Misspecification-robust Sequential Neural Likelihood for Simulation-based Inference

Simulation-based inference techniques are indispensable for parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulable models with intractable likelihoods. While traditional statistical approaches like approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian synthetic likelihood have been studied under well-specified and misspecified settings, they often suffer from inefficiencies due to wasted model simulations. Neural approaches, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL) avoid this wastage by utilising all model simulations to train a neural surrogate for the likelihood function. However, the performance of SNL under model misspecification is unreliable and can result in overconfident posteriors centred around an inaccurate parameter estimate. In this paper, we propose a novel SNL method, which through the incorporation of additional adjustment parameters, is robust to model misspecification and capable of identifying features of the data that the model is not able to recover. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through several illustrative examples, where our method gives more accurate point estimates and uncertainty quantification than SNL

RAS signalling through PI3-Kinase controls cell migration via modulation of Reelin expression.

RAS signalling through phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3-Kinase) has been shown to have an essential role in tumour initiation and maintenance. RAS also regulates cell motility and tumour invasiveness, but the role of direct RAS binding to PI3-Kinase in this remains uncertain. Here, we provide evidence that disruption of RAS interaction with PI3-Kinase p110α decreases cell motility and prevents activation of Rac GTPase. Analysis of gene expression in cells lacking RAS interaction with p110α reveals increased levels of the extracellular matrix glycoprotein Reelin and activation of its downstream pathway resulting in upregulation of E-cadherin expression. Induction of the Reelin/E-cadherin axis is also observed in Kras mutant lung tumours that are regressing due to blockade of RAS interaction with PI3-Kinase. Furthermore, loss of Reelin correlates with decreased survival of lung and breast cancer patients. Reelin thus plays a role in restraining RAS and PI3-kinase promotion of cell motility and potentially tumour metastasis

Universal Statistics of the Scattering Coefficient of Chaotic Microwave Cavities

We consider the statistics of the scattering coefficient S of a chaotic microwave cavity coupled to a single port. We remove the non-universal effects of the coupling from the experimental S data using the radiation impedance obtained directly from the experiments. We thus obtain the normalized, complex scattering coefficient whose Probability Density Function (PDF) is predicted to be universal in that it depends only on the loss (quality factor) of the cavity. We compare experimental PDFs of the normalized scattering coefficients with those obtained from Random Matrix Theory (RMT), and find excellent agreement. The results apply to scattering measurements on any wave chaotic system.Comment: 10 pages, 8 Figures, Fig.7 in Color, Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Interactions among multiple stressors vary with exposure duration and biological response

Coastal ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors. Effective management actions would be better informed from generalized predictions of the individual, combined and interactive effects of multiple stressors; however, few generalities are shared across different meta-analyses. Using an experimental study, we present an approach for analysing regression-based designs with generalized additive models that allowed us to capture nonlinear effects of exposure duration and stressor intensity and access interactions among stressors. We tested the approach on a globally distributed marine diatom, using 72 h photosynthesis and growth assays to quantify the individual and combined effects of three common water quality stressors; photosystem II-inhibiting herbicide exposure, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) enrichment and reduced light (due to excess suspended sediment). Exposure to DIN and reduced light generally resulted in additivity, while exposure to diuron and reduced light resulted in additive, antagonistic or synergistic interactions, depending on the stressor intensity, exposure period and biological response. We thus find the context of experimental studies to be a primary driver of interactions. The experimental and modelling approaches used here bridge the gap between two-way designs and regression-based studies, which provides a way forward to identify generalities in multiple stressor interactions

From Sensor Readings to Predictions: On the Process of Developing Practical Soft Sensors.

Automatic data acquisition systems provide large amounts of streaming data generated by physical sensors. This data forms an input to computational models (soft sensors) routinely used for monitoring and control of industrial processes, traffic patterns, environment and natural hazards, and many more. The majority of these models assume that the data comes in a cleaned and pre-processed form, ready to be fed directly into a predictive model. In practice, to ensure appropriate data quality, most of the modelling efforts concentrate on preparing data from raw sensor readings to be used as model inputs. This study analyzes the process of data preparation for predictive models with streaming sensor data. We present the challenges of data preparation as a four-step process, identify the key challenges in each step, and provide recommendations for handling these issues. The discussion is focused on the approaches that are less commonly used, while, based on our experience, may contribute particularly well to solving practical soft sensor tasks. Our arguments are illustrated with a case study in the chemical production industry

The Ess/Type VII secretion system of Staphylococcus aureus shows unexpected genetic diversity

We thank the core sequencing and informatics teams at the Sanger Institute for their assistance and The Wellcome Trust for its support of the Sanger Institute Pathogen Genomics and Biology groups. SRH, JP and MTGH were supported by Wellcome Trust grant 098051. Bioinformatics and Computational Biology analyses were supported by the University of St Andrews Bioinformatics Unit that is funded by a Wellcome Trust ISSF award (grant 105621/Z/14/Z). SP is funded by the UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative, and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. CPH is supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 104241/z/14/z) TP is a Royal Society/Wolfson Merit Award Holder.BACKGROUND: Type VII protein secretion (T7SS) is a specialised system for excreting extracellular proteins across bacterial cell membranes and has been associated with virulence in Staphylococcus aureus. The genetic diversity of the ess locus, which encodes the T7SS, and the functions of proteins encoded within it are poorly understood. RESULTS: We used whole genome sequence data from 153 isolates representative of the diversity of the species to investigate the genetic variability of T7SS across S. aureus. The ess loci were found to comprise of four distinct modules based on gene content and relative conservation. Modules 1 and 4, comprising of the 5' and 3' modules of the ess locus, contained the most conserved clusters of genes across the species. Module 1 contained genes encoding the secreted protein EsxA, and the EsaAB and EssAB components of the T7SS machinery, and Module 4 contained two functionally uncharacterized conserved membrane proteins. Across the species four variants of Module 2 were identified containing the essC gene, each of which was associated with a specific group of downstream genes. The most diverse module of the ess locus was Module 3 comprising a highly variable arrangement of hypothetical proteins. RNA-Seq was performed on representatives of the four Module 2 variants and demonstrated strain-specific differences in the levels of transcription in the conserved Module 1 components and transcriptional linkage Module 2, and provided evidence of the expression of genes the variable regions of the ess loci. CONCLUSIONS: The ess locus of S. aureus exhibits modularity and organisational variation across the species and transcriptional variation. In silico analysis of ess loci encoded hypothetical proteins identified potential novel secreted substrates for the T7SS. The considerable variety in operon arrangement between otherwise closely related isolates provides strong evidence for recombination at this locus. Comparison of these recombination regions with each other, and with the genomes of other Staphylococcal species, failed to identify evidence of intra- and inter-species recombination, however the analysis identified a novel T7SS in another pathogenic staphylococci, Staphylococcus lugdunensis.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Ecotoxicity Thresholds for Ametryn, Diuron, Hexazinone and Simazine in Fresh and Marine Waters

Triazine and urea herbicides are two groups of photosystem II inhibiting herbicides frequently detected in surface, ground and marine waters. Yet, there are few water quality guidelines for herbicides. Ecotoxicity thresholds (ETs) for ametryn, hexazinone and simazine (triazine herbicides) and diuron (a urea herbicide) were calculated using the Australian and New Zealand method for deriving guideline values to protect fresh and marine ecosystems. Four ETs were derived for each chemical and ecosystem that should theoretically protect 99, 95, 90 and 80% of species (i.e. PC99, PC95, PC90 and PC80, respectively). For all four herbicides, the phototrophic species were significantly more sensitive than non-phototrophic species, and therefore, only the former data were used to calculate the ETs. Comparison of the ET values to measured concentrations in 2606 samples from 15 waterways that discharge to the Great Barrier Reef (2011–2015) found three exceedances of the simazine PC99, regular exceedances (up to 30%) of the PC99 in a limited number of rivers for ametryn and hexazinone and frequent (> 40%) exceedances of the PC99 and PC95 ETs in at least four waterways for diuron. There were no exceedances of the marine ETs in inshore reef areas. Further, ecotoxicity data are required for ametryn and hexazinone to fresh and marine phototrophic species, for simazine to marine phototrophic species, for tropical phototrophic species, repeated pulse exposures and long-term (2 to 12 months) exposures to environmentally relevant concentrations.Griffith Sciences, Griffith Institute for Drug DiscoveryNo Full Tex