Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings

A Culture of Hostility and Crime Motivated by Bias. A Cross-National Multilevel Analysis of Structural Influences

Piatkowska SJ, Hövermann A. A Culture of Hostility and Crime Motivated by Bias. A Cross-National Multilevel Analysis of Structural Influences. International Criminal Justice Review. 2018;29(2):141-167

IMMIGRATION INFLUX AS A TRIGGER FOR RIGHT-WING CRIME: A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF HATE CRIMES IN GERMANY IN THE LIGHT OF THE 'REFUGEE CRISIS'

Piatkowska SJ, Hövermann A, Yang T-C. IMMIGRATION INFLUX AS A TRIGGER FOR RIGHT-WING CRIME: A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF HATE CRIMES IN GERMANY IN THE LIGHT OF THE 'REFUGEE CRISIS'. BRITISH JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGY. 2020;60(3):620-641.This study examines the conditions under which increased immigration rates serve as a catalyst for right-wing politically motivated crime across 16 German regions. The main objective is to focus on regional immigration rates as a potential trigger for threat perceptions by not only testing their principal effects but also by considering their interactions with structural environments. The analyses are grounded in a quasi-experimental setting because Germany recently witnessed an increase in immigration, publicly referred to as the 'refugee crisis'. The results reveal differences in the comparable models, insofar as high regional immigration rates are particularly associated with hate crimes during times of high immigration influx, illustrating how a signal event such as the 'refugee crisis' might trigger amplified threat perceptions

Black Out-group Marriages and Hate Crime Rates. A Cross-sectional Analysis of US Metropolitan Areas

Piatkowska SJ, Messner SF, Hövermann A. Black Out-group Marriages and Hate Crime Rates. A Cross-sectional Analysis of US Metropolitan Areas. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency . 2020;57(1):105-135.Objectives: This study introduces an indicator of racial out-group marriage to the research on hate crime. Drawing upon a variant of group threat theory, we hypothesize that Black out-group marriage with Whites will be positively related to anti-Black hate crime rates insofar as such marriages are perceived as transgressions of cultural boundaries. Informed by Allport's contact theory, we hypothesize that Black out-group marriage with Whites will be negatively related to anti-Black hate crime rates insofar as such marriages indicate intercultural accommodation. Methods: Using data for a sample of U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas circa 2010, we assess our hypotheses with two operationalizations of levels of hate crime-incidence rates and victimization rates. Results: Our results reveal that levels of Black out-group marriages with Whites are positively related to the Black hate crime victimization rate but not related to the incidence rate. Conclusions: Our analyses suggest that any salutary effect of intercultural accommodation associated with interracial marriage is overwhelmed by the influence of the perceived cultural threat and intensification of animus for the "at-risk" population for perpetrating anti-Black hate crimes