The interplay between voluntary vaccination and reduction of risky behavior: a general behavior-implicit SIR model for vaccine preventable infections

The onset in the last 15 years of behavioral epidemiology has opened many new avenues for epidemiological modelers. In this manuscript we first review two classes of behavioral epidemiology models for vaccine preventable diseases, namely behaviour-implicit SIR models with prevalence-dependent vaccination (at birth and among older individuals), and prevalence-dependent contact rate. Subsequently, we briefly propose a general framework of behavior–dependent nonlinear and linear Forces of Infection (FoI) valid for a vast family of infectious diseases, and including delays and ‘epidemic memory’ effects. Finally and mainly, we develop a new general behavioral SIR model. This model combines the two aforementioned types of behavioral phenomena, previously considered only separately, into a single unified model for behavioral responses. The resulting model allows to develop a general phenomenological theory of the effects of behavioral responses within SIR models for endemic infections. In particular, the model allows to complete the picture about the complicate interplay between different behavioral responses acting on different epidemiological parameters in triggering sustained oscillations of vaccine coverage, risky behavior, and infection prevalence

"…Más de satírico que de vísperas…". De invenciones e inversiones en los espectáculos de las bodas de Camacho

En las Bodas de Camacho del Quijote de 1615 encontramos otro de los tantos diálogos que la obra de Cervantes mantiene con la cultura simbólica de su época. Se trata en este caso de la puesta en escena de varios tipos diferentes de representaciones espectaculares. El presente trabajo estudia las diferencias que se ponen en escena en las manipulaciones contrapuestas del festejo organizado por los adláteres de Camacho y la actuación disruptiva de Basilio. Es posible vislumbrar en estas modulaciones distintas rasgos propios de la reflexión barroca sobre el espectáculo, la representación y el efectismo.Fil: D'onofrio, María Julia. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Filología y Literatura Hispánica "Dr. Amado Alonso"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Spatio-temporal Bounded Noises, and transitions induced by them in solutions of real Ginzburg-Landau model

In this work, we introduce two spatio-temporal colored bounded noises, based on the zero-dimensional Cai-Lin and Tsallis-Borland noises. We then study and characterize the dependence of the defined bounded noises on both a temporal correlation parameter $\tau$ and on a spatial coupling parameter $\lambda$. The boundedness of these noises has some consequences on their equilibrium distributions. Indeed in some cases varying $\lambda$ may induce a transition of the distribution of the noise from bimodality to unimodality. With the aim to study the role played by bounded noises on nonlinear dynamical systems, we investigate the behavior of the real Ginzburg-Landau time-varying model additively perturbed by such noises. The observed phase transitions phenomenology is quite different from the one observed when the perturbations are unbounded. In particular, we observed an inverse "order-to-disorder" transition, and a re-entrant transition, with dependence on the specific type of bounded noise.Comment: 12 (main text)+5 (supplementary) page

UGC 3995: A Close Pair of Spiral Galaxies

UGC 3995 is a close pair of spiral galaxies whose eastern component hosts a Seyfert 2 nucleus. We present a detailed analysis of this system using long slit spectroscopy and narrow (\ha + \nii) as well as broad band (B, R) imaging and an archive WFPC2 image. The component galaxies reveal surprisingly small signs of interaction considering their spatial proximity and almost identical recession velocities, as the bright filament is probably an optical illusion due to the superposition of the bar of the Seyfert galaxy and of the spiral arms of the companion. The broad band morphology, a B--R color map, and a continuum-subtracted \ha + \nii image demonstrate that the western component UGC 3995B is in front of the Seyfert-hosting component UGC 3995A, partly obscuring its western side. The small radial velocity difference leaves the relative motion of the two galaxies largely unconstrained. The observed lack of major tidal deformations, along with some morphological peculiarities, suggests that the galaxies are proximate in space but may have recently approached each other on the plane of the sky. The geometry of the system and the radial velocity curve at P. A. = 106 suggest that the encounter may be retrograde or, alternatively, prograde before perigalacticon. The partial overlap of the two galaxies allows us to estimate the optical thickness of the disk of component B. We derive an extinction = 0.18 visual magnitudes in the infra-arms parts of the foreground galaxy disk, and >= 1-1.5 visual magnitudes in correspondence of the spiral arms.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal (June 1999 issue

Globular Clusters in Dense Clusters of Galaxies

Deep imaging data from the Keck II telescope are employed to study the globular cluster (GC) populations in the cores of six rich Abell clusters. The sample includes A754, A1644, A2124, A2147, A2151, and A2152, and spans the redshift range z = 0.035-0.066. The clusters also range in morphology from spiral-rich, irregular systems to centrally concentrated cD clusters rich in early-type galaxies. Globular cluster specific frequencies S_N and luminosity function dispersions are measured for a total of 9 galaxies in six central fields. The measured values of S_N for the six brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) are all higher than typical values for giant ellipticals, in accord with the known S_N-density correlations. The three non-BCGs analyzed also have elevated values of S_N, confirming that central location is a primary factor. The number of GCs per unit mass for these fields are consistent with those found in an earlier sample, giving further evidence that GC number scales with mass and that the S_N variations are due to a deficit of halo light, i.e., S_N reflects mass-to-light ratio. The discussion builds on an earlier suggestion that the GCs (both metal rich and metal poor) around the central cluster galaxies were assembled at early times, and that star formation halted prematurely in the central galaxies at the epoch of cluster collapse. This is consistent with recent simulations of BCG/cluster formation. The subsequent addition of luminous material through cluster dynamical evolution can cause S_N to decrease, and we may be seeing the first evidence of this. Finally, the GC luminosity function measurements are used to constrain the relative distances of the three clusters that make up the Hercules supercluster.Comment: Uses emulateapj.sty (included); 17 pages with 9 included PostScript figures. Figures 1-6 are separate GIF images (so 15 figures total) available from http://astro.caltech.edu/~jpb/clusters -- the full PostScript version of the paper (20 pages; 2.2 Mb compressed) incorporating Figures 1-6 can also be grabbed from this URL. Accepted for publication in A

Empirical Models for Dark Matter Halos. III. The Kormendy relation and the log(rho_e)-log(R_e) relation

We have recently shown that the 3-parameter density-profile model from Prugniel & Simien provides a better fit to simulated, galaxy- and cluster-sized, dark matter halos than an NFW-like model with arbitrary inner profile slope gamma (Paper I). By construction, the parameters of the Prugniel-Simien model equate to those of the Sersic R^{1/n} function fitted to the projected distribution. Using the Prugniel-Simien model, we are therefore able to show that the location of simulated (10^{12} M_sun) galaxy-sized dark matter halos in the _e-log(R_e) diagram coincides with that of brightest cluster galaxies, i.e., the dark matter halos appear consistent with the Kormendy relation defined by luminous elliptical galaxies. These objects are also seen to define the new, and equally strong, relation log(rho_e) = 0.5 - 2.5log(R_e), in which rho_e is the internal density at r=R_e. Simulated (10^{14.5} M_sun) cluster-sized dark matter halos and the gas component of real galaxy clusters follow the relation log(rho_e) = 2.5[1 - log(R_e)]. Given the shapes of the various density profiles, we are able to conclude that while dwarf elliptical galaxies and galaxy clusters can have dark matter halos with effective radii of comparable size to the effective radii of their baryonic component, luminous elliptical galaxies can not. For increasingly large elliptical galaxies, with increasingly large profile shapes `n', to be dark matter dominated at large radii requires dark matter halos with increasingly large effective radii compared to the effective radii of their stellar component.Comment: AJ, in press. (Paper I can be found at astro-ph/0509417

Redshift-Distance Survey of Early-type Galaxies. I. Sample Selection, Properties and Completeness

This is the first in a series of papers describing the recently completed all-sky redshift-distance survey of nearby early-type galaxies (ENEAR) carried out for peculiar velocity analysis. The sample is divided into two parts and consists of 1607 elliptical and lenticular galaxies with cz < 7000 km/s and with blue magnitudes brighter than m_B=14.5 (ENEARm), and of galaxies in clusters (ENEARc). Galaxy distances based on the Dn-sigma and Fundamental Plane (FP) relations are now available for 1359 and 1107 ENEARm galaxies, respectively, with roughly 80% based on new data gathered by our group. The Dn-sigma and FP template distance relations are derived by combining 569 and 431 galaxies in 28 clusters, respectively, of which about 60% are based on our new measurements. The ENEARm redshift-distance survey extends the earlier work of the 7S and the recent Tully-Fisher surveys sampling a comparable volume. In subsequent papers of this series we intend to use the ENEAR sample by itself or in combination with the SFI Tully-Fisher survey to analyze the properties of the local peculiar velocity field and to test how sensitive the results are to different sampling and to the distance indicators. We also anticipate that the homogeneous database assembled will be used for a variety of other applications and serve as a benchmark for similar studies at high-redshift.Comment: 43 pages, 15 figures, submitted to the Astronomical Journa

A log-quadratic relation for predicting supermassive black hole masses from the host bulge Sersic index

We reinvestigate the correlation between black hole mass and bulge concentration. With an increased galaxy sample, updated estimates of galaxy distances, black hole masses, and Sersic indices `n' - a measure of concentration - we perform a least-squares regression analysis to obtain a relation suitable for the purpose of predicting black hole masses in other galaxies. In addition to the linear relation, log(M_bh) = 7.81(+/-0.08) + 2.69(+/-0.28)[log(n/3)] with epsilon_(intrin)=0.31 dex, we investigated the possibility of a higher order M_bh-n relation, finding the second order term in the best-fitting quadratic relation to be inconsistent with a value of zero at greater than the 99.99% confidence level. The optimal relation is given by log(M_bh) = 7.98(+/-0.09) + 3.70(+/-0.46)[log(n/3)] - 3.10(+/-0.84)[log(n/3)]^2, with epsilon_(intrin)=0.18 dex and a total absolute scatter of 0.31 dex. Extrapolating the quadratic relation, it predicts black holes with masses of ~10^3 M_sun in n=0.5 dwarf elliptical galaxies, compared to ~10^5 M_sun from the linear relation, and an upper bound on the largest black hole masses in the local universe, equal to 1.2^{+2.6}_{-0.4}x10^9 M_sun}. In addition, we show that the nuclear star clusters at the centers of low-luminosity elliptical galaxies follow an extrapolation of the same quadratic relation. Moreover, we speculate that the merger of two such nucleated galaxies, accompanied by the merger and runaway collision of their central star clusters, may result in the late-time formation of some supermassive black holes. Finally, we predict the existence of, and provide equations for, a relation between M_bh and the central surface brightness of the host bulge

Redshift-distance Survey of Early-type Galaxies: The D_n-sigma Relation

In this paper R-band photometric and velocity dispersion measurements for a sample of 452 elliptical and S0 galaxies in 28 clusters are used to construct a template D_n-sigma relation. This template relation is constructed by combining the data from the 28 clusters, under the assumption that galaxies in different clusters have similar properties. The photometric and spectroscopic data used consist of new as well as published measurements, converted to a common system, as presented in a accompanying paper. The resulting direct relation, corrected for incompleteness bias, is log{D_n} =1.203 log{sigma} + 1.406; the zero-point has been defined by requiring distant clusters to be at rest relative to the CMB. This zero-point is consistent with the value obtained by using the distance to Virgo as determined by the Cepheid period-luminosity relation. This new D_n-sigma relation leads to a peculiar velocity of -72 (\pm 189) km/s for the Coma cluster. The scatter in the distance relation corresponds to a distance error of about 20%, comparable to the values obtained for the Fundamental Plane relation. Correlations between the scatter and residuals of the D_n-sigma relation with other parameters that characterize the cluster and/or the galaxy stellar population are also analyzed. The direct and inverse relations presented here have been used in recent studies of the peculiar velocity field mapped by the ENEAR all-sky sample.Comment: 46 pages, 20 figures, and 7 tables. To appear in AJ, vol. 123, no. 5, May 200

The globular cluster system of NGC 1316. II - The extraordinary object SH2

SH2 has been described as an isolated HII-region, located about 6.5 arcmin south of the nucleus of NGC 1316 (Fornax A), a merger remnant in the the outskirts of the Fornax cluster of galaxies. We give a first, preliminary description of the stellar content and environment of this remarkable object. We used photometric data in the Washington system and HST photometry from the Hubble Legacy Archive for a morphological description and preliminary aperture photometry. Low-resolution spectroscopy provides radial velocities of the brightest star cluster in SH2 and a nearby intermediate-age cluster. SH2 is not a normal HII-region, ionized by very young stars. It contains a multitude of star clusters with ages of approximately 0.1 Gyr. A ring-like morphology is striking. SH2 seems to be connected to an intermediate-age massive globular cluster with a similar radial velocity, which itself is the main object of a group of fainter clusters. Metallicity estimates from emission lines remain ambiguous. The present data do not yet allow firm conclusions about the nature or origin of SH2. It might be a dwarf galaxy that has experienced a burst of extremely clustered star formation. We may witness how globular clusters are donated to a parent galaxy.Comment: 5 pages, to appear in A&A, format slightly different from the printed versio