Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling

COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population’s age profile and the dominant variant. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Basque Country region of Spain, which has the fourth highest proportion of elderly individuals worldwide. Using epidemiological data on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, fatalities, and vaccination coverage, we calibrated four versions of an ordinary differential equations model with varying assumptions on the age structure and transmission function. Counterfactual no-vaccine scenarios were simulated by setting the vaccination rate to zero while all other parameters were held constant. The initial vaccination rollout is estimated to have prevented 46,000 to 75,000 hospitalizations, 6,000 to 11,000 ICU admissions, and 15,000 to 24,000 deaths, reducing these outcomes by 73% to 86%. The most significant impact occurred during the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the Delta variant's dominance and a vaccination rate exceeding 60%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination coverage had a more substantial effect on averted outcomes than vaccine efficacy. Overall, the vaccination campaign in the Basque Country significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes, aligning with global estimates and demonstrating robustness across different modeling approaches.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (MICINN) Ramon y Cajal grant RYC2021-031380-I EITB Marathon 2021 call, reference BIO21/COV/00

Proposal to inform European institutions regarding the regulation of conscientious objection to abortion.

The aim of this paper is to define a set of proposals to inform European institutions in the regulation of Conscientious Objection to abortion. The board of the European Society of Contraception and Reproductive Health Care (ESC) was informed on the elements that should in the opinion of the authors be included in a future regulation of Conscientious Objection to abortion in Europe. These elements are outlined in this paper and the debate about them could form the basis for recommendations to the international scientific community and the European institutions. As current measures governing the principle of conscientious objection result in negative consequences regarding women's access to sexual and reproductive health services, they should be changed. Healthcare services should adopt measures to guarantee that a woman's right to voluntary abortion is not limited by the practitioner's stance on the principle of conscientious objection. In the countries where conscientious objection is allowed, the regulation must clearly delineate the extent of the duties and the exemptions of professionals based on the principles of established social consensus. The recommendations included in this document specify measures on the rights of women, the rights and duties of the practitioner, the role of institutions and the role of professional associations

Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background: The objective of this study was to assess changes in social and clinical determinants of COVID-19 outcomes associated with the first year of COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the Basque population. Methods: A retrospective study was performed using the complete database of the Basque Health Service (n = 2,343,858). We analyzed data on age, sex, socioeconomic status, the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and COVID-19 infection by Cox regression models and Kaplan–Meier curves. Results: Women had a higher hazard ratio (HR) of infection (1.1) and a much lower rate of hospitalization (0.7). With older age, the risk of infection fell, but the risks of hospitalization and ICU admission increased. The higher the CCI, the higher the risks of infection and hospitalization. The risk of infection was higher in high-income individuals in all periods (HR = 1.2–1.4) while their risk of hospitalization was lower in the post-vaccination period (HR = 0.451). Conclusion: Despite the lifting of many control measures during the second half of 2021, restoring human mobility patterns, the situation could not be defined as syndemic, clinical determinants seeming to have more influence than social ones on COVID-19 outcomes, both before and after vaccination program implementation

The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study

Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy (VE) is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and impact. COVID-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization schedule. To assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes, we used an extended Susceptible - Hospitalized - Asymptomatic/mild - Recovered ($SHAR$) model. Vaccination models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types: vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission, and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and infection. VE was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine administration. We described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country, Spain. With a population in a mixed vaccination setting, our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started, from May to June 2021. Specifically in June, a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.BERC 2022-2025 Marie Curie No~792494 Severo Ochoa CEX2021-001142-S/ MICIN / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033 EITB Marathon 2021 call BIO21/COV/00

Characterization of unique B-cell populations in the circulation of people living with HIV prior to non-Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosis

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at higher risk of developing lymphoma. In this study, we performed cytometry by time-of-flight (CyTOF) on peripheral blood mononuclear cells of cART-naïve HIV+ individuals and cART-naïve HIV+ individuals prior to AIDS-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (pre-NHL) diagnosis. Participants were enrolled in the Los Angeles site of the MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study (MWCCS). Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and unsupervised clustering analysis were performed to identify differences in the expression of B-cell activation markers and/or oncogenic markers associated with lymphomagenesis. CD10+CD27- B cells, CD20+CD27- B cells, and B-cell populations with aberrant features (CD20+CD27+CXCR4+CD71+ B cells and CD20+CXCR4+cMYC+ B cells) were significantly elevated in HIV+ cART-naïve compared to HIV-negative samples. CD20+CD27+CD24+CXCR4+CXCR5+ B cells, CD20+CD27+CD10+CD24+CXCR4+cMYC+ B cells, and a cluster of CD20+CXCR4hiCD27-CD24+CXCR5+CD40+CD4+AICDA+ B cells were significantly elevated in HIV+ pre-NHL (cART-naïve) compared to HIV+ cART-naïve samples. A potentially clonal cluster of CD20+CXCR4+CXCR5+cMYC+AICDA+ B cells and a cluster of germinal center B-cell-like cells (CD19-CD20+CXCR4+Bcl-6+PD-L1+cMYC+) were also found in the circulation of HIV+ pre-NHL (cART-naïve) samples. Moreover, significantly elevated clusters of CD19+CD24hiCD38hi cMYC+ AICDA+ B regulatory cells were identified in HIV+ pre-NHL (cART-naïve) compared to HIV+ cART-naïve samples. The present study identifies unique B-cell subsets in PLWH with potential pre-malignant features that may contribute to the development of pre-tumor B cells in PLWH and that may play a role in lymphomagenesis

Longitudinal Evaluation of Antibody Persistence in Mother-Infant Dyads After Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in Pregnancy

BackgroundThere are limited data on how coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity, timing of infection, and subsequent vaccination impact transplacental transfer and persistence of maternal and infant antibodies.MethodsIn a longitudinal cohort of pregnant women with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, maternal/infant sera were collected at enrollment, delivery/birth, and 6 months. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgM, and IgA were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.ResultsTwo-hundred fifty-six pregnant women and 135 infants were enrolled; 148 maternal and 122 neonatal specimens were collected at delivery/birth; 45 maternal and 48 infant specimens were collected at 6 months. Sixty-eight percent of women produced all anti-SARS-CoV-2 isotypes at delivery (IgG, IgM, IgA); 96% had at least 1 isotype. Symptomatic disease and vaccination before delivery were associated with higher maternal IgG at labor and delivery. Detectable IgG in infants dropped from 78% at birth to 52% at 6 months. In the multivariate analysis evaluating factors associated with detectable IgG in infants at delivery, significant predictors were 3rd trimester infection (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0), mild/moderate disease (OR = 4.8), severe/critical disease (OR = 6.3), and maternal vaccination before delivery (OR = 18.8). No factors were significant in the multivariate analysis at 6 months postpartum.ConclusionsVaccination in pregnancy post-COVID-19 recovery is a strategy for boosting antibodies in mother-infant dyads