Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Objectives This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. Methods The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. Results In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39–1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3–86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-S aharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. Conclusions Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.BPAQ acknowledges the institutional support of PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian Government; and the Judith Lumley Centre of La Trobe University. Till Winfried Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor Award, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Germany. Félix Carvalho acknowledges UID/ MULTI/04378/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. Eduarda Fernandes acknowledges UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. Mihajlo Jakovljevic acknowledges that the Serbian part of this GBD contribution was cofinanced through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. Yun Jin Kim was supported by the Office of Research and Innovation, Xiamen University Malaysia. Walter Mendoza is currently a program analyst for Population and Development at the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund UNFPA, an institution which does not necessarily endorse this study. MMolokhia was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. Abdallah M Samy received a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program (EFMP). SMSI is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition (IPAN), Deakin University. RT-­S was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. Paul Yip was supported by the Strategic Public Policy Research (SPPR) grant (HKU-12).publishedVersio

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health plannin

Evaluation of collaborative TB/HIV activities in a general hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ethiopia has had mechanisms for TB/HIV collaborative activities since 2002. However, no published account has defined the role of these collaborative efforts in strengthening linkages between HIV and TB management units at the point-of-care level. Our objective was to assess the extent of linkages between the two programs at the patient management level at Zewditu Memorial Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Between January and December 2008, the registers of 241 TB patients were reviewed to determine the HIV testing rate, the treatment charts of 238 randomly selected patients were reviewed for providers' compliance with evaluation criteria, and exit interviews were conducted with 309 TB/HIV co-infected clients to validate providers' compliance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From register review, it was determined that the HIV testing acceptance rate was 95%, and that 70% of patients received post-test counseling. A review of the patient chart revealed that of 51 patients with a complaint of cough, duration for cough was recorded in 35 (68.6%) cases and cough > 2 weeks was recorded in 25 (49.0%) cases. Seventy two percent (18 of 25) were linked for sputum microscopy. Linkage to cotrimoxazole prophylactic treatment was 81%, but only 47% of eligible patients were linked to isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT). Correct diagnosis was accomplished at a rate of 100% for smear positive pulmonary TB, 23% for smear negative pulmonary TB and 88% for extra pulmonary TB patients. Both chart review and exit interviews indicated that history of TB contact and cough > 2 weeks predicted TB disease.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The rates of HIV testing and linkage to cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy were high. Improvement is needed in the areas of recording patient information, screening HIV positives for TB, initiation of IPT, referral, linkages, and TB diagnostic capacity.</p

Predictors of early death in a cohort of Ethiopian patients treated with HAART

BACKGROUND: HAART has improved the survival of HIV infected patients. However, compared to patients in high-income countries, patients in resource-poor countries have higher mortality rates. Our objective was to identify independent risk factors for death in Ethiopian patients treated with HAART. METHODS: In a district hospital in Ethiopia, we treated adult HIV infected patients with HAART based on clinical and total lymphocyte count (TLC) criteria. We measured body weight and complete blood cell count at baseline, 4 weeks later, then repeated weight every month and complete blood cell count every 12 weeks. Time to death was the main outcome variable. We used the Kaplan Meier and Cox regression survival analyses to identify prognostic markers. Also, we calculated mortality rates for the different phases of the follow-up. RESULTS: Out of 162 recruited, 152 treatment-naïve patients contributed 144.1 person-years of observation (PYO). 86 (57%) of them were men and their median age was 32 years. 24 patients died, making the overall mortality rate 16.7 per 100 PYO. The highest death rate occurred in the first month of treatment. Compared to the first month, mortality declined by 9-fold after the 18(th )week of follow-up. Being in WHO clinical stage IV and having TLC<= 750/mcL were independent predictors of death. Haemoglobin (HGB) <= 10 g/dl and TLC<= 1200/mcL at baseline were not associated with increased mortality. Body mass index (BMI) <= 18.5 kg/m2 at baseline was associated with death in univariate analysis. Weight loss was seen in about a third of patients who survived up to the fourth week, and it was associated with increased death. Decline in TLC, HGB and BMI was associated with death in univariate analysis only. CONCLUSION: The high mortality rate seen in this cohort was associated with advanced disease stage and very low TLC at presentation. Patients should be identified and treated before they progress to advanced stages. The underlying causes for early death in patients presenting at late stages should be investigated

Assessment of utilization of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling as an intervention for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV and associated factors among pregnant women in Gondar town, North West Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Detection of maternal HIV infection early in pregnancy is critical for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV/AIDS. Most efforts have focused on VCT as the primary means of encouraging people to become aware of their HIV status. However, its uptake is low in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia. Provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling provides a critical opportunity to diagnose HIV infection, to begin chronic care, and to prevent mother to child transmission. However, little is known about its acceptance and associated factors among pregnant women in the country and particularly in the present study area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Health institution based cross-sectional quantitative study was conducted in Gondar town from July 22-August 18, 2010. A total of 400 pregnant women were involved in the study using stratified sampling technique and multiple logistic regression analysis was employed using SPSS version 16.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 400 pregnant women actively participated in this study and 330 (82.5%) of them accepted provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling to be tested for HIV and 70(17.5%) of them refused. Acceptance of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling was positively associated with greater number of antenatal care visits [Adj. OR (95%CI)=2.64(1.17, 5.95)], residing in the urban areas[Adj. OR (95%CI)=2.85(1.10, 7.41)], having comprehensive knowledge on HIV [Adj. OR (95%CI)=4.30(1.72, 10.73)], positive partners reaction for HIV positive result [Adj. OR (95%CI)=8.19(3.57, 18.80)] and having knowledge on prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV[Adj. OR (95%CI)=3.27(1.34, 7.94)], but negatively associated with increased maternal age and education level.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Utilization of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling during antenatal care was relatively high among pregnant women in Gondar town. Couple counseling and HIV testing should be strengthened to promote provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling among male partners and to reduce HIV related violence of women from their partner and access to and consistent use of antenatal care should be improved to increase the uptake of provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling service.</p

Acceptability of HIV counselling and testing among tuberculosis patients in south Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To benefit from available care and treatment options, patients should first be counselled and tested for HIV. Our aim was to assess the acceptability of HIV testing among tuberculosis patients under routine care conditions in south Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We interviewed all adult tuberculosis patients who were treated at Arba Minch Hospital in Ethiopia between January and August 2005. After recording socio-demographic information and tuberculosis treatment history, we referred those patients who showed initial willingness to a counsellor for HIV counselling and testing. Rapid test methods were used following a pretest counselling session. The results were disclosed during a post-test counselling session. We used the logistic regression method to assess factors associated with willingness and acceptability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>190 adult tuberculosis patients were treated at the hospital and all of them consented to take part in the study. Their median age was 30 years (range, 15–68) and 52% of them were males. 49 patients (26%) were previously tested including 29 (59%) HIV positive. Of 161 patients (excluding the 29 already positive), 118 (73%) were willing to be tested and 58% (68/118) of those willing accepted the test. The overall acceptability rate was 35% (56/161). Fourteen (20.6%) were HIV positive and women were more likely to be HIV infected (p = 0.029). Unemployment and self-perceived high risk of HIV infection were associated with initial willingness (OR [95%CI]:2.6 [1.3–5.5] vs. 5.0 [1.1–22.4], respectively). However, only being unemployed was associated with accepting the test (OR = 4.2; 95%CI = 1.9–9.3).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The low acceptability of HIV counselling and testing among tuberculosis patients poses a challenge to the scale-up of TB/HIV collaborative efforts. There is a need for alternative counselling and testing strategies.</p

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation