Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well

Are Pluvial and Fluvial Floods on the Rise?

The aim of this paper is accurately framed in its title: Are pluvial and fluvial (river) floods on the rise? First, physical mechanisms that drive changes in hazard of pluvial and fluvial floods were examined. Then, a review of literature was undertaken on detection and an attribution of changes in hazard of pluvial and fluvial floods in observation records for past to present, as well as in model-based projections for the future. Various aspects, factors, processes and mechanisms, as well as various indices of interest were considered. There is quite a common, even if not scientifically justified, belief that, generally, floods are on the rise. However, in this paper, a balanced, knowledge-based assessment was undertaken, with discussion and interpretation, including caveats and indicating considerable departures from such a flat-rate statement. Observation records show that precipitation extremes have been intensifying on a global scale and for many regions. A formal detection and attribution analysis shows that intensification of rainfall events may have been influenced by greenhouse gas forcing of anthropogenic origin. Frequency and magnitude of pluvial floods is on the rise with increasing intense precipitation, while changes of river floods are more complex. High river discharges were found to increase in some regions, but to decrease in other regions, so that no general corollaries can be drawn at the global scale. Heavy rainfall events and pluvial floods are projected to become, almost ubiquitously, more frequent and more intense with progressing climate change, while frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods are likely to increase in many but not all regions

Severe Drought in the Spring of 2020 in Poland—More of the Same?

Two consecutive dry years, 2018 and 2019, a warm winter in 2019/20, and a very dry spring in 2020 led to the development of severe drought in Poland. In this paper, changes in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the interval from 1971 to the end of May 2020 are examined. The values of SPEI (based on 12, 24 and 30 month windows, i.e., SPEI 12, SPEI 24 and SPEI 30) were calculated with the help of the Penman–Monteith equation. Changes in soil moisture contents were also examined from January 2000 to May 2020, based on data from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, presenting increasing water shortages in a central belt of Poland. The study showed that the 2020 spring drought was among the most severe events in the analyzed period and presented decreasing trends of SPEI at most stations located in central Poland. This study also determined changes in soil moisture contents from January 2000 to May 2020 that indicate a decreasing tendency. Cumulative water shortages from year to year led to the development of severe drought in the spring of 2020, as reflected in very low SPEI values and low soil moisture

Climate Variability and Floods—A Global Review

There is a strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in time series of flood-related variables, such as intense precipitation, high river discharge, flood magnitude, and flood loss at a range of spatial scales. Perhaps part of this variability is random or chaotic, but it is quite natural to seek driving factors, in a statistical sense. It is likely that climate variability (atmosphere–ocean oscillation) track plays an important role in the interpretation of the variability of flood-related characteristics, globally and, even more so, in several regions. The aim of this review paper is to create an inventory of information on spatially and temporally organized links of various climate-variability drivers with variability of characteristics of water abundance reported in scientific literature for a range of scales, from global to local. The climate variability indices examined in this paper are: El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). A meta-analysis of results from many studies reported in scientific literature was carried out. The published results were collected and classified into categories after regions, climate variability modes, as well as flood-related variables: precipitation, river flow, and flood losses

The Emergence of Different Local Resilience Arrangements Regarding Extreme Weather Events in Small Municipalities—A Case Study from the Wielkopolska Region, Poland

Compared with other parts of the world, Poland is a relatively safe country in terms of natural disasters. Nevertheless, extreme weather events have become a significant threat in recent years, especially for local communities. These are exposed to intense rainfall, heavy wind, and heatwaves, as are larger towns. However, small municipalities have different economic, social, and human potential for undertaking preventive actions regarding meteorological extremes. In this paper, we are looking at what activities local communities from the Wielkopolska region in Poland undertake to cope with extreme weather events—specifically, heavy rainfall and heatwaves. We analyze the municipalities that are most and least exposed to extremes, based on meteorological data. These are further compared with local resilience measures in the event of extreme meteorological events through the risk management analysis of selected municipalities. The emergence of two approaches regarding extreme weather events has been observed. First, local arrangements consist of different resilience types. Both of the identified approaches are concentrated around rescue activities, representing recovery resilience. They differ in the second component of resilience: municipalities that have suffered more from weather extremes manifest more resistance resilience, whereas those communities where fewer meteorological events took place demonstrate more creativity-type resilience

Controlled Drainage Effectiveness in Reducing Nutrient Outflow in Light of Climate Changes

This modeling study focused on the hydrological and water quality effects of controlled drainage (CD) when operated using a subsurface drainage system in an agricultural field in the Wielkopolska region. The DRAINMOD hydrologic model was well calibrated and validated in an experimental field. This model was used in the performance of CD and free drainage (FD) combinations (108 and 27, respectively) in a near-future climate change scenario. The objective was to understand the potential of CD on the groundwater table (GWT), drainage outflow, surface runoff, and nitrogen and phosphorus reduction under projected climate conditions in Poland during the 21st century with shared socioeconomic pathway SSP370. The results indicated that the earliest start of CD practice is the most effective in increasing GWT. Compared to current climatic conditions, when applying CD on 1 March in the near future, with an initial GWT of 60 and 80 cm b.s.l. in wet years, drainage outflows will increase by 33% and 80% for the GFDL model, by 30% and 40% for the MPI model, and by 17% and 23% for the UKESM model. Comparing the surface runoff values obtained to current climate conditions, the MPI, GFDL, and UKESM models predict a significant increase in surface runoff in the near future, which is due to the predicted increase in precipitation. The annual NO3–N reduction was by 22, 19, and 15 kg per hectare for wet, normal, and dry years, respectively, in the near future. Among the climate scenarios, the UKESM model predicted higher NO3–N and PO4 leaching values compared to the MPI and GFDL models

Climate Variability Indices—A Guided Tour

The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive review and characterization of selected climate variability indices. While we discuss many major climate variability mechanisms, we focus on four principal modes of climate variability related to the dynamics of Earth’s oceans and their interactions with the atmosphere: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). All these oscillation modes are of broad interest and considerable relevance, also in climate impact studies related to teleconnections, i.e., relationships between climate variations at distant locations. We try to decipher temporal patterns present in time series of different oscillation modes in the ocean–atmosphere system using exploratory analysis of the raw data, their structure, and properties, as well as illustrating the quasi-periodic behavior via wavelet analysis. With this contribution, we hope to help researchers in identifying and selecting data sources and climate variability indices that match their needs

Challenges for Flood Risk Reduction in Poland’s Changing Climate

Floods are the main natural disaster in Poland, and the risk of both fluvial and pluvial floods is serious in the country. Pluvial floods are on the rise in the changing climate, particularly in increasingly sealed urbanized areas. In this paper, we examine the changes in flood risk in Poland, discussing the mechanisms, observations, projections and variability. Next, we discuss flood risk management in the country, including specific issues related to urban and rural areas and the synergies between flood and drought risk reduction measures. We identify and assess the weaknesses of the existing flood risk management plans in Poland for the first planning period 2016–2021 and for the second planning period 2022–2027. We find the level of implementation of plans in the former period to be very low. Many planned measures do not have much to do with flood risk reduction but are often linked to other objectives, such as inland navigation. The plans contain numerous small measures, which come across as inapt and economically ineffective solutions. We specify policy-relevant recommendations for necessary and urgent actions, which, if undertaken, could considerably reduce flood risk. We also sketch the way ahead for flood risk management in Poland within the timeframe of the implementation of plans for 2022–2027 and the next regular update of plans for 2028–2033

Variability of high rainfalls and related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

This contribution provides the basics of the climatology of the Polish Tatra Mountains in a nutshell, with particular reference to intense precipitation and its relation to atmospheric circulation. Variability of various precipitation characteristics, including selected indices of intense precipitation in Zakopane and at Kasprowy Wierch, is illustrated in this paper. None of the trends in these characteristics and indices calculated for the entire time interval exhibit a statistical significance, but short-time fluctuations are evident. The occurrence of intense precipitation in the Tatra Mountains is strongly related to three circulation types. These situations (Nc, NEc, Bc) are associated with cyclones following track Vb after van Bebber. In addition to changing frequencies of circulation, this study also reveals an increase in the frequency of the circulation types associated with extreme precipitation