Emulation of multivariate simulators using thin-plate splines with application to atmospheric dispersion

It is often desirable to build a statistical emulator of a complex computer simulator in order to perform analysis which would otherwise be computationally infeasible. We propose methodology to model multivariate output from a computer simulator taking into account output structure in the responses. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by applying it to a chemical and biological hazard prediction model. Predicting the hazard area which results from an accidental or deliberate chemical or biological release is imperative in civil and military planning and also in emergency response. The hazard area resulting from such a release is highly structured in space and we therefore propose the use of a thin-plate spline to capture the spatial structure and fit a Gaussian process emulator to the coefficients of the resultant basis functions. We compare and contrast four different techniques for emulating multivariate output: dimension-reduction using (i) a fully Bayesian approach with a principal component basis, (ii) a fully Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis, assuming that the basis coefficients are independent, and (iii) a “plug-in” Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis and a separable covariance structure; and (iv) a functional data modeling approach using a tensor-product (separable) Gaussian process. We develop methodology for the two thin-plate spline emulators and demonstrate that these emulators significantly outperform the principal component emulator. Further, the separable thin-plate spline emulator, which accounts for the dependence between basis coefficients, provides substantially more realistic quantification of uncertainty, and is also computationally more tractable, allowing fast emulation. For high resolution output data, it also offers substantial predictive and computational ad- vantages over the tensor-product Gaussian process emulator

Validity of two common asthma-specific quality of life questionnaires: Juniper mini asthma quality of life questionnaire and Sydney asthma quality of life questionnaire

Background This study explored the psychometric properties (internal consistency, construct validity, discriminative ability) of the Juniper Mini Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (Mini AQLQ-J) and the Sydney Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ-S). Methods One hundred fourty-six adults (18-45 years) with asthma requiring regular inhaled corticosteroids were recruited to a trial of written emotional disclosure. Correlational analyses were performed to understand the relationship of the two measures with each other, with symptoms, lung function, asthma control, asthma bother and generic quality of life. Median quality of life scores were compared according to gender, health care usage and levels of asthma severity. Results AQLQ-J and AQLQ-S total scores correlated strongly with each other (rho = -0.80) and moderately with the EuroQol Current Health Status Scale (AQLQ-J: rho = 0.35; AQLQ-S: rho = -0.40). Domain score correlations between AQLQ-J and AQLQ-S were mostly moderate (0.5 < rho < 0.8). Both QoL measures were significantly correlated with symptom score. Correlations with the symptom score asthma module (AQLQ-J: rho = -0.69; AQLQ-S: rho = 0.50) were stronger compared with the total symptom score and the symptom score rhinitis module (AQLQ-J: rho = -0.41; AQLQ-M: rho =0.31). Neither QoL measure was significantly correlated with FEV1 % predicted at the total or the domain level. Total scores of both measures were significantly correlated with subjective asthma control (AQLQ-J: rho = 0.68; AQLQ-S: rho = -0.61) and asthma bother (AQLQ-J: rho = -0.73; AQLQ-M: rho = 0.73). Conclusions This study provides further evidence for the validity of the AQLQ-J and the AQLQ-S in a British population of adult patients with asthma managed in primary care. Correlations with lung function parameters were weak or absent. Correlations with generic quality of life were moderate, those with asthma symptoms, asthma control and asthma bother were strong. Both measures are able to discriminate between levels of asthma severity

Tolerable versus actual soil erosion rates in Europe

Erosion is a major threat to soil resources in Europe, and may impair their ability to deliver a range of ecosystem goods and services. This is reflected by the European Commission's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, which recommends an indicator-based approach for monitoring soil erosion. Defined baseline and threshold values are essential for the evaluation of soil monitoring data. Therefore, accurate spatial data on both soil loss and soil genesis are required, especially in the light of predicted changes in climate patterns, notably frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of precipitation. Rates of soil loss are reported that have been measured, modelled or inferred for most types of soil erosion in a variety of landscapes, by studies across the spectrum of the Earth sciences. Natural rates of soil formation can be used as a basis for setting tolerable soil erosion rates, with soil formation consisting of mineral weathering as well as dust deposition. This paper reviews the concept of tolerable soil erosion and summarises current knowledge on rates of soil formation, which are then compared to rates of soil erosion by known erosion types, for assessment of soil erosion monitoring at the European scale

Transonic wind-tunnel tests of an F-8 airplane model equipped with 12 and 14-percent thick oblique wings

An experimental investigation was conducted in the Ames 14-foot transonic wind tunnel to study the aerodynamic performance and stability characteristics of a 0.087-scale model of an F-8 airplane fitted with an oblique wing. Two elliptical planform (axis ratio = 8:1) wings, each having a maximum thickness of 12 and 14 percent, were tested. Longitudinal stability data were obtained with no wing and with each of the two wings set at sweep angles of 0, 45, and 60 deg. Lateral directional stability data were obtained for the 12 percent wing only. Test Mach numbers ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 in the unit Reynolds number range from 11.2 to 13.1 million per meter. Angles of attack were between -6 and 22 deg at zero sideslip. Angles of sideslip were between -6 and +6 deg for two angles of attack, depending upon the wing configuration

A meta-analysis of variables that predict significant intracranial injury in minor head trauma.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have presented conflicting results regarding the predictive effect of various clinical symptoms, signs, and plain imaging for intracranial pathology in children with minor head injury. AIMS: To perform a meta-analysis of the literature in order to assess the significance of these factors and intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in the paediatric population. METHODS: The literature was searched using Medline, Embase, Experts, and the grey literature. Reference lists of major guidelines were crosschecked. Control or nested case-control studies of children with head injury who had skull radiography, recording of common symptoms and signs, and head computed tomography (CT) were selected. OUTCOME VARIABLE: CT presence or absence of ICH. RESULTS: Sixteen papers were identified as satisfying criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis, although not every paper contained data on every correlate. Available evidence gave pooled patient numbers from 1136 to 22 420. Skull fracture gave a relative risk ratio of 6.13 (95% CI 3.35 to 11.2), headache 1.02 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.69), vomiting 0.88 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.15), focal neurology 9.43 (2.89 to 30.8), seizures 2.82 (95% CI 0.89 to 9.00), LOC 2.23 (95% CI 1.20 to 4.16), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) <15 of 5.51 (95% CI 1.59 to 19.0). CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant correlation between intracranial haemorrhage and skull fracture, focal neurology, loss of consciousness, and GCS abnormality. Headache and vomiting were not found to be predictive and there was great variability in the predictive ability of seizures. More information is required about the current predictor variables so that more refined guidelines can be developed. Further research is currently underway by three large study groups

Foot and Mouth Epidemic Reduces Cases of Human Cryptosporidiosis in Scotland.

In Scotland, rates of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans peak during the spring, a peak that is coincident with the peak in rates of infection in farm animals (during lambing and calving time). Here we show that, during the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in 2001, there was a significant reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection in southern Scotland, where FMD was present, whereas, in the rest of Scotland, there was a reduction in cases that was not significant. We associate the reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection with the reduction in the number of young farm animals, together with restrictions on movement of both farm animals and humans, during the outbreak of FMD in 2001. We further show that, during 2002, there was recovery in the rate of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans throughout Scotland, particularly in the FMD-infected area, but that rates of infection remained lower, though not significantly, than pre-2001 levels

A Comparative Study of Knots of Star Formation in Interacting vs. Spiral Galaxies

Interacting galaxies are known to have higher global rates of star formation on average than normal galaxies, relative to their stellar masses. Using UV and IR photometry combined with new and published H-alpha images, we have compared the star formation rates of ~700 star forming complexes in 46 nearby interacting galaxy pairs with those of regions in 39 normal spiral galaxies. The interacting galaxies have proportionally more regions with high star formation rates than the spirals. The most extreme regions in the interacting systems lie at the intersections of spiral/tidal structures, where gas is expected to pile up and trigger star formation. Published Hubble Telescope images show unusually large and luminous star clusters in the highest luminosity regions. The star formation rates of the clumps correlate with measures of the dust attenuation, consistent with the idea that regions with more interstellar gas have more star formation. For the clumps with the highest star formation rates, the apparent dust attenuation is consistent with the Calzetti starburst dust attenuation law. This suggests that the high luminosity regions are dominated by a central group of young stars surrounded by a shell of clumpy interstellar gas. In contrast, the lower luminosity clumps are bright in the UV relative to H-alpha, suggesting either a high differential attenuation between the ionized gas and the stars, or a post-starburst population bright in the UV but faded in H-alpha. The fraction of the global light of the galaxies in the clumps is higher on average for the interacting galaxies than for the spirals. Thus the star forming regions in interacting galaxies are more luminous, dustier, or younger on average.Comment: Astronomical Journal, in pres