Quantifying health risks from ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in Dutch broiler production chains and potential interventions using compartmental models

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) in animals are considered a human health threat, because this type of bacteria can serve as a reservoir of antibiotic resistant genes and act as a continuous threat of the emergence of new resistant bacteria, in addition to the direct effect of making infection untreatable. Although the prevalence of ESBL producing bacteria in broilers was drastically reduced in the Netherlands, chicken meat still has the highest prevalence among meat products. Therefore, further control of the ESBL-producing E. coli in the broiler production chain is important to reduce public health risks. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention scenarios to reduce the transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli in the broiler production chain and to quantitatively estimate the risk to public health. In this study, we developed two different types of transmission models that described the observed time-related decline in prevalence during a production round: one with time-dependent decline in susceptibility and one with partial immunity to phylogenetic groups. Both models incorporated the environmental contamination effect between production rounds and within flocks. The parameter values, including transmission rate and recovery rate, were estimated by Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method using data from a longitudinal study in a Dutch organic broiler farm. We applied the models to the three production stages in the broiler production chain, beginning from the Parent Stock (PS) farms, the hatcheries, and to the broiler farms. In our models, eggs were collected from different parent stock farms and transported to the hatchery and from there to a broiler farm.The size of a flock and the number of farms were adjusted to the Dutch situation. Both models were able to describe the observed dynamics within and between the production stages equally well, with estimated ESBL-producing E. coli prevalence of 8.98% and 11.47% in broilers at slaughter and 0.12% and 0.15% in humans due to chicken consumption. Both models indicated that improving farm management to eliminate the bacteria from the environment was the most effective intervention, making this outcome robust. Although chicken meat consumption is not a major risk factor for human carriage of the bacteria according to our models, reducing the bacteria in the PS and broiler farm environment to at least one percent can further decrease the prevalence in humans

I-Move towards monitoring seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness: lessons learnt from a pilot multi-centric case-control study in europe, 2008-9

Within I-MOVE (European programme to monitor seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE)) five countries conducted IVE pilot case-control studies in 2008-9. One hundred and sixty sentinel general practitioners (GP) swabbed all elderly consulting for influenza-like illness (ILI). Influenza confirmed cases were compared to influenza negative controls. We conducted a pooled analysis to obtain a summary IVE in the age group of >or=65 years. We measured IVE in each study and assessed heterogeneity between studies qualitatively and using the I2 index. We used a one-stage pooled model with study as a fixed effect. We adjusted estimates for age-group, sex, chronic diseases, smoking, functional status, previous influenza vaccinations and previous hospitalisations. The pooled analysis included 138 cases and 189 test-negative controls. There was no statistical heterogeneity (I2=0) between studies but ILI case definition, previous hospitalisations and functional status were slightly different. The adjusted IVE was 59.1% (95% CI: 15.3-80.3%). IVE was 65.4% (95% CI: 15.6-85.8%) in the 65-74, 59.6% (95% CI: -72.6 -90.6%) in the age group of >or=75 and 56.4% (95% CI: -0.2-81.3%) for A(H3). Pooled analysis is feasible among European studies. The variables definitions need further standardisation. Larger sample sizes are needed to achieve greater precision for subgroup analysis. For 2009-10, I-MOVE will extend the study to obtain early IVE estimates in groups targeted for pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC

Geographical distribution of salmonella infected pig, cattle and sheep herds in Sweden 1993-2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Swedish salmonella control programme covers the entire production chain, from feed to food. All salmonella serotypes are notifiable. On average, less than 20 cases of salmonella in food-producing animals are reported every year. In some situations, the cases would be expected to cluster geographically. The aim of this study was to illustrate the geographic distribution of the salmonella cases detected in pigs, cattle and sheep.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on all herds with pigs, cattle and sheep found to be infected with salmonella during the time period from 1993 to 2010 were obtained from the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Using the ArcGIS software, various maps were produced of infected herds, stratified on animal species as well as salmonella serotype. Based on ocular inspection of all maps, some were collapsed and some used separately. Data were also examined for temporal trends.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No geographical clustering was observed for ovine or porcine cases. Cattle herds infected with Salmonella Dublin were mainly located in the southeast region and cattle herds infected with Salmonella Typhimurium in the most southern part of the country. Some seasonal variation was seen in cattle, but available data was not sufficient for further analyses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Analyses of data on salmonella infected herds revealed some spatial and temporal patterns for salmonella in cattle. However, despite using 18 years' of data, the number of infected herds was too low for any useful statistical analyses.</p

Impact of the ABCDE triage in primary care emergency department on the number of patient visits to different parts of the health care system in Espoo City

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many Finnish emergency departments (ED) serve both primary and secondary health care patients and are therefore referred to as combined emergency departments. Primary care doctors are responsible for the initial assessment and treatment. They, thereby, also regulate referral and access to secondary care. Primary health care EDs are easy for the public to access, leading to non-acute patient visits to the emergency department. This has caused increased queues and unnecessary difficulties in providing immediate treatment for urgent patients. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the flow of patients was changed by implementing the ABCDE-triage system in the EDs of Espoo City, Finland.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The numbers of monthly visits to doctors were recorded before and after intervention in Espoo primary care EDs. To study if the implementation of the triage system redirects patients to other health services, the numbers of monthly visits to doctors were also scored in the private health care, the public sector health services of Espoo primary care during office hours and local secondary health care ED (Jorvi hospital). A face-to-face triage system was applied in the primary care EDs as an attempt to provide immediate treatment for the most acute patients. It is based on the letters A (patient sent directly to secondary care), B (to be examined within 10 min), C (to be examined within 1 h), D (to be examined within 2 h) and E (no need for immediate treatment) for assessing the urgency of patients' treatment needs. The first step was an initial patient assessment by a health care professional (triage nurse). The introduction of this triage system was combined with information to the public on the "correct" use of emergency services.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After implementation of the ABCDE-triage system the number of patient visits to a primary care doctor decreased by up to 24% (962 visits/month) as compared to the three previous years in the EDs. The Number of visits to public sector GPs during office hours did not alter. Implementation of ABCDE-triage combined with public guidance was associated with decreased total number of doctor visits in public health care. During same period, the number of patient visits in the private health care increased. Simultaneously, the number of doctor visits in secondary health care ED did not alter.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present ABCDE-triage system combined with public guidance may reduce patient visits to primary health care EDs but not to the secondary health care EDs. Limiting the access of less urgent patients to ED may redirect the demands of patients to private sector rather than office hours GP services.</p

Landesque capital as an alternative to food storage in Melanesia: Irrigated taro terraces in New Georgia, Solomon Islands

In the Pacific islands, subsistence diversity made possible continuous production of food while welldeveloped exchange networks redistributed these foodstuffs as well as items within the prestige economy. All these were aspects of the ‘storage structures’ that enabled social and nutritional value to be saved, accumulated and later mobilised. In addition, there were investments in the land, landesque capital, which secured future food surpluses and so provided an alternative to food storage, in a region where the staple foods were mostly perishable, yams excepted, and food preservation was difficult. Landesque capital included such long-term improvements to productivity as terraces, mounds, irrigation channels, drainage ditches, soil structural changes and tree planting. These investments provided an effective alternative to food storage and made possible surplus production for exchange purposes. As an example, in the New Georgia group of the western Solomon Islands irrigated terraces, termed ruta, were constructed for growing the root crop taro (Colocasia esculenta). Surplus taro from ruta enabled inland groups to participate in regional exchange networks and so obtain the shell valuables that were produced by coastal groups. In this paper, we reconstruct how this exchange system worked in New Georgia using ethno-archaeological evidence, we chart its prehistoric rise and post-colonial fall, and we outline the factors that constrained its long-term expansion.Our gratitude for support during earlier fieldwork in the New Georgia group has already been expressed in previous publications. The 2014 project was supported by the Smuts Fund and Foreign Travel Fund, University of Cambridge, and by St John’s College, Cambridge.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Maney at http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/1749631414Y.000000004