A Unified Growth Model for Independent Chile

This article analyzes long-term patterns of growth of the Chilean economy. Examining 200 years of data, it shows evidence in favor of using a neoclassical growth model to conduct the empirical analysis. It presents a formal analysis of structural breaks in the Chilean growth process, finding structural changes in 1929 and 1971/1981. A further analysis of the country’s economic history indicates that fiscal policy, external shocks and trade policy are plausible explanations for these breaks. When these variables are included in the empirical model, the hypothesis of no breaks during these 200 years cannot be rejected.Chile, structural breaks, growth, fiscal policies, external shocks

A multivariate semiparametric Bayesian spatial modeling framework for hurricane surface wind fields

Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of coastal areas. Numerical ocean models are essential for creating storm surge forecasts for coastal areas. These models are driven primarily by the surface wind forcings. Currently, the gridded wind fields used by ocean models are specified by deterministic formulas that are based on the central pressure and location of the storm center. While these equations incorporate important physical knowledge about the structure of hurricane surface wind fields, they cannot always capture the asymmetric and dynamic nature of a hurricane. A new Bayesian multivariate spatial statistical modeling framework is introduced combining data with physical knowledge about the wind fields to improve the estimation of the wind vectors. Many spatial models assume the data follow a Gaussian distribution. However, this may be overly-restrictive for wind fields data which often display erratic behavior, such as sudden changes in time or space. In this paper we develop a semiparametric multivariate spatial model for these data. Our model builds on the stick-breaking prior, which is frequently used in Bayesian modeling to capture uncertainty in the parametric form of an outcome. The stick-breaking prior is extended to the spatial setting by assigning each location a different, unknown distribution, and smoothing the distributions in space with a series of kernel functions. This semiparametric spatial model is shown to improve prediction compared to usual Bayesian Kriging methods for the wind field of Hurricane Ivan.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS108 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Are constant loop widths an artifact of the background and the spatial resolution?

We study the effect of the coronal background in the determination of the diameter of EUV loops, and we analyze the suitability of the procedure followed in a previous paper (L\'opez Fuentes, Klimchuk & D\'emoulin 2006) for characterizing their expansion properties. For the analysis we create different synthetic loops and we place them on real backgrounds from data obtained with the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (\textit{TRACE}). We apply to these loops the same procedure followed in our previous works, and we compare the results with real loop observations. We demonstrate that the procedure allows us to distinguish constant width loops from loops that expand appreciably with height, as predicted by simple force-free field models. This holds even for loops near the resolution limit. The procedure can easily determine when loops are below resolution limit and therefore not reliably measured. We find that small-scale variations in the measured loop width are likely due to imperfections in the background subtraction. The greatest errors occur in especially narrow loops and in places where the background is especially bright relative to the loop. We stress, however, that these effects do not impact the ability to measure large-scale variations. The result that observed loops do not expand systematically with height is robust.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Continuous Forest Fire Propagation in a Local Small World Network Model

This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland fire spread is simulated on a square lattice in which each cell represents an area of the land's surface. The interaction between burning and non-burning cells, in the present work induced by flame radiation, may be extended well beyond nearest neighbors. It depends on local conditions of topography and vegetation types. An approach based on a solid flame model is used to predict the radiative heat flux from the flame generated by the burning of each site towards its neighbors. The weighting procedure takes into account the self-degradation of the tree and the ignition processes of a combustible cell through time. The model is tested on a field presenting a range of slopes and with data collected from a real wildfire scenario. The critical behavior of the spreading process is investigated

Interpreting the time variable RM observed in the core region of the TeV blazar Mrk 421

In this work we interpret and discuss the time variable rotation measure (RM) found, for the first time over a 1-yr period, in the core region of a blazar. These results are based on a one-year, multi-frequency (15, 24, and 43 GHz) Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) monitoring of the TeV blazar Markarian 421 (Mrk 421). We investigate the Faraday screen properties and its location with respect to the jet emitting region. Given that the 43 GHz radio core flux density and the RM time evolution suggest a similar trend, we explore the possible connection between the RM and the accretion rate. Among the various scenarios that we explore, the jet sheath is the most promising candidate for being the main source of Faraday rotation. During the one-year observing period the RM trend shows two sign reversals, which may be qualitatively interpreted within the context of the magnetic tower models. We invoke the presence of two nested helical magnetic fields in the relativistic jet with opposite helicities, whose relative contribution produce the observed RM values. The inner helical field has the poloidal component ($B_{\rm p}$) oriented in the observer's direction and produces a positive RM, while the outer helical field, with $B_{\rm p}$ in the opposite direction, produces a negative RM. We assume that the external helical field dominates the contribution to the observed RM, while the internal helical field dominates when a jet perturbation arises during the second observing epoch. Being the intrinsic polarization angle parallel to the jet axis, a pitch angle of the helical magnetic field $\phi\gtrsim 70^\circ$ is required. Additional scenarios are also considered to explain the observed RM sign reversals.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures. Published on MNRA

An Efficiency Assessment of Refrigerated-Food-Products Trucking Carriers in the United States

Agribusiness,