Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: Summary data that support the findings of this study are available within the paper and its Supplementary Information file. Raw ecological network data have been deposited in the Tropical Data Hub and can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.25903/5ecf39990a0bb. Raw social and social network data are available on request from the corresponding author with reasonable restrictions, as these data contain information that could compromise research participant privacy and consent.To cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, people will need to change existing practices or behaviours within existing social–ecological systems (adaptation) or enact more fundamental changes that can alter dominant social–ecological relationships and create new systems or futures (transformation). Here we use multilevel network modelling to examine how different domains of adaptive capacity—assets, flexibility, organization, learning, socio-cognitive constructs and agency—are related to adaptive and transformative actions. We find evidence consistent with an influence process in which aspects of social organization (exposure to others in social networks) encourage both adaptive and transformative actions among Papua New Guinean islanders experiencing climate change impacts. Adaptive and transformative actions are also related to social–ecological network structures between people and ecological resources that enable learning and the internalization of ecological feedbacks. Agency is also key, yet we show that while perceived power may encourage adaptations, it may discourage more transformative actions.Australian Research Council (ARC)U.S. National Science FoundationCGIA

Closing the compliance gap in marine protected areas with human behavioural sciences

Advocates, practitioners and policy-makers continue to use and advocate for marine protected areas (MPAs) to meet global ocean protection targets. Yet many of the worlds MPAs, and especially no-take MPAs, are plagued by poaching and ineffective governance. Using a global dataset on coral reefs as an example, we quantify the potential ecological gains of governing MPAs to increase compliance, which we call the ‘compliance gap’. Using ecological simulations based on model posteriors of joint Bayesian hierarchical models, we demonstrate how increased compliance in no-take MPAs could nearly double target fish biomass (91% increases in median fish biomass), and result in a 292% higher likelihood of encountering top predators. Achieving these gains and closing the compliance gap necessitates a substantial shift in approach and practice to go beyond optimizing enforcement, and towards governing for compliance. This will require engaging and integrating a broad suite of actors, principles, and practices across three key domains: (i)) harnessing social influence, (ii) integrating equity principles, and (iii) aligning incentives through market-based instruments. Empowering and shaping communication between actor groups (e.g., between fishers, practitioners, and policy-makers) using theoretically underpinned approaches from the behavioural sciences is one of the most essential, but often underserved aspects of governing MPAs. We therefore close by highlighting how this cross-cutting tool could be further integrated in governance to bolster high levels of compliance in MPAs

Meeting fisheries, ecosystem function, and biodiversity goals in a human-dominated world

The worldwide decline of coral reefs necessitates targeting management solutions that can sustain reefs and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. However, little is known about the context in which different reef management tools can help to achieve multiple social and ecological goals. Because of nonlinearities in the likelihood of achieving combined fisheries, ecological function, and biodiversity goals along a gradient of human pressure, relatively small changes in the context in which management is implemented could have substantial impacts on whether these goals are likely to be met. Critically, management can provide substantial conservation benefits to most reefs for fisheries and ecological function, but not biodiversity goals, given their degraded state and the levels of human pressure they face

Anthropogenic impact on Zostera noltei seagrass meadows (NW Iberian Peninsula) assessed by carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic signatures

Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services for human well-being. They are threatened by increasing human development on coastal areas, which results in eutrophication and ecosystem degradation. The negative effects of anthropogenic pressures on Zostera noltei meadows in NW Spain are unknown. This study aims to explore the relationship between watershed human development (i.e., the demographic temporal evolution and land cover indicators of human pressure) and the C and N isotopic signatures determined in Z. noltei seagrass meadows located in the related estuarine areas. We measured δ¹⁵N, δ³C, and the C:N content of sediment cores, Z. noltei leaves, and epiphytes collected from three seagrass meadows located at NW Iberian Peninsula characterized by well-differentiated watersheds in terms of the intensity of the anthropogenic pressures (Caldebarcos, Lourizán, and A Ramallosa). Ages and sedimentation rates were estimated by ²¹⁰Pb/¹³⁷Cs dating of one sediment core from the A Ramallosa seagrass meadow, corresponding to the most populated and urbanized watershed. Magnitudes of anthropogenic pressure on the watersheds were determined by the analysis of historic demographic data and the quantification of land cover changes obtained from CORINE Land Cover database. The intense anthropogenic transformation observed in the A Ramallosa watershed resulted in increases of sedimentation rates in the Z. noltei meadow. δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C signatures revealed the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Sediment δ¹⁵N was the variable that best performed as an early warning eutrophication indicator, whereas δ¹⁵N in Z. noltei and epiphytic material were less coupled to the magnitudes of artificial land and population density on watersheds

Decadal changes in the spatial coverage of Zostera noltei in two seagrass meadows (Ría de Vigo; NW Spain)

Seagrass meadows are influenced by anthropogenic activities occurring in the littoral, generally resulting in an intense regression in the last decades. This study examines the evolution of the Z. noltei coverage from 1989 to 2014 in two seagrass meadows located in the Ría de Vigo (Arcade and A Ramallosa), subjected to different degrees of coastline alteration, anthropogenic land cover, population growth and shellfishing activity. A spatial analysis of the distribution of Z. noltei was carried out using aerial photographs from 1989, 2004 and 2014 and field surveys. The results obtained showed that in Arcade, a meadow characterized by low watershed-scale anthropogenic pressure and absence of shellfishing on the seagrass, the Z. noltei coverage decreased by 48 % in the studied period. By contrast, in A Ramallosa, a meadow characterized by moderately watershed-scale anthropogenic pressure and presence of shellfishing on the seagrass, the Z. noltei coverage increased by 56%. The observed increase of Z. noltei coverage in A Ramallosa appears to be related to the combined effect of increase of finer sediment loads and a decrease of bivalve harvesting

Anthropogenic impact on Zostera noltei seagrass meadows (NW Iberian Peninsula) assessed by carbon and Nitrogen stable isotopic signatures

Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services for human well-being. They are threatened by increasing human development on coastal areas, which results in eutrophication and ecosystem degradation. The negative effects of anthropogenic pressures on Zostera noltei meadows in NW Spain are unknown. This study aims to explore the relationship between watershed human development (i.e., the demographic temporal evolution and land cover indicators of human pressure) and the C and N isotopic signatures determined in Z. noltei seagrass meadows located in the related estuarine areas. We measured δ15N, δ13C, and the C:N content of sediment cores, Z. noltei leaves, and epiphytes collected from three seagrass meadows located at NW Iberian Peninsula characterized by well-differentiated watersheds in terms of the intensity of the anthropogenic pressures (Caldebarcos, Lourizán, and A Ramallosa). Ages and sedimentation rates were estimated by 210Pb/137Cs dating of one sediment core from the A Ramallosa seagrass meadow, corresponding to the most populated and urbanized watershed. Magnitudes of anthropogenic pressure on the watersheds were determined by the analysis of historic demographic data and the quantification of land cover changes obtained from CORINE Land Cover database. The intense anthropogenic transformation observed in the A Ramallosa watershed resulted in increases of sedimentation rates in the Z. noltei meadow. δ15N and δ13C signatures revealed the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Sediment δ15N was the variable that best performed as an early warning eutrophication indicator, whereas δ15N in Z. noltei and epiphytic material were less coupled to the magnitudes of artificial land and population density on watershedsMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) | Ref. CTM2011-30155-C03- 02Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) | Ref. CTM2011-30155-C03-01Xunta de Galici

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.Camille Mellin, Christina C. Hicks, Damien A. Fordham, Christopher D. Golden, Marian Kjellevold, M. Aaron MacNeil, Eva Maire, Sangeeta Mangubhai, David Mouillot, Kirsty L. Nash, Johnstone O. Omukoto, James P. W. Robinson, Rick D. Stuart-Smith, Jessica Zamborain-Mason, Graham J. Edgar, and Nicholas A. J. Graha

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean