MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Offline to Online Conversion

We consider the problem of converting offline estimators into an online predictor or estimator with small extra regret. Formally this is the problem of merging a collection of probability measures over strings of length 1,2,3,... into a single probability measure over infinite sequences. We describe various approaches and their pros and cons on various examples. As a side-result we give an elementary non-heuristic purely combinatoric derivation of Turing's famous estimator. Our main technical contribution is to determine the computational complexity of online estimators with good guarantees in general.Comment: 20 LaTeX page

Role of protein kinase C in inhibition of renin release caused by vasoconstrictors

It was the aim of the present study to get insight into some of the intracellular mechanisms by which the vasoconstrictor hormones angiotensin II (ANG II), arginine vasopressin (AVP), and norepinephrine (NE) inhibit renin release from renal juxtaglomerular cells. To this end a primary cell culture from rat renal cortex was established that consisted of 50% juxtaglomerular cells. The cultured juxtaglomerular cells contained prominent renin granules closely resembling those in the intact kidney and responded to a number of stimuli of renin release. By using these cultures, we found that ANG II (10(-7) M), AVP (10(-6) M), and NE (10(-5) M) inhibited renin release and increased the calcium permeability of the plasma membrane of the cultured cells. Both the effects on renin release and on calcium permeability could be diminished or even be abolished by the calcium channel blocker verapamil (Vp) (10(-5) M). ANG II, AVP, and NE led to an increased formation of diacylglycerol (DAG), a well-known stimulator of protein kinase C (PKC). Moreover, a direct stimulation of PKC by 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) (10(-8)-10(-6) M) also inhibited renin release and increased the calcium permeability of the cell membrane. Similar to ANG II, AVP, and NE, the effects of TPA on calcium permeability and renin release could be diminished by Vp. In conclusion, these results point toward a common mechanism by which vasoconstrictors inhibit renin release from renal juxtaglomerular cells: ANG II, AVP, and NE activate a phospholipase C, which generates DAG.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS

Revisiting the Core Ontology and Problem in Requirements Engineering

In their seminal paper in the ACM Transactions on Software Engineering and Methodology, Zave and Jackson established a core ontology for Requirements Engineering (RE) and used it to formulate the "requirements problem", thereby defining what it means to successfully complete RE. Given that stakeholders of the system-to-be communicate the information needed to perform RE, we show that Zave and Jackson's ontology is incomplete. It does not cover all types of basic concerns that the stakeholders communicate. These include beliefs, desires, intentions, and attitudes. In response, we propose a core ontology that covers these concerns and is grounded in sound conceptual foundations resting on a foundational ontology. The new core ontology for RE leads to a new formulation of the requirements problem that extends Zave and Jackson's formulation. We thereby establish new standards for what minimum information should be represented in RE languages and new criteria for determining whether RE has been successfully completed.Comment: Appears in the proceedings of the 16th IEEE International Requirements Engineering Conference, 2008 (RE'08). Best paper awar

Electron-phonon interaction in the solid form of the smallest fullerene C20_{20}

The electron-phonon coupling of a theoretically devised carbon phase made by assembling the smallest fullerenes C$_{20}$ is calculated from first principles. The structure consists of C$_{20}$ cages in an {\it fcc} lattice interlinked by two bridging carbon atoms in the interstitial tetrahedral sites ({\it fcc}-C$_{22}$). The crystal is insulating but can be made metallic by doping with interstitial alkali atoms. In the compound NaC$_{22}$ the calculated coupling constant $\lambda/N(0)$ is 0.28 eV, a value much larger than in C$_{60}$, as expected from the larger curvature of C$_{20}$. On the basis of the McMillan's formula, the calculated $\lambda$=1.12 and a $\mu^*$ assumed in the range 0.3-0.1 a superconducting T$_c$ in the range 15-55 K is predicted.Comment: 7 page

Meta-surrogate benchmarking for hyperparameter optimization

Despite the recent progress in hyperparameter optimization (HPO), available benchmarks that resemble real-world scenarios consist of a few and very large problem instances that are expensive to solve. This blocks researchers and practitioners not only from systematically running large-scale comparisons that are needed to draw statistically significant results but also from reproducing experiments that were conducted before. This work proposes a method to alleviate these issues by means of a meta-surrogate model for HPO tasks trained on off-line generated data. The model combines a probabilistic encoder with a multi-task model such that it can generate inexpensive and realistic tasks of the class of problems of interest. We demonstrate that benchmarking HPO methods on samples of the generative model allows us to draw more coherent and statistically significant conclusions that can be reached orders of magnitude faster than using the original tasks. We provide evidence of our findings for various HPO methods on a wide class of problems

A Ground-Based Albedo Upper Limit for HD 189733b from Polarimetry

We present 50 nights of polarimetric observations of HD 189733 in $B$ band using the POLISH2 aperture-integrated polarimeter at the Lick Observatory Shane 3-m telescope. This instrument, commissioned in 2011, is designed to search for Rayleigh scattering from short-period exoplanets due to the polarized nature of scattered light. Since these planets are spatially unresolvable from their host stars, the relative contribution of the planet-to-total system polarization is expected to vary with an amplitude of order 10 parts per million (ppm) over the course of the orbit. Non-zero and also variable at the 10 ppm level, the inherent polarization of the Lick 3-m telescope limits the accuracy of our measurements and currently inhibits conclusive detection of scattered light from this exoplanet. However, the amplitude of observed variability conservatively sets a $3 \sigma$ upper limit to the planet-induced polarization of the system of 58 ppm in $B$ band, which is consistent with a previous upper limit from the POLISH instrument at the Palomar Observatory 5-m telescope (Wiktorowicz 2009). A physically-motivated Rayleigh scattering model, which includes the depolarizing effects of multiple scattering, is used to conservatively set a $3 \sigma$ upper limit to the geometric albedo of HD 189733b of $A_g < 0.37$. This value is consistent with the value $A_g = 0.226 \pm 0.091$ derived from occultation observations with HST STIS (Evans et al. 2013), but it is inconsistent with the large $A_g = 0.61 \pm 0.12$ albedo reported by (Berdyugina et al. 2011).Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Ap

A Parameter Study of Classical Be Star Disk Models Constrained by Optical Interferometry

We have computed theoretical models of circumstellar disks for the classical Be stars $\kappa$ Dra, $\beta$ Psc, and $\upsilon$ Cyg. Models were constructed using a non-LTE radiative transfer code developed by \citet{sig07} which incorporates a number of improvements over previous treatments of the disk thermal structure, including a realistic chemical composition. Our models are constrained by direct comparison with long baseline optical interferometric observations of the H$\alpha$ emitting regions and by contemporaneous H$\alpha$ line profiles. Detailed comparisons of our predictions with H$\alpha$ interferometry and spectroscopy place very tight constraints on the density distributions for these circumstellar disks.Comment: 10 figures,28 pages, accepted by Ap