Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background: Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods: Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results: Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0690-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Radial Velocity Studies of Close Binary Stars.XIII

Radial-velocity measurements and sine-curve fits to the orbital radial velocity variations are presented for ten close binary systems: EG Cep,V1191 Cyg, V1003 Her, BD+7_3142, V357 Peg, V407 Peg, V1123 Tau, V1128 Tau, HH UMa, and PY Vir. While most of the studied eclipsing systems are contact binaries, EG Cep is a detached or a semi-detached double-lined binary and V1003 Her is a close binary of an uncertain type seen at a very low inclination angle. We discovered two previously unknown triple systems, BD+7_3142 and PY Vir, both with late spectral-type (K2V) binaries. Of interest is the low-mass ratio (q = 0.106) close binary V1191 Cyg showing an extremely fast period increase; the system has a very short period for its spectral type and shows a W-type light curve, a feature rather unexpected for such a low mass-ratio system.Comment: Accepted by AJ. 19 pages including 5 figure

Spatial distribution and populations at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are highly prevalent in the Philippines. Mapping the prevalence and high-intensity of STH co-infections can help guide targeted intervention programmes to reduce morbidity, especially among vulnerable school-aged children. In this study, we aimed to predict the spatial distribution of the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura co-infection and infection intensity classes in the Philippines to identify populations most in need of interventions. METHODS: Data on STH infections from 29,919 individuals during the nationwide parasitological survey in 2005 to 2007 were included in the analysis. To geographically predict the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and infection intensity classes, Bayesian multinomial geostatistical models were built including age, sex, environmental variables and a geostatistical random effect. The number of individuals co-infected and belonging to each of the infection intensity classes in 2017 was forecast by combining our predictive prevalence maps with population density maps. RESULTS: Our models showed that school-aged children (5-19 years) are most at risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections and of moderate/high infection intensity compared to other age groups. We identified target provinces where the likelihood of STH-associated morbidity was highest: Luzon (Bulacan, Benguet, Cavite, Sorsogon, Metropolitan Manila, Pampanga and Rizal), the Visayas (Cebu, Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental), and in Mindanao (Agusan Del Norte, Davao Del Sur, Davao Oriental, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, Misamis Oriental, Sulu and Zamboanga Del Sur). Luzon had the highest estimated number of school-aged children with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura co-infections (estimated total 89,400), followed by the Visayas (38,300) and Mindanao (20,200). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided epidemiological evidence to highlight national priority areas for controlling co-infections and high intensity infections in the Philippines. Our maps could assist more geographically targeted interventions to reduce the risk of STH-associated morbidity in the Philippines

Common Genetic Variants Explain the Majority of the Correlation Between Height and Intelligence : The Generation Scotland Study

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Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People's Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.We acknowledge financial support by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (APP1009539) and the Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (30960339) for our studies on echinococcosis. DJG is an Australian Research Council Fellow (DECRA); DPM is a NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellow; ACAC is a NHMRC Career Development Fellow