Risk assessment of estuaries under climate change: lessons from Western Europe

Climate changewith rising sea levels and possible changes in surge levels and wave climate will have a large impact on how we protect our coastal areas and cities. Here the focus is on estuarine locations not only affected by tide and surge propagation, but also potentially influenced by freshwater discharge. Mitigation measures might be diverse ranging from pure hard ‘engineering’ solutions all theway to significant realignment. The variation in the type/origin and extent of the flood sources greatly influences subsequent risk management measures. At the same time, society is increasingly demanding that we take a holistic view on risk management, embracing and balancing safety, ecological and socio-economic aspects. This requires that all these diverse factors need to be considered together and integrated. In this context, the Source–Pathway–Receptor (SPR) approach offers a powerful holistic tool to investigate changing risk connected to extreme events. The traditional SPR approachwith a consecutive treatment of the flood, pathway and receptor is well understood and is widely used in coastal flood risk analysis. Here an enhanced 2D conceptual version of the SPR method is used to better describe the systemand to allow flexibility in considering multiple scales, flood sources and pathways. The newapproach is demonstrated by three estuarine case studies inwestern Europe: the Gironde estuary, France; the Dendermonde region in the Scheldt estuary, Belgium; and HafenCity (Hamburg) in the Elbe estuary, Germany. They differ considerably in the surface area considered, in the type of flood sources, and hence also in the SPR configuration. After a brief introduction of the typical characteristics of the three study sites including some lessons learned from past flood protection measures, the differences in application and results of the SPR approach are discussed. Emphasis is on the specific aspects for each study site, but embedded in a generic SPR framework. The resulting generic lessons learned about the flood sources and how this shapes subsequent analysis are transferable to numerous important estuaries worldwide.status: publishe

Catchment-coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment-coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form. © Springer-Verlag 2004