Financing essential HIV services: a new economic agenda.

Anna Vassall and colleagues discuss the need for, and challenges facing, innovative and sustainable financing of the HIV response. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Correlates of condom use in a sample of MSM in Ecuador

BACKGROUND: In Ecuador, the prevalence of HIV in the general population is approximately 0.3%. However, up to 17% prevalence has been reported among specific groups of homosexual and bisexual men. The objective of this study is to explore correlates of condom use among men who have sex with men (MSM) across eight cities in Ecuador. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey design was used. A questionnaire including variables on sexual behaviour, demographics, and socio-economic characteristics was distributed to a sample of MSM in eight Ecuadorian cities. RESULTS: Information was obtained for 2,594 MSM across the eight cities. The largest subcategory of self-identification was active bisexuals (35%), followed by those who described themselves as "hombrados" (masculine gays, 22%). The mean age was 25 years, and the majority were unmarried (78%), with a median of 10 years of schooling (IQR 7 – 12). Regarding condom use, 55% of those interviewed had unprotected penetrative sex with each of their last three partners, and almost 25% had never used a condom. The most important correlates of condom use were single status, high life-skills rating, and high socio-economic status (RP 5.45, 95% CI 4.26 – 6.37; RP 1.84, 95% CI 1.79 – 1.86, and RP 1.20, 95% CI 1.01 – 1.31, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our data illustrate the urgent need for targeted HIV-prevention programs for MSM populations in Ecuador. MSM have the highest HIV prevalence in the country, and condom use is extremely low. It is imperative that prevention strategies be re-evaluated and re-prioritized to more effectively respond to the Ecuadorian epidemic

Young and vulnerable: Spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for infant mortality in rural South Africa (Agincourt), 1992-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infant mortality is an important indicator of population health in a country. It is associated with several health determinants, such as maternal health, access to high-quality health care, socioeconomic conditions, and public health policy and practices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A spatial-temporal analysis was performed to assess changes in infant mortality patterns between 1992-2007 and to identify factors associated with infant mortality risk in the Agincourt sub-district, rural northeast South Africa. Period, sex, refugee status, maternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to nearest primary health care facility, and socio-economic status were examined as possible risk factors. All-cause and cause-specific mortality maps were developed to identify high risk areas within the study site. The analysis was carried out by fitting Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical negative binomial autoregressive models using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation-based Bayesian kriging was used to produce maps of all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Infant mortality increased significantly over the study period, largely due to the impact of the HIV epidemic. There was a high burden of neonatal mortality (especially perinatal) with several hot spots observed in close proximity to health facilities. Significant risk factors for all-cause infant mortality were mother's death in first year (most commonly due to HIV), death of previous sibling and increasing number of household deaths. Being born to a Mozambican mother posed a significant risk for infectious and parasitic deaths, particularly acute diarrhoea and malnutrition.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models in assessing risk factors and producing smooth maps of infant mortality risk in a health and socio-demographic surveillance system. Results showed marked geographical differences in mortality risk across a relatively small area. Prevention of vertical transmission of HIV and survival of mothers during the infants' first year in high prevalence villages needs to be urgently addressed, including expanded antenatal testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and improved access to antiretroviral therapy. There is also need to assess and improve the capacity of district hospitals for emergency obstetric and newborn care. Persisting risk factors, including inadequate provision of clean water and sanitation, are yet to be fully addressed.</p

HIV Epidemic Appraisals for Assisting in the Design of Effective Prevention Programmes: Shifting the Paradigm Back to Basics

To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes

Pattern and levels of spending allocated to HIV prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>AIDS continues to spread at an estimated 2.6 new million infections per year, making the prevention of HIV transmission a critical public health issue. The dramatic growth in global resources for AIDS has produced a steady scale-up in treatment and care that has not been equally matched by preventive services. This paper is a detailed analysis of how countries are choosing to spend these more limited prevention funds.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed prevention spending in 69 low- and middle-income countries with a variety of epidemic types, using data from national domestic spending reports. Spending information was from public and international sources and was analyzed based on the National AIDS Spending Assessment (NASA) methods and classifications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, prevention received 21% of HIV resources compared to 53% of funding allocated to treatment and care. Prevention relies primarily on international donors, who accounted for 65% of all prevention resources and 93% of funding in low-income countries. For the subset of 53 countries that provided detailed spending information, we found that 60% of prevention resources were spent in five areas: communication for social and behavioral change (16%), voluntary counselling and testing (14%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (13%), blood safety (10%) and condom programs (7%). Only 7% of funding was spent on most-at-risk populations and less than 1% on male circumcision. Spending patterns did not consistently reflect current evidence and the HIV specific transmission context of each country.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite recognition of its importance, countries are not allocating resources in ways that are likely to achieve the greatest impact on prevention across all epidemic types. Within prevention spending itself, a greater share of resources need to be matched with interventions that approximate the specific needs and drivers of each country's epidemic.</p

Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic <it>falciparum </it>malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems.</p