Booms and busts in China's stock market : estimates based on fundamentals

This paper empirically models China’s stock prices using conventional fundamentals: corporate earnings, risk-free interest rate, and a proxy for equity risk premium. It uses the estimated long-run stock price misalignments to date booms and busts, and analyses equity market reforms and excess liquidity as potential drivers of these stock price misalignments. Our results show that China’s equity prices can be reasonable well modelled using fundamentals, but that various booms and busts can be identified. Policy actions, either taking the form of deposit rate changes, equity market reforms or excess liquidity, seem to have significantly contributed to these misalignment

Conceptos para la cuantificación del consumo estructural y su aplicación a estructuras generadas por elementos preflectados

In the sphere of decision-making for resistant structures project, the mere mechanical analysis of a model does not suggest the possible material reduction resulting from changes in the structural form. In order to quantify these improvements it is essential to be able to measure the structural consumption in the early stages of design. So in this paper we present and compare two of the currently most developed theories that connect geometry with material consumption of the structure. To demonstrate the versatility of these concepts, they will be applied to a type of structure with both residual stresses and large deformations: coupled structures. This particular case of structures is generated by pre-bent elements, where the components are associated by pairs to form tied-archs groups.En el ámbito del proceso de toma de decisiones propio del proyecto de estructuras resistentes, el mero análisis mecánico de un modelo no permite vislumbrar las posibles disminuciones de material derivadas de modificaciones en la forma estructural. Dado que para cuantificar estas mejoras es imprescindible poder medir el consumo estructural ya en las primeras fases de diseño, en el presente trabajo se presentan y comparan dos de las teorías actualmente más desarrolladas que relacionan la geometría con el consumo estructural. Para demostrar la versatilidad de estos conceptos se aplicarán a continuación a un tipo de estructuras que cuenta simultáneamente con esfuerzos internos previos y grandes deformaciones: las estructuras emparejadas, un caso particular de estructuras generadas por elementos preflectados, en los que los componentes se asocian dos a dos para formar grupos arco-tirante

Prevalence of depression during the COVID-19 outbreak: A meta-analysis of community-based studies

Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic, declared on March 11, 2020, constitute an extraordinary health, social and economic global challenge. The impact on people''s mental health is expected to be high. This paper sought to systematically review community-based studies on depression conducted during the COVID-19 and estimate the pooled prevalence of depression. Method: We searched for cross-sectional, community-based studies listed on PubMed or Web of Science from January 1, 2020 to May 8, 2020 that reported prevalence of depression. A random effect model was used to estimate the pooled proportion of depression. Results: A total of 12 studies were included in the meta-analysis, with prevalence rates of depression ranging from 7.45% to 48.30%. The pooled prevalence of depression was 25% (95% CI: 18% - 33%), with significant heterogeneity between studies (I2 = 99.60%, p < .001). Conclusions: Compared with a global estimated prevalence of depression of 3.44% in 2017, our pooled prevalence of 25% appears to be 7 times higher, thus suggesting an important impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on people's mental health. Addressing mental health during and after this global health crisis should be placed into the international and national public health agenda to improve citizens’ wellbeing

The post-pandemic inflationary episode in advanced economies: a historical perspective

Rationale Inflation surged in the world economy from 2021 owing to a succession of shocks, including most notably the rise in energy prices. However, it appears to have peaked in many countries over the past few months, marking the start of a declining phase. This article analyses, for a group of advanced economies, the features of the current inflationary process vis-à-vis other past episodes, paying special attention to those triggered by energy shocks. Takeaways •The post-pandemic surge in inflation has occurred faster than in previous inflationary periods. However, the scale of the rising inflation in the current episode is similar to that of past episodes arising from energy price increases. •According to the historical pattern, underlying inflation reaches its peak very near the time headline inflation does. However, in the current inflationary process there is a lag of around six months and underlying inflation is more persistent. •The synchronisation between countries regarding inflation is greater in inflationary processes caused by energy price shocks and is stronger in the current episode than in the past owing to the confluence of several global shocks

Prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in university students during the COVID-19 pandemic: a meta-analysis attending SDG 3 and 4 of the 2030 agenda

Background: Most universities around the world have been heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. Many students were isolated at home and underwent a forced transition from face-to-face learning to e-learning, at least in the first few months. The subsequent months and years were typically characterised by a slow return to normal learning under COVID-19 protocols and restrictions. A potential consequence of the lockdowns, social restrictions and changes to learning is the development of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) in university students, affecting their health and well-being (SDG3) and quality of education (SDG4). Materials and Methods: Medline was searched through PubMed for studies on the prevalence of PTSD in university students from 1 December 2019 to 31 December 2021. The pooled prevalence of PTSD was calculated with random-effects models. Results: A total of six studies were included, across which the prevalence of PTSD among university students was 23%. Meta-regression showed that the prevalence of PTSD was significantly higher with older age, but independent of the percentage of women in a study or its methodological quality. Conclusions: Our results suggest that students suffer from PTSD at a moderate rate. Measures are needed to address the mental health issues of university students that have arisen during COVID-19 all around the world. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Circulating kisspeptin and anti-müllerian hormone levels, and insulin resistance in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

Objective: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the available evidence regarding circulating kisspeptin and anti-müllerian hormone (AMH) and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index in adolescents and women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Method: We performed a comprehensive literature search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies evaluating circulating kisspeptin levels in women with and without PCOS published until September 24th, 2020. Co-primary outcomes were the HOMA-IR index and AMH. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random-effects models were used to estimate outcomes, and effects reported as mean difference (MD) or standardized MD (SMD) and their 95 % confidence interval (CI). The systematic review and meta-analysis was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) as number CRD42020205030. Results: We evaluated 18 studies including, 1282 PCOS cases and 977 controls. Participants with PCOS were younger (MD = −2.38 years, 95 %CI -4.32 to -0.44), with higher BMI (MD = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.54–1.78), waist-to-hip ratio (MD = 0.04, 95 %CI 0.02 to 0.05), circulating kisspeptin (SMD = 1.15, 95 %CI 0.68–1.62), luteinizing hormone (SMD = 1.29, 95 %CI 0.76–1.83), AMH (SMD = 0.97, 95 %CI 0.60–1,34), total testosterone (SMD = 2.48, 95 %CI 1.73–3.23), free testosterone (SMD = 1.37, 95 %CI 0.56–2.17), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (SMD = 0.72, 95 %CI 0.32–1.13) levels, and Ferriman-Gallwey score (SMD = 5.08, 95 %CI 2.76–7.39), and lower sex hormone-binding globulin level (SMD = −1.34, 95 %CI −2.15 to −0.52). Besides, participants with PCOS had higher HOMA-IR index (SMD = 0.76, 95 %CI 0.35–1.17), and circulating insulin (SMD = 0.75, 95 %CI 0.30–1.19), leptin (SMD = 2.82, 95 %CI 1.35–4.29), and triglycerides (SMD = 2.15, 95 %CI 1.08–3.23) levels than participants without the syndrome. The meta-regression did not identify significant factors influencing circulating kisspeptin. Conclusion: Patients with PCOS showed higher kisspeptin, LH, insulin, AMH, and androgen levels and HOMA-IR index, and lower sex hormone-binding globulin levels than those without the syndrome

Anxiety and risk of vascular dementia in an elderly community sample: The role of sex

Background: To assess the association between anxiety and risk of vascular dementia (VaD), as well as potential sex differences, in a community-based cohort. Methods: A random sample of 4057 dementia-free community participants aged 55 or older, from the longitudinal, community-based Zaragoza Dementia and Depression Project (ZARADEMP) study were followed for 4.5 years. Geriatric Mental State B (GMS)-Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy (AGECAT) was used for the assessment and diagnosis of anxiety, and a panel of research psychiatrists diagnosed the incident cases of VaD according to DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of mental disordes). Multivariate survival analysis with competing risk regression model was performed. Results: In men, the incidence rate of VaD was significantly higher among anxiety subjects compared with non-anxiety subjects (incidence rate ratio (IRR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 3.24 (1.13–9.35); p = 0.029), and no difference was observed in women (IRR (95%CI): 0.68 (0.19– 2.23); p = 0.168). In the multivariate model, for men, cases of anxiety had 2.6-fold higher risk of VaD (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR): 2.61; 95%CI: 0.88–7.74) when all potential confounding factors were controlled, with no statistical significance (p = 0.084), but a clinically relevant effect (Cohen’s d: 0.74). No association was found in women. Conclusions: In men, but not in women, risk of VaD was higher among individuals with anxiety, with a clinically relevant effect. Potential anxiety-related preventive interventions for VaD might be tailored to men and women separately

A novel score for predicting alzheimer’s disease risk from late life psychopathological and health risk factors

With the increasing size of the aging population, dementia risk reduction has become a main public health concern. Dementia risk models or indices may help to identify individuals in the community at high risk to develop dementia. We have aimed to develop a novel dementia risk index focused on the late-life (65 years or more) population, that addresses risk factors for Alz-heimer’s disease (AD) easily identifiable at primary care settings. These risk factors include some shown to be associated with the risk of AD but not featured in existing indices, such as hearing loss and anxiety. Our index is also the first to account for the competing risk of death. The Zaragoza Dementia and Depression Project (ZARADEMP) Alzheimer Dementia Risk Score predicts an indi-vidual´s risk of developing AD within 5 years. The probability of late onset AD significantly in-creases in those with risk scores between 21 and 28 and, furthermore, is almost 4-fold higher for those with risk scores of 29 or higher. Our index may provide a practical instrument to identify subjects at high risk of AD and to design preventive strategies targeting the contributing risk factors

Anhedonia as a potential risk factor of alzheimer’s disease in a community-dwelling elderly sample: Results from the zarademp project

(1) Introduction: Dementia is a major public health problem, and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most frequent subtype. Clarifying the potential risk factors is necessary in order to improve dementia-prevention strategies and quality of life. Here, our purpose was to investigate the role of the absence of hedonic tone; anhedonia, understood as the reduction on previous enjoyable daily activities, which occasionally is underdetected and underdiagnosed; and the risk of developing AD in a cognitively unimpaired and non-depressed population sample. (2) Method: We used data from the Zaragoza Dementia and Depression (ZARADEMP) project, a longitudinal epidemiological study on dementia and depression. After excluding subjects with dementia, a sample of 2830 dwellers aged =65 years was followed for 4.5 years. The geriatric mental state examination was used to identify cases of anhedonia. AD was diagnosed by a panel of research psychiatrists according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria. A multivariate survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression model were performed, and the analysis was controlled by an analysis for the presence of clinically significant depression. (3) Results: We found a significant association between anhedonia cases and AD risk in the univariate analysis (hazard ratio (HR): 2.37; 95% CI: 1.04–5.40). This association persisted more strongly in the fully adjusted model. (4) Conclusions: Identifying cognitively intact individuals with anhedonia is a priority to implement preventive strategies that could delay the progression of cognitive and functional impairment in subjects at risk of AD

Prevalence of anxiety in medical students during the covid-19 pandemic: A rapid systematic review with meta-analysis

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought a great deal of pressure for medical students, who typically show elevated anxiety rates. Our aim is to investigate the prevalence of anxiety in medical students during this pandemic. This systematic review and mini meta-analysis has been conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. Two researchers independently searched PubMed on 26 August 2020 for cross-sectional studies on medical students during the COVID-19 outbreak, with no language restrictions applied. We then performed a manual search to detect other potentially eligible investigations. To the 1361 records retrieved in the initial search, 4 more were added by manual search on medRxiv. Finally, eight studies were finally included for qualitative and quantitative analysis, which yielded an estimated prevalence of anxiety of 28% (95% CI: 22–34%), with significant heterogeneity between studies. The prevalence of anxiety in medical students is similar to that prior to the pandemic but correlates with several specific COVID-related stressors. While some preventive and risk factors have been previously identified in a non-pandemic context, knowledge and cognitions on COVID-19 transmission, treatment, prognosis and prevention negatively correlate with anxiety, emerging as a key preventive factor that may provide a rationale for why the levels of anxiety have remained stable in medical students during the pandemic while increasing in their non-medical peers and the general population. Other reasons for the invariability of anxiety rates in this population are discussed. A major limitation of our review is that Chinese students comprised 89% the total sample, which could compromise the external validity of our work