Invasive species management in two-patch environments: Agricultural damage control in the raccoon (procyon lotor) problem, Hokkaido, Japan

We develop discrete-time models for analyzing the long run equilibrium outcomes on invasive species management in two-patch environments with migration. In particular, the focus is upon a situation where removal operations for invasive species are implemented only in one patch (controlled patch). The new features of the model are that (i) asymmetry in density dependent migration is considered, which may originate from impact of harvesting as well as heterogeneous habitat conditions, and (ii) the effect of density-dependent catchability is well-taken to account for the nature that required effort level to remove one individual may rise as the existing population decreases. The model is applied for agricultural damage control in the raccoon problem that has occurred in Hokkaido, Japan. Numerical illustration demonstrates that the long run equilibrium outcomes highly depend on the degree of asymmetry in migration as well as the sensitivity of catchability in response to a change in the population size of invasive species. Furthermore, we characterize the conditions under which the economically optimal effort levels are qualitatively affected by the above two factors and aiming at local extermination of invasive species in controlled patch is justified.catchability, meta-population, local extermination, removal effort, density dependent migration

A model for the infrared dust emission from forming galaxies

In the early epoch of galaxy evolution, dust is only supplied by supernovae (SNe). With the aid of a new physical model of dust production by SNe developed by Nozawa et al. (2003) (N03), we constructed a model of dust emission from forming galaxies on the basis of the theoretical framework of Takeuchi et al. (2003) (T03). N03 showed that the produced dust species depends strongly on the mixing within SNe. We treated both unmixed and mixed cases and calculated the infrared (IR) spectral energy distribution (SED) of forming galaxies for both cases. Our model SED is less luminous than the SED of T03 model by a factor of 2-3. The difference is due to our improved treatment of UV photon absorption cross section, as well as different grain size and species newly adopted in this work. The SED for the unmixed case is found to have an enhanced near to mid-IR (N-MIR) continuum radiation in its early phase of the evolution (age < 10^{7.25} yr) compared with that for the mixed case. The strong N--MIR continuum is due to the emission from Si grains, which only exist in the species of the unmixed dust production. We also calculated the IR extinction curves for forming galaxies. Then we calculated the SED of a local starbursting dwarf galaxy SBS 0335-052. Our present model SED naturally reproduced the strong N--MIR continuum and the lack of cold FIR emission of SBS 0335-052. We found that only the SED of unmixed case can reproduce the NIR continuum of this galaxy. We then made a prediction for the SED of another typical star-forming dwarf, I Zw 18. We also presented the evolution of the SED of LBGs. Finally, we discussed the possibility of observing forming galaxies at z > 5.Comment: MNRAS, in press. 18 pages, 15 figures. Abstract abridge

Mathematical Model for The Transmission of Lymphatic Filariasis and Its Applications

We have constructed a stochastic transmission model for lymphatic filariasis caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, and have analyzed its prevalence using computer simulations. In Pondicherry, India, where Wuchereria bancrofti has been spreading, the Vector Control Research Centre has carried out an integrated vector control strategy against malaria and filariasis for five years (1981~1985) with good results reported. Our study was aimed at evaluating the effect of vector control in the context of Pondicherry, and in particular the continuous effect for the post-control period. In this paper, we have used the LYMFASIM model proposed by Plaisier et al., the carrying capacity model by Rochet and the population dynamics model by us. In the LYMFASIM model and the carrying capacity model, we have modified the quantities of parameters in order to fit the models to the parasitological, entomological and epidemiological data in Pondicherry. We have combined the improved LYMFASIM model with the other models. Through simulations of our combinated model, we have compared the prevalence rate in the human population as well as the mean number of L3-larvae in the mosquito population, with and without vector control. As a result, the simulations show that the prevalence rate would be restrained for a long time even if only a small continuous effect of the vector control remains in the post-control period. However, the mean number of L3-larvae would recovered within a short time comparatively. This is because of the differences in life spans between human and mosquito as well as the incubation periods between the adult worm in the human host and L3-larvae in the mosquito vector

Infrared Spectral Energy Distribution Model for Extremely Young Galaxies

The small grain sizes produced by Type II supernova (SN II) models in young, metal-poor galaxies make the appearance of their infrared (IR) spectral energy distribution (SED) quite different from that of nearby, older galaxies. To study this effect, we have developed a model for the evolution of dust content and the IR SED of low-metallicity, extremely young galaxies based on Hirashita et al. (2002). We find that, even in the intense ultraviolet (UV) radiation field of very young galaxies, small silicate grains are subject to stochastic heating resulting in a broad temperature distribution and substantial MIR continuum emission. Larger carbonaceous grains are in thermal equilibrium at T \simeq 50 - 100K, and they also contribute to the MIR. We present the evolution of SEDs and IR extinction of very young, low-metallicity galaxies. The IR extinction curve is also shown. In the first few Myrs, the emission peaks at \lambda \sim 30-50um at later times dust self-absorption decreases the apparent grain temperatures, shifting the bulk of the emission into the submillimetre band. We successfully apply the model to the IR SED of a low metallicity (1/41 Z_\odot) dwarf galaxy SBS0335-052. We find the SED, optical properties and extinction of the star forming region to be consistent with a very young and compact starburst. We also predict the SED of another extremely low-metallicity galaxy, I Zw 18, for future observational tests. Some prospects for future observations are discussed.Comment: MNRAS in press, pages, 6 figures, using mn2e.cls. Abstract abridge

Simulations on Prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in Hokkaido on the Basis of Vole Population Dynamics

In our study, we have investigated the influence of the intermediate host population density on the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in the definitive host using a mathematical model of transmission. For the vole population (intermediate host) in Hokkaido, a model of population dynamics has been constructed in this paper which follows the seasonal and annual fluctuations. In the northeastern area, the vole density appears to fluctuate periodically with a 4 year cycle. The prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in the fox population (definitive host) can be affected by the density of vole through the fox ingesting infectious voles. Therefore we have prepared a food habit function of foxes and the logistic distribution has been proposed. The simulations which have been carried out using the mathematical model for transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis together with the vole dynamics have indicated that the prevalence in foxes is correlated and synchronized with the population dynamics of vole. In addition they have also made us recognize that it is necessary to introduce a suitable food habit function into the transmission model

Exploring Galaxy Evolution from Infrared Number Counts and Cosmic Infrared Background

Recently reported infrared (IR) galaxy number counts and cosmic infrared background (CIRB) all suggest that galaxies have experienced a strong evolution sometime in their lifetime. We statistically estimate the galaxy evolution history from these data. We find that an order of magnitude increase of the far-infrared (FIR) luminosity at redshift z = 0.5 - 1.0 is necessary to reproduce the very high CIRB intensity at 140 um reported by Hauser et al. (1998). z \sim 0.75 and decreases to, even at most, a factor of 10 toward z \sim 5, though many variants are allowed within these constraints. This evolution history also satisfies the constraints from the galaxy number counts obtained by IRAS, ISO and, roughly, SCUBA. The rapid evolution of the comoving IR luminosity density required from the CIRB well reproduces the very steep slope of galaxy number counts obtained by ISO. We also estimate the cosmic star formation history (SFH) from the obtained FIR luminosity density, considering the effect of the metal enrichment in galaxies. The derived SFH increases steeply with redshift in 0 0.75. This is consistent with the SFH estimated from the reported ultraviolet luminosity density. In addition, we present the performance of the Japanese ASTRO-F FIR galaxy survey. We show the expected number counts in the survey. We also evaluate how large a sky area is necessary to derive a secure information of galaxy evolution up to z \sim 1 from the survey, and find that at least 50 - 300 deg^2 is required.Comment: 18 pages LaTeX, PASJ in press. Abstract abridge