Empirical comparison of discrete choice experiment and best-worst scaling to estimate stakeholders' risk tolerance for hip replacement surgery

Objectives Empirical comparison of two preference elicitation methods, discrete choice experiment (DCE) and profile case best-worst scaling (BWS), regarding the estimation of the risk tolerance for hip replacement surgery (total hip arthroplasty and total hip resurfacing arthroplasty). Methods An online survey was constructed, following international guidelines, and consisted of socio-demographic questions and two randomised sections with 12 DCE and 8 BWS questions. The survey was sent to a general population who can be faced with choosing between THA and TRA (males between 45-65 years old) in the US. After an intensive literature search, the following attributes were selected: probability of a first and a second revision in seven years, pain relief, ability to perform moderate daily activities, and hospital stay. In addition, survey respondents rated the difficulty of each method and the time to complete each section was monitored. BWS and DCE data was analysed using conditional logit analysis. The maximum acceptable risk (MAR) for a revision was estimated for four different hypothetical hip replacement scenarios. Results The final data set consisted of 429 respondents. The MARs estimated for four hypothetical hip replacement scenarios differed between both methods, ranging from 0% to 19% difference for a first revision. BWS questions took significantly more time (401 s.) than DCE (228 s.) questions. And respondents found BWS more difficult to complete. Conclusions Both methods to elicit stakeholder preferences produce different results. Yet, both seem to be consistent in predicting risk tolerance if the benefits are changed. However, DCE seems to be more sensitive for a change in benefits and risks while the MAR estimates obtained through BWS have considerably lower uncertainty than DC

Dominant male song performance reflects current immune state in a cooperatively breeding songbird.

Conspicuous displays are thought to have evolved as signals of individual "quality", though precisely what they encode remains a focus of debate. While high quality signals may be produced by high quality individuals due to "good genes" or favourable early-life conditions, whether current immune state also impacts signalling performance remains poorly understood, particularly in social species. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that male song performance is impaired by immune system activation in the cooperatively breeding white-browed sparrow weaver (Plocepasser mahali). We experimentally activated the immune system of free-living dominant males via subcutaneous injection of phytohemagglutinin (PHA) and contrasted its effects with those of a control (phosphate buffered saline) injection. PHA-challenged males showed significant reductions in both the duration and the rate of their song performance, relative to controls, and this could not be readily attributed to effects of the challenge on body mass, as no such effects were detected. Furthermore, male song performance prior to immune-challenge predicted the scale of the inflammatory response to the challenge. Our findings suggest that song performance characteristics are impacted by current immune state. This link between current state and signal performance might therefore contribute to enforcing the honesty of signal performance characteristics. Impacts of current state on signaling may be of particular importance in social species, where subordinates may benefit from an ability to identify and subsequently challenge same-sex dominants in a weakened state

Habitat fragmentation induces rapid divergence of migratory and isolated sticklebacks

The adaptive capacity of many organisms is seriously challenged by human-imposed environmental change, which currently happens at unprecedented rates and magnitudes. For migratory fish, habitat fragmentation is a major challenge that can compromise their survival and reproduction. Therefore, it is important to study if fish populations can adapt to such modifications of their habitat. Here, we study whether originally anadromous three-spined stickleback populations (Gasterosteus aculeatus; “migrants”) changed in behavior and morphology in response to human-induced isolation. We made use of a natural field-experiment, where the construction of pumping stations and sluices in the 1970s unintendedly created replicates of land-locked stickleback populations (“resident”) in the Netherlands. For two years, we systematically tested populations of residents and migrants for differences in morphology and behavioral traits (activity, aggressiveness, exploration, boldness, and shoaling) in lab-based assays. We detected differences between migrant and resident populations in virtually all phenotypic traits studied: compared with the ancestral migrants, residents were smaller in size, had fewer and smaller plates and were significantly more active, aggressive, exploratory and bolder, and shoaled less. Despite large ecological differences between 2018 and 2019, results were largely consistent across the two years. Our study shows that human-induced environmental change has led to the rapid and consistent morphological and behavioral divergence of stickleback populations in about 50 generations. Such changes may be adaptive but this remains to be tested

Fine-scale thermal adaptation in a green turtle nesting population

Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tCopyright © 2011 The Royal SocietyElectronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1098/rspb.2011.1238 or via http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org.The effect of climate warming on the reproductive success of ectothermic animals is currently a subject of major conservation concern. However, for many threatened species, we still know surprisingly little about the extent of naturally occurring adaptive variation in heat-tolerance. Here, we show that the thermal tolerances of green turtle (Chelonia mydas) embryos in a single, island-breeding population have diverged in response to the contrasting incubation temperatures of nesting beaches just a few kilometres apart. In natural nests and in a common-garden rearing experiment, the offspring of females nesting on a naturally hot (black sand) beach survived better and grew larger at hot incubation temperatures compared with the offspring of females nesting on a cooler (pale sand) beach nearby. These differences were owing to shallower thermal reaction norms in the hot beach population, rather than shifts in thermal optima, and could not be explained by egg-mediated maternal effects. Our results suggest that marine turtle nesting behaviour can drive adaptive differentiation at remarkably fine spatial scales, and have important implications for how we define conservation units for protection. In particular, previous studies may have underestimated the extent of adaptive structuring in marine turtle populations that may significantly affect their capacity to respond to environmental change.NERCThe Royal SocietyThe Darwin InitiativeEuropean Social FundOverseas Territories Environment Programm

Selection on personality in a songbird affects maternal hormone levels tuned to its effect on timing of reproduction

The increase or decrease in yolk androgens over the laying sequence of a clutch in birds may mitigate or enhance, respectively, the disadvantage of the last-hatched chicks, providing a potentially adaptive tool to adjust brood size to food conditions. This variation may involve a genetic component on which Darwinian selection can act. We found that two lines of a wild bird species selected for bold and shy personalities show, respectively, increased and decreased androgen concentrations over the laying sequence. The line showing the increase laid earlier in the season, when food conditions are normally sufficient to raise the whole brood. The line showing the decrease laid later, when food is normally scarce, which may facilitate brood reduction. The results indicate a correlated response in maternal hormone transfer to genetic selection on personality, which relates to ecological conditions

A Review and Classification of Approaches for Dealing with Uncertainty in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Healthcare Decisions

The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health eco-nomic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appro-priate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles wer