil CO2 fluxes. Furthermore, we tested how Si (mobilizing organic C) and Ca (immobilizing organic C) interfere with the soil CO2 fluxes in the context of freeze-thaw cycles. Our results show that with each freeze-thaw cycle the CO2 fluxes from the Arctic soils decreased. Our data revealed a considerable CO2 emission below 0 °C. We also show that pronounced differences emerge in Arctic soil CO2 fluxes with Si increasing and Ca decreasing CO2 fluxes. Furthermore, we show that both Si and Ca concentrations in Arctic soils are central controls on Arctic soil CO2 release, with Si increasing Arctic soil CO2 release especially when temperatures are just below 0 °C. Our findings could provide an important constraint on soil CO2 emissions upon soil thaw, as well as on the greenhouse gas budget of high latitudes. Thus we call for work improving understanding of freeze-thaw cycles as well as the effect of Ca and Si on carbon fluxes, as well as for increased consideration of those factors in wide-scale assessments of carbon fluxes in the high latitudes

Open-domain topic identification of out-of-domain utterances using Wikipedia

Users of spoken dialogue systems (SDS) expect high quality interactions across a wide range of diverse topics. However, the implementation of SDS capable of responding to every conceivable user utterance in an informative way is a challenging problem. Multi-domain SDS must necessarily identify and deal with out-of-domain (OOD) utterances to generate appropriate responses as users do not always know in advance what domains the SDS can handle. To address this problem, we extend the current state-of-the-art in multi-domain SDS by estimating the topic of OOD utterances using external knowledge representation from Wikipedia. Experimental results on real human-to-human dialogues showed that our approach does not degrade domain prediction performance when compared to the base model. But more significantly, our joint training achieves more accurate predictions of the nearest Wikipedia article by up to about 30% when compared to the benchmarks

Changes in the tear proteins of diabetic patients

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown a significant increase in tear protein peaks in the tears of diabetic patients suffering from dry eye. The aim of this study was to analyze the tear protein patterns from patients with diabetes mellitus who do not suffer from ocular surface diseases (DIA). METHODS: A total of 515 patients were examined in this study (255 healthy subjects (controls) and 260 patients suffering from diabetes mellitus). Tear proteins were separated by sodium-dodecyl-sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. After digital image analysis densitometric data files were created and subsequently used for multivariate statistical procedures. RESULTS: A significant increase in the number of peaks was detected in diabetic patients compared to controls (P < 0.0003). The analysis of discriminance revealed a highly significant discrimination between diabetic patients and controls (Wilks lambda: 0.27; P < 0.000001). Furthermore, a significant difference in the protein pattern of diabetic patients could be detected between those suffering from dry eye or not (P < 0.002). The changes in protein patterns of diabetic patients increased with the duration of the diabetic disease. In diabetic patients with a disease duration longer than 10 years the changes were significantly more expressed than in patients with a shorter diabetic history (P < 0.003) and in healthy subjects (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The tear protein patterns of diabetic patients are very different in the number and intensity of spots from those of healthy subjects. Furthermore, it could be demonstrated that the differences found in the tear patterns of diabetic patients are not equal to those found in previous studies in patients suffering from dry-eye disease. The alterations in the diabetic tears were correlated with the duration of the diabetic disease. With longer disease, history changes in the tear protein patterns increased. With the course of the disease some protein peaks appeared that are not present in healthy persons. Our study shows that the analysis of electrophoretic tear protein patterns is a new non-invasive approach in the early diagnosis and analysis of the pathogenesis of diabetes induced ocular surface disease

HEP Applications Evaluation of the EDG Testbed and Middleware

Workpackage 8 of the European Datagrid project was formed in January 2001 with representatives from the four LHC experiments, and with experiment independent people from five of the six main EDG partners. In September 2002 WP8 was strengthened by the addition of effort from BaBar and D0. The original mandate of WP8 was, following the definition of short- and long-term requirements, to port experiment software to the EDG middleware and testbed environment. A major additional activity has been testing the basic functionality and performance of this environment. This paper reviews experiences and evaluations in the areas of job submission, data management, mass storage handling, information systems and monitoring. It also comments on the problems of remote debugging, the portability of code, and scaling problems with increasing numbers of jobs, sites and nodes. Reference is made to the pioneeering work of Atlas and CMS in integrating the use of the EDG Testbed into their data challenges. A forward look is made to essential software developments within EDG and to the necessary cooperation between EDG and LCG for the LCG prototype due in mid 2003.Comment: Talk from the 2003 Computing in High Energy and Nuclear Physics Conference (CHEP03), La Jolla, CA, USA, March 2003, 7 pages. PSN THCT00

A new interpolation method to measure delta evolution and sediment flux: Application to the late Holocene coastal plain of the Argens River in the western Mediterranean

Rapid environmental changes along the Mediterranean coasts influenced the sedimentary dynamics, shoreline position and human settlements in deltaic areas over the last millennia. An innovative and multiproxy approach using geostatistical modelling was developed to estimate geomorphic evolution and sediment fluxes in deltaic areas, while palaeoecological conditions and environmental changes were assessed from geochemistry and cluster analyses of molluscan fauna. This method was applied to the coastal plain of the Argens River in southern France. Depositional environments of prodelta, delta front, river channel, floodplain, marsh and abandoned channel were identified from the study of facies associations. The late Holocene sediment flux in the Argens River bayhead delta ranged from 15,800 ± 2300 to 52,000 ± 8500 m3·yr−1. The highest rate of sediment deposition between 2500 and 2000 cal yr BP was associated with increased river flooding in southeastern France. A general decrease in subaqueous sediment flux over the past 2500 years was primarily controlled by a decrease in accommodation space and delta slope. From 500 to 0 cal yr BP, a sharp increase in subaerial sediment flux probably due to hydroclimatic change was contemporaneous with a period of high flood frequency during the Little Ice Age. A southward shift of the North Atlantic westerlies combined with either a negative phase of the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern or a negative phase of the East Atlantic pattern coupled to a northward migration of the intertropical convergence zone could have led to increased fluvial activity in the lower Argens valley during the late Holocene

A comparison of local phosphorescence detection and fluid dynamic gauging methods for studying the removal of cohesive fouling layers: Effect of layer roughness

The performance of industrial cleaning in place (CIP) procedures is critically important for food manufacture. CIP has yet to be optimised for many processes, in part since the mechanisms involved in cleaning are not fully understood. Laboratory tests have an important role in guiding industrial trials, and this paper introduces and compares two experimental techniques developed for studying CIP mechanisms: local phosphorescence detection (LPD), and scanning fluid dynamic gauging (sFDG). To illustrate the comparison, each technique is used to investigate the influence of soil topology on the cleaning of pre-gelatinised starch-based layers from 316 stainless steel substrates by aqueous NaOH solutions at ambient temperature. The roughness of the soil surface is varied by incorporating zinc sulphide particles with different particle size distributions (range 1 - 80 μm) into the starch suspensions. The soil roughness increased with the use of larger particles, increasing the 3D arithmetic mean roughness (Sa) of the dry layers (range 0.37 - 3.33 μm). Rough layers were cleaned more readily than those containing small inclusions, with a good correlation between the cleaning rates observed during LPD and FDG measurements. The LPD technique, which is an instrumented CIP test, gives a better indication of the cleaning time, while sFDG measurements provide further insight into the removal mechanisms.NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Food Bioproducts Processing. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Food Bioproducts Proc., 92, 46-53 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fbp.2013.07.01

Negotiations of minority ethnic rugby league players in the Cathar country of France

This article is based on new empirical, qualitative research with minority ethnic rugby league players in the southwest of France. Drawing on similar research on rugby league in the north and the south of England, the article examines how rugby league, traditionally viewed as a white, working-class male game (Collins, 2006; Denham, 2004; Spracklen, 1995, 2001) has had to re-imagine its symbolic boundaries as they are constituted globally and locally to accommodate the needs of players from minority ethnic backgrounds. In particular, the article examines the sense in which experiences of minority ethnic rugby league players in France compare with those of their counterparts in England (Spracklen, 2001, 2007), how rugby league is used in France to construct identity, and in what sense the norms associated with the imaginary community of rugby league are replicated or challenged by the involvement of minority ethnic rugby league players in France. Questions about what it means to be (provincial, national) French (Kumar, 2006) are posed, questions that relate to the role of sport in the construction of Frenchness, and in particular the role of rugby league (and union). © Copyright ISSA and SAGE Publications