Application of snowcovered area to runoff forecasting in selected basins of the Sierra Nevada, California

The author has identified the following significant results. Direct overlay onto 1:1,000,000 prints takes about one third the time of 1:500,000 zone transfer scope analysis using transparencies, but the consistency of the transparencies reduce the time for data analysis. LANDSAT data received on transparencies is better and more easily interpreted than the near real-time data from Quick Look, or imagery from other sources such as NOAA. The greatest potential for water supply forecasting is probably in improving forecast accuracy and in expanding forecast services during the period of snowmelt. Problems of transient snow line and uncertainties in future weather are the main reasons that snow cover area appears to offer little in water supply forecast accuracy improvement during the peroid snowpack accumulation

Application of satellite imagery to hydrologic modeling snowmelt runoff in the southern Sierra Nevada

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Self-reported pain severity is associated with a history of coronary heart disease

This study was funded by Arthritis Research UK (grant number: 17292).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Historical climatology in Africa: A state of the art

Collections of written materials from the 16th century onwards have been used to explore the historical climatology of Africa. Studies include decadal- to seasonal-scale reconstructions of past rainfall and temperature, and analyses of societal responses to historical extreme events

The use of snowcovered area in runoff forecasts

Long-term snowcovered area data from aircraft and satellite observations have proven useful in reducing seasonal runoff forecast error on the Kern river watershed. Similar use of snowcovered area on the Kings river watershed produced results that were about equivalent to methods based solely on conventional data. Snowcovered area will be most effective in reducing forecast procedural error on watersheds with: (1) a substantial amount of area within a limited elevation range; (2) an erratic precipitation and/or snowpack accumulation pattern not strongly related to elevation; and (3) poor coverage by precipitation stations or snow courses restricting adequate indexing of water supply conditions. When satellite data acquisition and delivery problems are resolved, the derived snowcover information should provide a means for enhancing operational streamflow forecasts for areas that depend primarily on snowmelt for their water supply

Using variograms to detect and attribute hydrological change

There have been many published studies aiming to identify temporal changes in river flow time series, most of which use monotonic trend tests such as the Mann–Kendall test. Although robust to both the distribution of the data and incomplete records, these tests have important limitations and provide no information as to whether a change in variability mirrors a change in magnitude. This study develops a new method for detecting periods of change in a river flow time series, using temporally shifting variograms (TSVs) based on applying variograms to moving windows in a time series and comparing these to the long-term average variogram, which characterises the temporal dependence structure in the river flow time series. Variogram properties in each moving window can also be related to potential meteorological drivers. The method is applied to 91 UK catchments which were chosen to have minimal anthropogenic influences and good quality data between 1980 and 2012 inclusive. Each of the four variogram parameters (range, sill and two measures of semi-variance) characterise different aspects of the river flow regime, and have a different relationship with the precipitation characteristics. Three variogram parameters (the sill and the two measures of semi-variance) are related to variability (either day-to-day or over the time series) and have the largest correlations with indicators describing the magnitude and variability of precipitation. The fourth (the range) is dependent on the relationship between the river flow on successive days and is most correlated with the length of wet and dry periods. Two prominent periods of change were identified: 1995–2001 and 2004–2012. The first period of change is attributed to an increase in the magnitude of rainfall whilst the second period is attributed to an increase in variability of the rainfall. The study demonstrates that variograms have considerable potential for application in the detection and attribution of temporal variability and change in hydrological systems

Five year prognosis in patients with angina identified in primary care : incident cohort study

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

What a difference a year makes:comparing relationships between stressful life events, mood and life satisfaction among older adults, and their working-age counterparts

Objectives: Stressful life events (SLEs) have been linked to depression, anxiety, and reduced life satisfaction. The inoculation hypothesis of aging suggests older adults may be less vulnerable to poor psychological outcomes following SLEs than working-age adults. The current study compared relationships between SLEs, mood and life satisfaction among older adults (65+), and adults aged 50–64, and investigated whether group identification and loneliness moderate these relationships. Method: A community-based sample of 121 Scottish participants responded to measures of SLEs (modified Social Readjustment Rating Scale), symptoms of depression and anxiety (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), life satisfaction (Life Satisfaction Index A), group identification (Group Identification Scale), and loneliness (UCLA Loneliness Scale). Results: In the 50–64 age group, the number of SLEs was significantly associated with greater symptoms of depression and anxiety, and reduced life satisfaction. Group identification and loneliness did not moderate these relationships. There were no significant relationships in the older adult group. Conclusion: The finding of relationships in working-age, but not older adults, supports the inoculation hypothesis of aging. Further research to better understand changes across the lifespan, and inter-relationships with related variables, would be valuable from both theoretical and clinical perspectives

Patterns of symptoms possibly indicative of cancer and associated help-seeking behaviour in a large sample of United Kingdom residents - the USEFUL study

Background.Cancer awareness campaigns aim to increase awareness of the potential seriousness of signs and symptoms of cancer, and encourage their timely presentation to healthcare services. Enhanced understanding of the prevalence of symptoms possibly indicative of cancer in different population subgroups, and associated general practitioner (GP) help-seeking behaviour, will help to target cancer awareness campaigns more effectively.Aim.To determine: i) the prevalence of 21 symptoms possibly indicative of breast, colorectal, lung or upper gastrointestinal cancer in the United Kingdom (UK), including six ‘red flag’ symptoms; ii) whether the prevalence varies among population subgroups; iii) the proportion of symptoms self-reported as presented to GPs; iv) whether GP help-seeking behaviour varies within population subgroups.Methods.Self-completed questionnaire about experience of, and response to, 25 symptoms (including 21 possibly indicative of the four cancers of interest) in the previous month and year; sent to 50,000 adults aged 50 years or more and registered with 21 general practices in Staffordshire, England or across Scotland. Results.Completed questionnaires were received from 16,778 respondents (corrected response rate 34.2%). Almost half (45.8%) of respondents had experienced at least one symptom possibly indicative of cancer in the last month, and 58.5% in the last year. The prevalence of individual symptoms varied widely (e.g. in the last year between near zero% (vomiting up blood) and 15.0% (tired all the time). Red flag symptoms were uncommon. Female gender, inability to work because of illness, smoking, a history of a specified medical diagnosis, low social support and lower household income were consistently associated with experiencing at least one symptom possibly indicative of cancer in both the last month and year. The proportion of people who had contacted their GP about a symptom experienced in the last month varied between 8.1% (persistent cough) and 39.9% (unexplained weight loss); in the last year between 32.8% (hoarseness) and 85.4% (lump in breast). Nearly half of respondents experiencing at least one red flag symptom in the last year did not contact their GP about it. Females, those aged 80+ years, those unable to work because of illness, ex-smokers and those previously diagnosed with a specified condition were more likely to report a symptom possibly indicative of cancer to their GP; and those on high household income less likely.Conclusion.Symptoms possibly indicative of cancer are common among adults aged 50+ years in the UK, although they are not evenly distributed. Help-seeking responses to different symptoms also vary. Our results suggest important opportunities to provide more nuanced messaging and targeting of symptom-based cancer awareness campaigns

Pupillometry, a bioengineering overview

The pupillary control system is examined using a microprocessor based integrative pupillometer. The real time software functions of the microprocessor include: data collection, stimulus generation and area to diameter conversion. Results of an analysis of linear and nonlinear phenomena are presented