Randomizations of models as metric structures

The notion of a randomization of a first order structure was introduced by Keisler in the paper Randomizing a Model, Advances in Math. 1999. The idea was to form a new structure whose elements are random elements of the original first order structure. In this paper we treat randomizations as continuous structures in the sense of Ben Yaacov and Usvyatsov. In this setting, the earlier results show that the randomization of a complete first order theory is a complete theory in continuous logic that admits elimination of quantifiers and has a natural set of axioms. We show that the randomization operation preserves the properties of being omega-categorical, omega-stable, and stable

A Measurement of the Damping Tail of the Cosmic Microwave Background Power Spectrum with the South Pole Telescope

We present a measurement of the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT). The data consist of 790 deg^2 of sky observed at 150 GHz during 2008 and 2009. Here we present the power spectrum over the multipole range 650 < ℓ < 3000, where it is dominated by primary CMB anisotropy. We combine this power spectrum with the power spectra from the seven-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) data release to constrain cosmological models. We find that the SPT and WMAP data are consistent with each other and, when combined, are well fit by a spatially flat, ΛCDM cosmological model. The SPT+WMAP constraint on the spectral index of scalar fluctuations is n_s = 0.9663 ± 0.0112. We detect, at ~5σ significance, the effect of gravitational lensing on the CMB power spectrum, and find its amplitude to be consistent with the ΛCDM cosmological model. We explore a number of extensions beyond the ΛCDM model. Each extension is tested independently, although there are degeneracies between some of the extension parameters. We constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio to be r < 0.21 (95% CL) and constrain the running of the scalar spectral index to be dn_s /dln k = –0.024 ± 0.013. We strongly detect the effects of primordial helium and neutrinos on the CMB; a model without helium is rejected at 7.7σ, while a model without neutrinos is rejected at 7.5σ. The primordial helium abundance is measured to be Y_p = 0.296 ± 0.030, and the effective number of relativistic species is measured to be N_eff = 3.85 ± 0.62. The constraints on these models are strengthened when the CMB data are combined with measurements of the Hubble constant and the baryon acoustic oscillation feature. Notable improvements include ns = 0.9668 ± 0.0093, r < 0.17 (95% CL), and N_eff = 3.86 ± 0.42. The SPT+WMAP data show a mild preference for low power in the CMB damping tail, and while this preference may be accommodated by models that have a negative spectral running, a high primordial helium abundance, or a high effective number of relativistic species, such models are disfavored by the abundance of low-redshift galaxy clusters

Dependence Logic with Generalized Quantifiers: Axiomatizations

We prove two completeness results, one for the extension of dependence logic by a monotone generalized quantifier Q with weak interpretation, weak in the meaning that the interpretation of Q varies with the structures. The second result considers the extension of dependence logic where Q is interpreted as "there exists uncountable many." Both of the axiomatizations are shown to be sound and complete for FO(Q) consequences.Comment: 17 page

Neutrinos in Non-linear Structure Formation - a Simple SPH Approach

We present a novel method for implementing massive neutrinos in N-body simulations. Instead of sampling the neutrino velocity distribution by individual point particles we take neutrino free-streaming into account by treating it as an effective redshift dependent sound speed in a perfect isothermal fluid, and assume a relation between the sound speed and velocity dispersion of the neutrinos. Although the method fails to accurately model the true neutrino power spectrum, it is able to calculate the total matter power spectrum to the same accuracy as more complex hybrid neutrino methods, except on very small scales. We also present an easy way to update the publicly available Gadget-2 version with this neutrino approximation.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Climate Change Technology R&D Portfolio Decision Making Under Uncertainty

In this project we have completed, or are in the process of, collecting and analyzing information on seven energy technologies – solar photovoltaics, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, electricity from biomass, liquid bio-fuels, and batteries – in regards to their potential impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have collected expert elicitations, relating U.S. government funding trajectories to probabilities of success. We then used MiniCAM, a technologically-detailed Integrated Assessnent Model to determine the impact on the marginal cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, if the technologies were successful. Finally, we have performed initial analysis on portfolios of technologies. This project has partially supported nine papers, either published, under review, or under preparation for such journals as Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, Climatic Change, Management Science, and Transportation Research

Model selection applied to reconstruction of the Primordial Power Spectrum

The preferred shape for the primordial spectrum of curvature perturbations is determined by performing a Bayesian model selection analysis of cosmological observations. We first reconstruct the spectrum modelled as piecewise linear in \log k between nodes in k-space whose amplitudes and positions are allowed to vary. The number of nodes together with their positions are chosen by the Bayesian evidence, so that we can both determine the complexity supported by the data and locate any features present in the spectrum. In addition to the node-based reconstruction, we consider a set of parameterised models for the primordial spectrum: the standard power-law parameterisation, the spectrum produced from the Lasenby & Doran (LD) model and a simple variant parameterisation. By comparing the Bayesian evidence for different classes of spectra, we find the power-law parameterisation is significantly disfavoured by current cosmological observations, which show a preference for the LD model.Comment: Minor changes to match version accepted by JCA

Beginning of stability theory for Polish Spaces

We consider stability theory for Polish spaces and more generally for definable structures. We succeed to prove existence of indiscernibles under reasonable conditions

On theories of random variables

We study theories of spaces of random variables: first, we consider random variables with values in the interval $[0,1]$, then with values in an arbitrary metric structure, generalising Keisler's randomisation of classical structures. We prove preservation and non-preservation results for model theoretic properties under this construction: i) The randomisation of a stable structure is stable. ii) The randomisation of a simple unstable structure is not simple. We also prove that in the randomised structure, every type is a Lascar type

Searching for hidden mirror symmetries in CMB fluctuations from WMAP 7 year maps

We search for hidden mirror symmetries at large angular scales in the WMAP 7 year Internal Linear Combination map of CMB temperature anisotropies using global pixel based estimators introduced for this aim. Two different axes are found for which the CMB intensity pattern is anomalously symmetric (or anti-symmetric) under reflection with respect to orthogonal planes at the 99.84(99.96)% CL (confidence level), if compared to a result for an arbitrary axis in simulations without the symmetry. We have verified that our results are robust to the introduction of the galactic mask. The direction of such axes is close to the CMB kinematic dipole and nearly orthogonal to the ecliptic plane, respectively. If instead the real data are compared to those in simulations taken with respect to planes for which the maximal mirror symmetry is generated by chance, the confidence level decreases to 92.39 (76.65)%. But when the effect in question translates into the anomalous alignment between normals to planes of maximal mirror (anti)-symmetry and these natural axes mentioned. We also introduce the representation of the above estimators in the harmonic domain, confirming the results obtained in the pixel one. The symmetry anomaly is shown to be almost entirely due to low multipoles, so it may have a cosmological and even primordial origin. Contrary, the anti-symmetry one is mainly due to intermediate multipoles that probably suggests its non-fundamental nature. We have demonstrated that these anomalies are not connected to the known issue of the low variance in WMAP observations and we have checked that axially symmetric parts of these anomalies are small, so that the axes are not the symmetry ones.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables. Consideration and discussion expanded, 5 figures and 1 table added, main conclusions unchange

Evidence for extra radiation? Profile likelihood versus Bayesian posterior

A number of recent analyses of cosmological data have reported hints for the presence of extra radiation beyond the standard model expectation. In order to test the robustness of these claims under different methods of constructing parameter constraints, we perform a Bayesian posterior-based and a likelihood profile-based analysis of current data. We confirm the presence of a slight discrepancy between posterior- and profile-based constraints, with the marginalised posterior preferring higher values of the effective number of neutrino species N_eff. This can be traced back to a volume effect occurring during the marginalisation process, and we demonstrate that the effect is related to the fact that cosmic microwave background (CMB) data constrain N_eff only indirectly via the redshift of matter-radiation equality. Once present CMB data are combined with external information about, e.g., the Hubble parameter, the difference between the methods becomes small compared to the uncertainty of N_eff. We conclude that the preference of precision cosmological data for excess radiation is "real" and not an artifact of a specific choice of credible/confidence interval construction.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures; v2: discussion section expanded and references added, version accepted for publication by JCA