Avoiding selection bias in gravitational wave astronomy

When searching for gravitational waves in the data from ground-based gravitational wave detectors it is common to use a detection threshold to reduce the number of background events which are unlikely to be the signals of interest. However, imposing such a threshold will also discard some real signals with low amplitude, which can potentially bias any inferences drawn from the population of detected signals. We show how this selection bias is naturally avoided by using the full information from the search, considering both the selected data and our ignorance of the data that are thrown away, and considering all relevant signal and noise models. This approach produces unbiased estimates of parameters even in the presence of false alarms and incomplete data. This can be seen as an extension of previous methods into the high false rate regime where we are able to show that the quality of parameter inference can be optimised by lowering thresholds and increasing the false alarm rate.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Seismic topographic scattering in the context of GW detector site selection

In this paper, we present a calculation of seismic scattering from irregular surface topography in the Born approximation. Based on US-wide topographic data, we investigate topographic scattering at specific sites to demonstrate its impact on Newtonian-noise estimation and subtraction for future gravitational-wave detectors. We find that topographic scattering at a comparatively flat site in Oregon would not pose any problems, whereas scattering at a second site in Montana leads to significant broadening of wave amplitudes in wavenumber space that would make Newtonian-noise subtraction very challenging. Therefore, it is shown that topographic scattering should be included as criterion in the site-selection process of future low-frequency gravitational-wave detectors.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure

Gravitational waves from spinning eccentric binaries

This paper is to introduce a new software called CBwaves which provides a fast and accurate computational tool to determine the gravitational waveforms yielded by generic spinning binaries of neutron stars and/or black holes on eccentric orbits. This is done within the post-Newtonian (PN) framework by integrating the equations of motion and the spin precession equations while the radiation field is determined by a simultaneous evaluation of the analytic waveforms. In applying CBwaves various physically interesting scenarios have been investigated. In particular, we have studied the appropriateness of the adiabatic approximation, and justified that the energy balance relation is indeed insensitive to the specific form of the applied radiation reaction term. By studying eccentric binary systems it is demonstrated that circular template banks are very ineffective in identifying binaries even if they possess tiny residual orbital eccentricity. In addition, by investigating the validity of the energy balance relation we show that, on contrary to the general expectations, the post-Newtonian approximation should not be applied once the post-Newtonian parameter gets beyond the critical value $\sim 0.08-0.1$. Finally, by studying the early phase of the gravitational waves emitted by strongly eccentric binary systems---which could be formed e.g. in various many-body interactions in the galactic halo---we have found that they possess very specific characteristics which may be used to identify these type of binary systems.Comment: 37 pages, 18 figures, submitted to Class. Quantum Gra

Orbit optimization for ASTROD-GW and its time delay interferometry with two arms using CGC ephemeris

ASTROD-GW (ASTROD [Astrodynamical Space Test of Relativity using Optical Devices] optimized for Gravitation Wave detection) is an optimization of ASTROD to focus on the goal of detection of gravitation waves. The detection sensitivity is shifted 52 times toward larger wavelength compared to that of LISA. The mission orbits of the 3 spacecraft forming a nearly equilateral triangular array are chosen to be near the Sun-Earth Lagrange points L3, L4 and L5. The 3 spacecraft range interferometrically with one another with arm length about 260 million kilometers. In order to attain the requisite sensitivity for ASTROD-GW, laser frequency noise must be suppressed below the secondary noises such as the optical path noise, acceleration noise etc. For suppressing laser frequency noise, we need to use time delay interferometry (TDI) to match the two different optical paths (times of travel). Since planets and other solar-system bodies perturb the orbits of ASTROD-GW spacecraft and affect the (TDI), we simulate the time delay numerically using CGC 2.7 ephemeris framework. To conform to the ASTROD-GW planning, we work out a set of 20-year optimized mission orbits of ASTROD-GW spacecraft starting at June 21, 2028, and calculate the residual optical path differences in the first and second generation TDI for one-detector case. In our optimized mission orbits for 20 years, changes of arm length are less than 0.0003 AU; the relative Doppler velocities are less than 3m/s. All the second generation TDI for one-detector case satisfies the ASTROD-GW requirement.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

An Open-Source Model for Projecting Small Area Demographic and Land-Use Change

The size, composition, and spatial distribution of both people and households have a substantial impact on the demand for and development and delivery of infrastructure required to support the population. Infrastructure encompasses a wide range of domains including energy, transport, and water, each of which has its own set of spatial catchments at differing scales. Demographic projections are required to assess potential future demand; however, official projections are usually not provided at a high level of spatial resolution required for infrastructure planning. Furthermore, generating bespoke demographic projections, often incorporating a range of scenarios of possible future demographic change is a specialist, resource intensive job and as such is often missing from infrastructure development projects. In this paper we make the case that such demographic projections should be at the heart of infrastructure planning and present a set of open-source models which can be used to undertake this demographic projection work, thus providing the tools needed to fill the identified gap. We make use of a case study for the United Kingdom to exemplify how a range of scenarios can be assessed using our model

A multi-scale urban integrated assessment framework for climate change studies: A flooding application

In order to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on urban areas, tools to assist decision-makers to understand future patterns of risk are required. This paper presents a modelling framework to allow the downscaling of national- and regional-scale population and employment projections to local scale land-use changes, providing scenarios of future socio-economic change. A coupled spatial interaction population model and cellular automata land development model produces future urbanisation maps based on planning policy scenarios. The framework is demonstrated on Greater London, UK, with a set of future population and land-use scenarios being tested against flood risk under climate change. The framework is developed in Python using open-source databases and is designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide

Improved source localization with LIGO India

A global network of advanced gravitational wave interferometric detectors is under construction. These detectors will offer an order of magnitude improvement in sensitivity over the initial detectors and will usher in the era of gravitational wave astronomy. In this paper, we evaluate the benefits of relocating one of the advanced LIGO detectors to India.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in proceedings of ICGC2011 conference. Localization figures update

DC-readout of a signal-recycled gravitational wave detector

All first-generation large-scale gravitational wave detectors are operated at the dark fringe and use a heterodyne readout employing radio frequency (RF) modulation-demodulation techniques. However, the experience in the currently running interferometers reveals several problems connected with a heterodyne readout, of which phase noise of the RF modulation is the most serious one. A homodyne detection scheme (DC-readout), using the highly stabilized and filtered carrier light as local oscillator for the readout, is considered to be a favourable alternative. Recently a DC-readout scheme was implemented on the GEO 600 detector. We describe the results of first measurements and give a comparison of the performance achieved with homodyne and heterodyne readout. The implications of the combined use of DC-readout and signal-recycling are considered.Comment: 11 page