Epistemic luck

In almost any domain of endeavour, successes can be attained through skill, but also by dumb luck. An archer’s wildest shots occasionally hit the target. Against enormous odds, some fair lottery tickets happen to win. The same goes in the case of purely cognitive or intellectual endeavours. As inquirers, we characteristically aim to believe truly rather than falsely, and to attain such standings as knowledge and understanding. Sometimes such aims are attained with commendable competence, but of course, not always. Epistemic luck is a species of luck which features in circumstances where a given cognitive success—in the broadest sense, some form of cognitive contact with reality—is attained in a manner that is (in some to-be-specified sense) interestingly lucky—viz., chancy, accidental or beyond our control. In the paradigmatic case, this involves the formation of a belief that is luckily true, and where the subject plausibly deserves little credit for having gotten things right. Although the literature on epistemic luck has focused predominantly on the relationship between luck and propositional knowledge—which is widely taken to (in some sense) exclude luck—epistemologists are increasingly exploring the compatibility of epistemic luck with other kinds of epistemic standings, such as knowledge-how and understanding

The Epistemology of Group Disagreement: An Introduction

This is an introduction to the volume The Epistemology of Group Disagreement (Routledge, forthcoming), (eds.) F. Broncano-Berrocal and J.A. Carter

Deliberation and Group Disagreement

Suppose an inquiring group wants to let a certain view stand as the group's view. But there’s a problem: the individuals in that group do not initially all agree with one another about what the correct view is. What should the group do, given that it wants to settle on a single answer, in the face of this kind of intragroup disagreement? Should the group members deliberate and exchange evidence and then take a vote? Or, given the well-known ways that evidence exchange can go wrong, e.g., by exacerbating pre-existing biases, compromising the independence of individual judgments, etc., should the group simply take a vote without deliberating at all? While this question has multiple dimensions to it—including ethical and political dimensions—we approach the question through an epistemological lens. In particular, we investigate to what extent it is epistemically advantageous and disadvantageous that groups whose members disagree over some issue use deliberation in comparison to voting as a way to reach collective agreements. Extant approaches in the literature to this ‘deliberation versus voting’ comparison typically assume there is some univocal answer as to which group strategy is best, epistemically. We think this assumption is mistaken. We approach the deliberation versus voting question from a pluralist perspective, in that we hold that a group’s collective endeavor to solve an internal dispute can be aimed at different, albeit not necessarily incompatible, epistemic goals, namely the goals of truth, evidence, understanding, and epistemic justice. Different answers to our guiding question, we show, correspond with different epistemic goals. We conclude by exploring several ways to mitigate the potential epistemic disadvantages of solving intragroup disagreement by means of deliberation in relation to each epistemic goal

Maternal Geohelminth Infections Are Associated with an Increased Susceptibility to Geohelminth Infection in Children: A Case-Control Study

Background: Children of mothers infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STH) may have an increased susceptibility to STH infection. Methods and Findings: We did a case-control study nested in a birth cohort in Ecuador. Data from 1,004 children aged 7 months to 3 years were analyzed. Cases were defined as children with Ascaris lumbricoides and/or Trichuris trichiura, controls without. Exposure was defined as maternal infection with A. lumbricoides and/or T. trichiura, detected during the third trimester of pregnancy. The analysis was restricted to households with a documented infection to control for infection risk. Children of mothers with STH infections had a greater risk of infection compared to children of uninfected mothers (adjusted OR 2.61, 95% CI: 1.88–3.63, p,0.001). This effect was particularly strong in children of mothers with both STH infections (adjusted OR: 5.91, 95% CI: 3.55–9.81, p,0.001). Newborns of infected mothers had greater levels of plasma IL-10 than those of uninfected mothers (p = 0.033), and there was evidence that cord blood IL-10 was increased among newborns who became infected later in childhood (p = 0.060). Conclusion: Our data suggest that maternal STH infections increase susceptibility to infection during early childhood, an effect that was associated with elevated IL-10 in cord plasma

Norovirus Infection and Disease in an Ecuadorian Birth Cohort: Association of Certain Norovirus Genotypes With Host FUT2 Secretor Status.

BACKGROUND: Although norovirus is the most common cause of gastroenteritis, there are few data on the community incidence of infection/disease or the patterns of acquired immunity or innate resistance to norovirus. METHODS: We followed a community-based birth cohort of 194 children in Ecuador with the aim to estimate (1) the incidence of norovirus gastroenteritis from birth to age 3 years, (2) the protective effect of norovirus infection against subsequent infection/disease, and (3) the association of infection and disease with FUT2 secretor status. RESULTS: Over the 3-year period, we detected a mean of 2.26 diarrheal episodes per child (range, 0-12 episodes). Norovirus was detected in 260 samples (18%) but was not found more frequently in diarrheal samples (79 of 438 [18%]), compared with diarrhea-free samples (181 of 1016 [18%]; P = .919). A total of 66% of children had at least 1 norovirus infection during the first 3 years of life, and 40% of children had 2 infections. Previous norovirus infections were not associated with the risk of subsequent infection. All genogroup II, genotype 4 (GII.4) infections were among secretor-positive children (P < .001), but higher rates of non-GII.4 infections were found in secretor-negative children (relative risk, 0.56; P = .029). CONCLUSIONS: GII.4 infections were uniquely detected in secretor-positive children, while non-GII.4 infections were more often found in secretor-negative children

Leptogenesis and μ−τ\mu-\tau symmetry

If an exact $\mu\leftrightarrow \tau$ symmetry is the explanation of the maximal atmospheric neutrino mixing angle, it has interesting implications for origin of matter via leptogenesis in models where small neutrino masses arise via the seesaw mechanism. For seesaw models with two right handed neutrinos $(N_\mu, N_\tau)$, lepton asymmetry vanishes in the exact $\mu\leftrightarrow \tau$ symmetric limit, even though there are nonvanishing Majorana phases in the neutrino mixing matrix. On the other hand, for three right handed neutrino models, lepton asymmetry nonzero and is given directly by the solar mass difference square. We also find an upper bound on the lightest neutrino mass.Comment: 5 pages; latex; no figures; some typos correcte

Unveiling Neutrino Mixing and Leptonic CP Violation

We review the present understanding of neutrino masses and mixings, discussing what are the unknowns in the three family oscillation scenario. Despite the anticipated success coming from the planned long baseline neutrino experiments in unraveling the leptonic mixing sector, there are two important unknowns which may remain obscure: the mixing angle $\theta_{13}$ and the CP-phase $\delta$. The measurement of these two parameters has led us to consider the combination of superbeams and neutrino factories as the key to unveil the neutrino oscillation picture.Comment: Invited brief review, 18 pages, 6 figure

Phenomenology of symmetry breaking from extra dimensions

Motivated by the electroweak hierarchy problem, we consider theories with two extra dimensions in which the four-dimensional scalar fields are components of gauge boson in full space. We explore the Nielsen-Olesen instability for SU(N) on a torus, in the presence of a magnetic background. A field theory approach is developed, computing explicitly the minimum of the complete effective potential, including tri-linear and quartic couplings and determining the symmetries of the stable vacua. We also develop appropriate gauge-fixing terms when both Kaluza-Klein and Landau levels are present and interacting, discussing the interplay between the possible six and four dimensional choices. The equivalence between coordinate dependent and constant Scherk-Schwarz boundary conditions -associated to either continuous or discrete Wilson lines- is analyzed.Comment: 39 pages and 8 eps figures. Few changes in section

Household Transmission of Rotavirus in a Community with Rotavirus Vaccination in Quininde, Ecuador

Background: We studied the transmission of rotavirus infection in households in peri-urban Ecuador in the vaccination era. Methods: Stool samples were collected from household contacts of child rotavirus cases, diarrhea controls and healthy controls following presentation of the index child to health facilities. Rotavirus infection status of contacts was determined by RT-qPCR. We examined factors associated with transmissibility (index-case characteristics) and susceptibility (householdcontact characteristics). Results: Amongst cases, diarrhea controls and healthy control household contacts, infection attack rates (iAR) were 55%, 8% and 2%, (n = 137, 130, 137) respectively. iARs were higher from index cases with vomiting, and amongst siblings. Disease ARs were higher when the index child was ,18 months and had vomiting, with household contact ,10 years and those sharing a room with the index case being more susceptible. We found no evidence of asymptomatic infections leading to disease transmission. Conclusion: Transmission rates of rotavirus are high in households with an infected child, while background infections are rare. We have identified factors associated with transmission (vomiting/young age of index case) and susceptibility (young age/sharing a room/being a sibling of the index case). Vaccination may lead to indirect benefits by averting episodes or reducing symptoms in vaccinees