Has Anheuser-Busch Let the Steam Out of Craft Beer? The Economics of Acquiring Craft Brewers

The craft beer segment in the U.S. has grown from a meager 20 brewers in the 1980s to over 7,000 today and is approaching a 15% market share. Macrobrewers initially responded by internal product differentiation but then began acquiring craft brewers, provoking concerns about the continuing viability of independent, local brewers. We analyze the economic consequences of the most prominent of these acquisitions: the Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) purchase of Goose Island in 2011. Using variation in pre-acquisition ABI market share to account for the effects of the distribution tier in the beer industry and the influence of macrobrewers on the distribution tier, we analyze price and quantity effects in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic states as well as the local region where Goose Island was founded. We also evaluate the effect on varieties of beer available to consumers in off-premise accounts to analyze the effect of ABI’s acquisition on independent, local breweries who must jockey for shelf space with macrobrewers. By the usual metrics of merger retrospectives, we find large gains in sales for craft brewers as a result of ABI’s entry by acquisition, possibly the result of marketing spillovers attracting new consumers to craft beer. We also find large negative effects on product variety, indicating greater difficulty for craft brewers to gain shelf placement in off-premise accounts. We find that these effects are most pronounced in Goose Island’s regional birthplace of Illinois

Impact of effective instruction within middle school classrooms on at-risk student problem behavior [abstract]

Abstract only availableTeachers are increasingly faced with students who present challenging behavior in the classroom. When faced with such challenges, educators look for effective ways to manage problem behaviors, as well as to prevent problems, through the use of effective instructional strategies. This study investigates the impact of using classroom and student self-management supports in relation to work completion in order to increase academic success in the classroom for students identified as behavioral concerns. Direct observation data on teacher and student variables was collected and visually analyzed. Results indicated that the combination of classroom prompts and feedback paired with a self-management strategy increased student academic success. Implications for other teachers who struggle with challenging behavior in the classroom are discussed

The Effects of Different Levels of Ambient Oxygen in an Oxygen-Enriched Surgical Environment and Production of Surgical Fires

Surgical fires require an oxygen-enriched environment, a flammable substrate, and an ignition source. We hypothesized ambient oxygen concentration is proportional to the latency time to combustion and the incidence of surgical fires that are detected. We examined latency time and number of events, utilizing the VanCleave et al model of intraoral fire ignition under 60, 80, and 100% oxygen concentration and flow rates of 4 and 10 L/min. Results demonstrated that ambient oxygen concentration and flow rate correlated positively to the initiation of combustion. The number of combustion events with 60% oxygen was significantly lower than with both 80% ( p = .0168) and 100% ( p = .002). Likewise, the number of events with 80% oxygen was significantly lower than with 100% oxygen ( p = .0019). Flow rate has a significant effect on the time to the first event ( p = .0002), time to first audible pop ( p = .0039), and time to first flash or fire ( p < .0001). No combustion occurred at oxygen concentrations less than 60% or flows less than 4 L/min. We conclude that latency time to combustion is directly proportional to ambient oxygen concentration and flow rate. Minimum oxygen concentration and flow rate were identified in our model. Further research is indicated to determine the minimal clinical oxygen concentration and flow rate needed to support combustion of an intraoral fire in a patient

'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1844/abstract.Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the "gambler's fallacy." In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial-by-trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial-by-trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures ("post-decision wagering") as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Adaptive radiation along a deeply conserved genetic line of least resistance in \u3cem\u3eAnolis\u3c/em\u3e lizards

On microevolutionary timescales, adaptive evolution depends upon both natural selection and the underlying genetic architecture of traits under selection, which may constrain evolutionary outcomes. Whether such genetic constraints shape phenotypic diversity over macroevolutionary timescales is more controversial, however. One key prediction is that genetic constraints should bias the early stages of species divergence along “genetic lines of least resistance” defined by the genetic (co)variance matrix, G. This bias is expected to erode over time as species means and G matrices diverge, allowing phenotypes to evolve away from the major axis of variation. We tested for evidence of this signal in West Indian Anolis lizards, an iconic example of adaptive radiation. We found that the major axis of morphological evolution was well aligned with a major axis of genetic variance shared by all species despite separation times of 20–40 million years, suggesting that divergence occurred along a conserved genetic line of least resistance. Further, this signal persisted even as G itself evolved, apparently because the largest evolutionary changes in G were themselves aligned with the line of genetic least resistance. Our results demonstrate that the signature of genetic constraint may persist over much longer timescales than previously appreciated, even in the presence of evolving genetic architecture. This pattern may have arisen either because pervasive constraints have biased the course of adaptive evolution or because the G matrix itself has been shaped by selection to conform to the adaptive landscape

Sanitation of Gaming Chips

Those that work in and the customers who enjoy the casino environment may be at risk for exposure to infectious diseases, especially bacterial diseases. The purpose of this study to determine if and what type of bacterial microorganisms live on gaming chips. A total of 26 gaming chips (13 used actively in a casino and 13 never used) were utilized for the study. Swabs of the chips were performed and placed on blood agar Petri dishes where cultures were allowed to grow for 48 hours. The results of this growth showed a statistically significant number of bacteria and fungi development with a p \u3c 0.05. Additional statistical analysis was performed on the level of contamination based on used versus unused chips and on the location of the swab related to the obverse, reverse or rim of the chip, with overall results being statistically significant for the presence of pathogenic contaminants

Update to the Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) protocol: statistical analysis plan for a prospective, multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational research suggests that combined therapy with Vitamin C, thiamine and hydrocortisone may reduce mortality in patients with septic shock. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) trial is a multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled trial designed to test the efficacy of combination therapy with vitamin C (1.5 g), thiamine (100 mg), and hydrocortisone (50 mg) given every 6 h for up to 16 doses in patients with respiratory or circulatory dysfunction (or both) resulting from sepsis. The primary outcome is ventilator- and vasopressor-free days with mortality as the key secondary outcome. Recruitment began in August 2018 and is ongoing; 501 participants have been enrolled to date, with a planned maximum sample size of 2000. The Data and Safety Monitoring Board reviewed interim results at N = 200, 300, 400 and 500, and has recommended continuing recruitment. The next interim analysis will occur when N = 1000. This update presents the statistical analysis plan. Specifically, we provide definitions for key treatment and outcome variables, and for intent-to-treat, per-protocol, and safety analysis datasets. We describe the planned descriptive analyses, the main analysis of the primary end point, our approach to secondary and exploratory analyses, and handling of missing data. Our goal is to provide enough detail that our approach could be replicated by an independent study group, thereby enhancing the transparency of the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03509350. Registered on 26 April 2018

Wood Dust in Joineries and Furniture Manufacturing: An Exposure Determinant and Intervention Study.

: To assess wood dust exposures and determinants in joineries and furniture manufacturing and to evaluate the efficacy of specific interventions on dust emissions under laboratory conditions. Also, in a subsequent follow-up study in a small sample of joinery workshops, we aimed to develop, implement, and evaluate a cost-effective and practicable intervention to reduce dust exposures. : Personal inhalable dust (n = 201) was measured in 99 workers from 10 joineries and 3 furniture-making factories. To assess exposure determinants, full-shift video exposure monitoring (VEM) was conducted in 19 workers and task-based VEM in 32 workers (in 7 joineries and 3 furniture factories). We assessed the efficacy of vacuum extraction on hand tools and the use of vacuum cleaners instead of sweeping and dry wiping under laboratory conditions. These measures were subsequently implemented in three joinery workshops with 'high' (&gt;4 mg m-3) and one with 'low' (&lt;2 mg m-3) baseline exposures. We also included two control workshops (one 'low' and one 'high' exposure workshop) in which no interventions were implemented. Exposures were measured 4 months prior and 4 months following the intervention. : Average (geometric means) exposures in joinery and furniture making were 2.5 mg m-3 [geometric standard deviations (GSD) 2.5] and 0.6 mg m-3 (GSD 2.3), respectively. In joinery workers cleaning was associated with a 3.0-fold higher (P &lt; 0.001) dust concentration compared to low exposure tasks (e.g. gluing), while the use of hand tools showed 3.0- to 11.0-fold higher (P &lt; 0.001) exposures. In furniture makers, we found a 5.4-fold higher exposure (P &lt; 0.001) with using a table/circular saw. Laboratory efficiency experiments showed a 10-fold decrease in exposure (P &lt; 0.001) when using a vacuum cleaner. Vacuum extraction on hand tools combined with a downdraft table reduced exposures by 42.5% for routing (P &lt; 0.1) and 85.5% for orbital sanding (P &lt; 0.001). Following intervention measures in joineries, a borderline statistically significant (P &lt; 0.10) reduction in exposure of 30% was found in workshops with 'high' baseline exposures, but no reduction was shown in the workshop with 'low' baseline exposures. : Wood dust exposure is high in joinery workers and (to a lesser extent) furniture makers with frequent use of hand tools and cleaning being key drivers of exposure. Vacuum extraction on hand tools and alternative cleaning methods reduced workplace exposures substantially, but may be insufficient to achieve compliance with current occupational exposure limits.<br/

An interpretative phenomenological analysis of posttraumatic growth in adults bereaved by suicide

This study explored experiences of posttraumatic growth in adults bereaved by suicide. Six participants were interviewed using a semi-structured interview schedule. Transcribed interviews were analyzed from an interpretative phenomenological framework. Two superordinate themes, with three ordinate themes in each, were identified: (a) positive growth (“life view,” “knowledge of self,” and “relation to others”) and (b) social context (“gaze of others,” “public guise,” and “solace of other survivors”). Suicide survivors gain extra insights due to their experiences, but are reluctant to acknowledge that they do. This requires consideration in theoretical and clinical setting