Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action

Effectiveness of anonymised information sharing and use in health service, police, and local government partnership for preventing violence related injury: experimental study and time series analysis

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of anonymised information sharing to prevent injury related to violence. Design: Experimental study and time series analysis of a prototype community partnership between the health service, police, and local government partners designed to prevent violence. Setting: Cardiff, Wales, and 14 comparison cities designated "most similar" by the Home Office in England and Wales. Intervention After a 33 month development period, anonymised data relevant to violence prevention (precise violence location, time, days, and weapons) from patients attending emergency departments in Cardiff and reporting injury from violence were shared over 51 months with police and local authority partners and used to target resources for violence prevention. Main outcome measures: Health service records of hospital admissions related to violence and police records of woundings and less serious assaults in Cardiff and other cities after adjustment for potential confounders. Results: Information sharing and use were associated with a substantial and significant reduction in hospital admissions related to violence. In the intervention city (Cardiff) rates fell from seven to five a month per 100 000 population compared with an increase from five to eight in comparison cities (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.69). Average rate of woundings recorded by the police changed from 54 to 82 a month per 100 000 population in Cardiff compared with an increase from 54 to 114 in comparison cities (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.68, 0.61 to 0.75). There was a significant increase in less serious assaults recorded by the police, from 15 to 20 a month per 100 000 population in Cardiff compared with a decrease from 42 to 33 in comparison cities (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.38, 1.13 to 1.70). Conclusion: An information sharing partnership between health services, police, and local government in Cardiff, Wales, altered policing and other strategies to prevent violence based on information collected from patients treated in emergency departments after injury sustained in violence. This intervention led to a significant reduction in violent injury and was associated with an increase in police recording of minor assaults in Cardiff compared with similar cities in England and Wales where this intervention was not implemented

Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering study of charge excitations in La2CuO4

We report a resonant inelastic x-ray scattering study of the dispersion relations of charge transfer excitations in insulating La$_2$CuO$_4$. These data reveal two peaks, both of which show two-dimensional characteristics. The lowest energy excitation has a gap energy of $\sim 2.2$ eV at the zone center, and a dispersion of $\sim 1$ eV. The spectral weight of this mode becomes dramatically smaller around ($\pi$, $\pi$). The second peak shows a smaller dispersion ($\sim 0.5$ eV) with a zone-center energy of $\sim 3.9$ eV. We argue that these are both highly dispersive exciton modes damped by the presence of the electron-hole continuum.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Longitudinal and transverse noise in a moving Vortex Lattice

We have studied the longitudinal and the transverse velocity fluctuations of a moving vortex lattice (VL) driven by a transport current. They exhibit both the same broad spectrum and the same order of magnitude. These two components are insensitive to the velocity and to a small bulk perturbation. This means that no bulk averaging over the disorder and no VL crystallization are observed. This is consistently explained referring to a previously proposed noisy flow of surface current whose elementary fluctuator is measured isotropic.Comment: accepted for publication in Phys Rev

Response to comment on "solid recovered fuel: Materials flow analysis and fuel property development during the mechanical processing of biodried waste"

Laner and Cencic1 comment on Velis et al. (2013)2 clarifying certain points on the use of the material flow analysis (MFA) software STAN3. We welcome the correspondence and the opportunity this exchange provides to discuss optimal approaches to using STAN. In keeping with Velis et al.2 these physically impossible, and otherwise insignificant, negative flows have enabled improvements to STAN. Here, we elaborate on the practicalities of using STAN in our research and on the correctness and validation of our results, notwithstanding the inclusion of negative flows. We explain the contribution of our approach to solid waste management and resource recovery

Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10 year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well

Highly charged ions in Penning traps, a new tool for resolving low lying isomeric states

The use of highly charged ions increases the precision and resolving power, in particular for short-lived species produced at on-line radio-isotope beam facilities, achievable with Penning trap mass spectrometers. This increase in resolving power provides a new and unique access to resolving low-lying long-lived ($T_{1/2} > 50$ ms) nuclear isomers. Recently, the $111.19(22)$ keV (determined from $\gamma$-ray spectroscopy) isomeric state in $^{78}$Rb has been resolved from the ground state, in a charge state of $q=8+$ with the TITAN Penning trap at the TRIUMF-ISAC facility. The excitation energy of the isomer was measured to be $108.7(6.4)$ keV above the ground state. The extracted masses for both the ground and isomeric states, and their difference, agree with the AME2003 and Nuclear Data Sheet values. This proof of principle measurement demonstrates the feasibility of using Penning trap mass spectrometers coupled to charge breeders to study nuclear isomers and opens a new route for isomer searches.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure