Working Paper Series The Effect of Proactive Adaptation on Green Investment "Credit Risk and Non-Standard Sources of Risk in Finance" The effect of proactive adaptation on green investment

Abstract Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future and despite the urgency of the situation global GHG emissions are still increasing. In this context, and since future climate changes appear now unavoidable to some extent, adaptation measures have recently gained a new political momentum as an important component of climate policies. Contrary to mitigation options, adaptation measures do not reduce emission levels but reduce their impacts. To assess the relationship and effects on the global economy of both mitigation and adaptation, we use in this paper an integrated assessment model (IAM) that includes both proactive adaptation strategies and access to "green" investments (clean technologies) for mitigation. We find that the relationship between adaptation and mitigation is complex and largely dependent on their respective attributes, with weakly effective adaptation acting as a late complement to mitigation efforts. As its effectiveness increases, adaptation becomes more and more a substitute for mitigation. Sensitivity analysis on the potential magnitude of damages also indicates that scientific efforts to better describe GHG impacts will have immediate and important consequences on the sequence of mitigation and adaptation strategies

The effect of proactive adaptation on green investment

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future anddespite the urgency of the situation global GHG emissions are still increasing. In this context,and since future climate changes appear now unavoidable to some extent, adaptation measureshave recently gained a new political momentum as an important component of climate policies.Contrary to mitigation options, adaptation measures do not reduce emission levels but reducetheir impacts. To assess the relationship and effects on the global economy of both mitigationand adaptation, we use in this paper an integrated assessment model (IAM) that includes bothproactive adaptation strategies and access to “green” investments (clean technologies) for mitigation.We find that the relationship between adaptation and mitigation is complex and largelydependent on their respective attributes, with weakly effective adaptation acting as a late complementto mitigation efforts. As its effectiveness increases, adaptation becomes more and morea substitute for mitigation. Sensitivity analysis on the potential magnitude of damages also indicatesthat scientific efforts to better describe GHG impacts will have immediate and importantconsequences on the sequence of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Public health medicine training in the European community : is there scope for harmonization?

Harmonization of training in public health medicine has received little attention in the European Community compared with clinical specialties. Although most countries have a formal training programme, programmes recognized at a European level exist only in France, Ireland and the United Kingdom. This paper describes the basis of mutual recognition at the European Community level and the programmes in each country. Although there are some important differences including duration of training, there are many similarities. Several existing programmes meet European Community standards or would do so with a little modification. If harmonization is to occur it is necessary for public health bodies to make representations to their appropriate national bodies, and for public health to develop a much closer relationship with the relevant specialist committees of the European Commission

A Novel 8-Predictors Signature to Predict Complicated Disease Course in Pediatric-onset Crohn’s Disease: A Population-based Study

International audienceBackground The identification of patients at high risk of a disabling disease course would be invaluable in guiding initial therapy in Crohn’s disease (CD). Our objective was to evaluate a combination of clinical, serological, and genetic factors to predict complicated disease course in pediatric-onset CD. Methods Data for pediatric-onset CD patients, diagnosed before 17 years of age between 1988 and 2004 and followed more than 5 years, were extracted from the population-based EPIMAD registry. The main outcome was defined by the occurrence of complicated behavior (stricturing or penetrating) and/or intestinal resection within the 5 years following diagnosis. Lasso logistic regression models were used to build a predictive model based on clinical data at diagnosis, serological data (ASCA, pANCA, anti-OmpC, anti-Cbir1, anti-Fla2, anti-Flax), and 369 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms. Results In total, 156 children with an inflammatory (B1) disease at diagnosis were included. Among them, 35% (n = 54) progressed to a complicated behavior or an intestinal resection within the 5 years following diagnosis. The best predictive model (PREDICT-EPIMAD) included the location at diagnosis, pANCA, and 6 single nucleotide polymorphisms. This model showed good discrimination and good calibration, with an area under the curve of 0.80 after correction for optimism bias (sensitivity, 79%, specificity, 74%, positive predictive value, 61%, negative predictive value, 87%). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the model. Conclusions A combination of clinical, serotypic, and genotypic variables can predict disease progression in this population-based pediatric-onset CD cohort. Independent validation is needed before it can be used in clinical practice