ACCELERATION OF BUILDING DESIGN OPTIMISATION THROUGH THE USE OF KRIGING SURROGATE MODELS

ABSTRACT This paper describes an experiment to test the performance of Kriging surrogate modelling optimisation techniques on a building design problem with discrete design choices. Surrogate modelling optimisation offers advantages over traditional optimisation techniques on design problems with expensive (time consuming) performance evaluation models. The techniques are tested for both single and multi-objective optimisation problems with the objective of minimising both annual CO 2 emissions predicted by a dynamic simulation and construction cost. The estimated CO 2 emissions and costs of all possible designs were first established through comprehensive analysis using a multi-processor computer, enabling the performance of the optimisation to be assessed precisely against a known single optimum or Pareto front. The performance is compared against an evolutionary algorithm (EA) searching the dynamic simulation model on the same design problem. The results show that for this design problem, Kriging surrogate modelling optimisation is effective at finding estimates of optimum designs. In the case of the single-objective optimisation it is able to find the optimum in fewer simulation calls than the stand-alone EA. In the case of the multi-objective optimisation it is capable of finding a better Pareto front if the total number of simulations is restricted, although the time cost associated with Kriging does not always mean it is worth using

Mining Markov Network Surrogates for Value-Added Optimisation

Surrogate fitness functions are a popular technique for speeding up metaheuristics, replacing calls to a costly fitness function with calls to a cheap model. However, surrogates also represent an explicit model of the fitness function, which can be exploited beyond approximating the fitness of solutions. This paper proposes that mining surrogate fitness models can yield useful additional information on the problem to the decision maker, adding value to the optimisation process. An existing fitness model based on Markov networks is presented and applied to the optimisation of glazing on a building facade. Analysis of the model reveals how its parameters point towards the global optima of the problem after only part of the optimisation run, and reveals useful properties like the relative sensitivities of the problem variables

Experiences Marketing: A Cultural Philosophy for Contemporary Hospitality Marketing Studies

This article explores the landscape of contemporary hospitality marketing. It is argued that the teaching and academic discussions that surround the subject area adopt a predominantly positivistic approach; although important, that does not adequately reflect the nature of the industry or the products offered. Such a metrics-oriented position, although significant in the formulation of marketing strategy, does not reflect the complex experiential, nontangible nature of the hospitality product. This article presents a culturally located philosophy that reflects the multifaceted nature of the industry. The philosophy is underpinned by three precepts that draw from a multidisciplinary theoretical framework to create a more subject-specific approach to marketing, that when woven with traditional approaches can create a more effective and informed contemporary approach

Muscle recruitment patterns during the prone leg extension

BACKGROUND: The prone leg extension (PLE) is a clinical test used to evaluate the function of the lumbopelvis. It has been theorized that a normal and consistent pattern of muscle activation exists. Previous research has found two contradictory patterns of muscle activation during PLE in normal individuals. One study shows an almost simultaneous activation of the lower erector spinae and hamstring muscle group with a delayed activation of the gluteus maximus, while the second describes the order of activation being ipsilateral erector spinae (to the leg being extended), hamstrings, contralateral erector spinae and gluteus maximus. Due to the different conclusions from these two studies and the lack of quantified muscle onset times, expressed in absolute time this study attempted to quantify the muscle onset times (in milliseconds) during the prone leg extension, while noting if a consistent order of activation exists and whether a timing relationship also exists between the gluteus maximus and contralateral latissimus dorsi. METHODS: 10 asymptomatic males (Average height: 175.2 cm (SD 6.5), Average Weight 75.9 kg (SD 6.5), Average Age: 27.1(SD 1.28)) and 4 asymptomatic females (Average height 164.5 (SD 2.9), weight: 56.2 (SD 8.9), Average Age: 25 (SD 1)) performed the prone leg extension task while the myoelectric signal was recorded from the bilateral lower erector spinae, gluteus maximus and hamstring muscle groups. Activation onsets were determined from the rectified EMG signal relative to the onset of the hamstrings muscle group. RESULTS: No consistent recruitment patterns were detected for prone leg extension among the hamstring muscle group and the erector spinae. However, a consistent delay in the Gluteus Maximus firing of approximately 370 ms after the first muscle activated was found. Five out of 14 asymptomatic subjects showed a delay in gluteus maximus firing exceeding the average delay found in previous research of subjects considered to have a dysfunctional firing pattern. CONCLUSION: A consistent pattern of activation was not found. Variability was seen across subjects. These findings suggest the PLE is not sufficient for a diagnostic test due to the notable physiological variation. An overlap between normal and potentially abnormal activation patterns may exist

Post-disaster tourism: building resilience through community-led approaches in the aftermath of the 2011 disasters in Japan

Post-disaster tourism is often perceived as a form of Dark Tourism associated with death, loss and destruction. In Japan, the term Dark Tourism has gained prominence following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. This paper focuses on a community-led approach to post-disaster tourism development, initiated in the coastal area of Minamisanriku and labelled by the locals Blue Tourism. From its inception Blue Tourism incorporated non-dark activities which concentrated on the beauty of nature, social and environmental sustainability and the development of an enriched tourist experience. Its co-creational ethos helped transform some of the negative narratives of loss associated with Dark Tourism into positive accounts of communal renewal and hope. The paper highlights the limitations of Dark Tourism to post-disaster recovery and contributes new insights to the community-based tourism literature. We argue that Blue Tourism is not a type of Dark Tourism but a form of resilience which builds around local place-based practices and traditional community knowledge. Consequently, it is capable of achieving sustainable disaster recovery and tourist satisfaction simultaneously

Making sense of urban food festivals: cultural regeneration, disorder and hospitable cities

This article examines urban food festivals, and in doing so it carries out a case study of Nottingham’s Food and Drink Festival (NFDF). It contends that such festivals need to be understood in relation to local contexts, such as the reputation for alcohol-related disorder associated with Nottingham’s night-time economy. Rather than being used to attract tourism, NFDF was primarily directed at existing residents of Nottingham, where it sought to produce particular kinds of guests who would be able to invest in the city’s wider regeneration. Here, the article draws on recent academic work on hospitality in demonstrating how NFDF attempted to rebrand the city centre as a more hospitable place. It concludes by showing how visitors to NFDF exhibited a sense of generosity and pride, and argues that the meaning of urban food festivals cannot therefore simply be reduced to the logic of neoliberal governance

Sexual attitudes, pattern of communication, and sexual behavior among unmarried out-of-school youth in China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, more adolescents are engaging in premarital sex in China. However, only a limited number of studies have explored out-of-school youth's sexual attitudes and behaviors, critical for prevention intervention development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the baseline survey of a comprehensive sex education program that was conducted in a suburb of Shanghai in 2000–2002, this study describes sexual attitudes, patterns of communication on sexual matters, and premarital sexual behavior among 1,304 out-of-school youth. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the factors associated with youth's premarital sexual intercourse.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority (60%) of out-of-school youth held favorable attitudes towards premarital sex. Males were more likely to have favorable attitudes compared with females. Male youth generally did not communicate with either parent about sex, while one-third of female youth talked to their mothers about sexual matters. Both males and females chose their friends as the person with whom they were most likely to talk about sexual matters. About 18% of the youth reported having engaged in sexual intercourse. One-fifth of sexually active youth had always used a contraceptive method, and one-quarter had been pregnant (or had impregnated a partner). There were no gender differences in rate of premarital sex or frequency of contraceptive use. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, education, family structure, parent's discipline, attitudes towards premarital sex, pattern of communication and dating were significantly associated with youth premarital sex.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A substantial proportion of out-of-school youth engage in risky sexual behaviors. Prevention programs that empower communication and sexual negotiation skills, and promote condom use should be implemented for this vulnerable group.</p

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability