Increased rates of large-magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan in the late Neogene and Quaternary

Tephra layers in marine sediment cores from scientific ocean drilling largely record high-magnitude silicic explosive eruptions in the Japan arc for up to the last 20 million years. Analysis of the thickness variation with distance of 180 tephra layers from a global dataset suggests that the majority of the visible tephra layers used in this study are the products of caldera-forming eruptions with magnitude (M) >6, considering their distances at the respective drilling sites to their likely volcanic sources. Frequency of visible tephra layers in cores indicates a marked increase in rates of large magnitude explosive eruptions at ~8 Ma, 6–4 Ma and further increase after ~2 Ma. These changes are attributed to major changes in tectonic plate interactions. Lower rates of large magnitude explosive volcanism in the Miocene are related to a strike-slip dominated boundary (and temporary cessation or deceleration of subduction) between the Philippine Sea Plate and southwest Japan, combined with the possibility that much of the arc in northern Japan was submerged beneath sea level partly due to previous tectonic extension of Northern Honshu related to formation of the Sea of Japan. Changes in plate motions and subduction dynamics during the ~8 Ma to present period led to (1) increased arc-normal subduction in southwest Japan (and resumption of arc volcanism) and (2) shift from extension to compression of the upper plate in northeast Japan, leading to uplift, crustal thickening and favourable conditions for accumulation of the large volumes of silicic magma needed for explosive caldera-forming eruptions

Late Cenozoic tephrostratigraphy offshore the southern Central American Volcanic Arc: 2. Implications for magma production rates and subduction erosion

Pacific drill sites offshore Central America provide the unique opportunity to study the evolution of large explosive volcanism and the geotectonic evolution of the continental margin back into the Neogene. The temporal distribution of tephra layers established by tephrochonostratigraphy in Part 1 indicates a nearly continuous highly explosive eruption record for the Costa Rican and the Nicaraguan volcanic arc within the last 8 M.y. The widely distributed marine tephra layers comprise the major fraction of the respective erupted tephra volumes and masses thus providing insights into regional and temporal variations of large-magnitude explosive eruptions along the southern Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA). We observe three pulses of enhanced explosive magmatism between 0-1 Ma at the Cordillera Central, between 1-2 Ma at the Guanacaste and at >3 Ma at the Western Nicaragua segments. Averaged over the long-term the minimum erupted magma flux (per unit arc length) is ∼0.017 g/ms. Tephra ages, constrained by Ar-Ar dating and by correlation with dated terrestrial tephras, yield time-variable accumulation rates of the intercalated pelagic sediments with four prominent phases of peak sedimentation rates that relate to tectonic processes of subduction erosion. The peak rate at >2.3 Ma near Osa particularly relates to initial Cocos Ridge subduction which began at 2.91±0.23 Ma as inferred by the 1.5 M.y. delayed appearance of the OIB geochemical signal in tephras from Barva volcano at 1.42 Ma. Subsequent tectonic re-arrangements probably involved crustal extension on the Guanacaste segment that favored the 2-1 Ma period of unusually massive rhyolite production

A pulse of mid-Pleistocene rift volcanism in Ethiopia at the dawn of modern humans

The Ethiopian Rift Valley hosts the longest record of human co-existence with volcanoes on Earth, however, current understanding of the magnitude and timing of large explosive eruptions in this region is poor. Detailed records of volcanism are essential for interpreting the palaeoenvironments occupied by our hominin ancestors; and also for evaluating the volcanic hazards posed to the 10 million people currently living within this active rift zone. Here we use new geochronological evidence to suggest that a 200 km-long segment of rift experienced a major pulse of explosive volcanic activity between 320 and 170 ka. During this period, at least four distinct volcanic centres underwent large-volume (>10 km3) caldera-forming eruptions, and eruptive fluxes were elevated five times above the average eruption rate for the past 700 ka. We propose that such pulses of episodic silicic volcanism would have drastically remodelled landscapes and ecosystems occupied by early hominin populations

The 1815 Tambora ash fall:Implications for transport and deposition of distal ash on land and in the deep sea

Tambora volcano lies on the Sanggar Peninsula of Sumbawa Island in the Indonesian archipelago. During the great 1815 explosive eruption, the majority of the erupted pyroclastic material was dispersed and subsequently deposited into the Indian Ocean and Java Sea. This study focuses on the grain size distribution of distal 1815 Tambora ash deposited in the deep sea compared to ash fallen on land. Grain size distribution is an important factor in assessing potential risks to aviation and human health, and provides additional information about the ash transport mechanisms within volcanic umbrella clouds. Grain size analysis was performed using high precision laser diffraction for a particle range of 0. 2 μm-2 mm diameter. The results indicate that the deep-sea samples provide a smooth transition to the land samples in terms of grain size distributions despite the different depositional environments. Even the very fine ash fraction (\u3c10 μm) is deposited in the deep sea, suggesting vertical density currents as a fast and effective means of transport to the seafloor. The measured grain size distribution is consistent with an improved atmospheric gravity current sedimentation model that takes into account the finite duration of an eruption. In this model, the eruption time and particle fall velocity are the critical parameters for assessing the ash component depositing while the cloud advances versus the ash component depositing once the eruption terminates. With the historical data on eruption duration (maximum 24 h) and volumetric flow rate of the umbrella cloud (~1. 5-2. 5 × 1011 m3/s) as input to the improved model, and assuming a combination of 3 h Plinian phase and 21 h co-ignimbrite phase, it reduces the mean deviation of the predicted versus observed grain size distribution by more than half (~9. 4 % to ~3. 7 %) if both ash components are considered. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Estimating building vulnerability to volcanic ash fall for insurance and other purposes

Volcanic ash falls are one of the most widespread and frequent volcanic hazards, and are produced by all explosive volcanic eruptions. Ash falls are arguably the most disruptive volcanic hazard because of their ability to affect large areas and to impact a wide range of assets, even at relatively small thicknesses. From an insurance perspective, the most valuable insured assets are buildings. Ash fall vulnerability curves or functions, which relate the magnitude of ash fall to likely damage, are the most developed for buildings, although there have been important recent advances for agriculture and infrastructure. In this paper, we focus on existing vulnerability functions developed for volcanic ash fall impact on buildings, and apply them to a hypothetical building portfolio impacted by a modern-day Tambora 1815 eruption scenario. We compare and contrast the different developed functions and discuss some of the issues surrounding estimation of potential building damage following a volcanic eruption. We found substantial variability in the different vulnerability estimates, which contribute to large uncertainties when estimating potential building damage and loss. Given the lack of detailed and published studies of building damage resulting from ash fall this is not surprising, although it also appears to be the case for other natural hazards for which there are far more empirical damage data. Notwithstanding the potential limitations of some empirical data in constraining vulnerability functions, efforts are required to improve our estimates of building damage under ash fall loading through the collection of damage data, experimental testing and perhaps theoretical failure analysis. For insurance purposes, the current building typologies provided for use with vulnerability functions are too detailed to map to the relatively limited information on building types that is typically available to insurers. Thus, efforts to provide vulnerability functions that can be used where only limited information is available regarding building types would also be valuable, both for insurers and for at-risk areas that have not been subject to detailed building vulnerability surveys.Published versio