Clinical trials in systemic lupus erythematosus: the dilemma—Why have phase III trials failed to confirm the promising results of phase II trials?

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune rheumatic disease of unknown aetiology, characterised by the production of auto-antibodies and formation of immune complexes against self-antigens and complement activation. This inflammatory response can lead to tissue infiltration and eventually, to organ damage.Patients with SLE invariably have periods of relapse and remission. Flares can occur even when the patient is on seemingly adequate treatment, which suggests that more effective therapies are necessary for the management of SLE. Thus, trials with many drugs against different targets, such as CD22, IL-12 and IL-23 or tyrosine kinases, have been carried out in recent years.A frustrating feature of some of the biologic drugs used to treat SLE has been the reporting of successful phase II trials followed by failures of the phase III trials.In this review, we will focus on phase II and III trials carried out with epratuzumab (anti CD22), baricitinib (Janus kinases inhibitor), rigerimod (P140 peptide) and ustekinumab (IL-12 and IL-23 inhibitor) and consider the reasons for their ultimate failure to 'make the grade'. Likewise, we will try to explain the possible reasons that can influence why good results may be obtained in phase II trials and lead to undue optimism

Impact of pre-transplant time on dialysis on survival in patients with lupus nephritis

Lupus nephritis (LN) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) often leading to end-stage renal failure (ESRF) and necessitating renal transplantation (rTp). Optimal timing of rTp in SLE patients with ESRF is uncertain and could potentially affect survival. We investigated the time spent on dialysis before rTp and survival following rTp in a cohort of SLE patients. Retrospective analysis of all adult SLE patients receiving rTp over a 40-year period (1975–2015) in two tertiary UK centres. Cox proportional hazard regression and receiver operator curves (ROC) were used to determine the risk associated with time on dialysis before rTp and other potential predictors. Forty patients (age 35 ± 11 years, 34 female, 15 Caucasian, 15 Afro–Caribbean and 10 South Asian) underwent rTp. During a median follow-up of 104 months (IQR 80,145), eight (20%) patients died and the 5-year survival was 95%. Univariate analysis identified time on dialysis prior to rTp as the only potentially modifiable risk predictor of survival with a hazard ratio of 1.013 for each additional month spent on dialysis (95% CI = 1.001–1.026, p = 0.03). ROC curves demonstrated that > 24 months on dialysis had an adverse effect with sensitivity of 0.875 and specificity 0.500 for death. No other modifiable predictors were significantly associated with mortality, indicating that time on dialysis had an independent effect. Increased time on dialysis pre-transplantation is an independent modifiable risk factor of mortality in this cohort of patients with lupus nephritis

Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes

OBJECTIVES: A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset. RESULTS: Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2. CONCLUSION: Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk

Concurrent Oral 1 - Therapy of rheumatic disease: OP4. Effectiveness of Rituximab in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR)

Background: Rituximab (RTX) in combination with methotrexate (MTX) has been licensed since 2006 for the management of severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients who have failed at least one anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy. Published clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of RTX in improving both clinical symptoms and patients' physical function. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of RTX in RA patients treated in routine clinical practice by examining clinical and patient reported outcomes six months after receiving a first course of RTX. Methods: The analysis involved 550 RA patients registered with the BSRBR, who were starting RTX and were followed up for at least 6 months. Change in Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response were used to assess the clinical response while change in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score was used to assess the physical function of the patients 6 months after starting RTX. The change in DAS28 and HAQ was compared between seronegative and seropositive patients and anti-TNF naïve patients versus anti-TNF failures. The response was also compared between patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX, other non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs) or no nbDMARDs. Results: The mean (s.d.) age of the cohort was 59 (12) years and 78% of the patients were females. The patients had a mean (s.d.) of 15 (10) years of disease duration. 16% were biologic naïve while 84% were anti-TNF failures. 32% of the patients were seronegative and 68% were seropositive. The mean (95% CI) DAS28 at baseline was 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) which decreased to 4.8 (4.7, 4.9) at 6 months of follow up. 16% were EULAR good responders, 43% were moderate responders and 41% were non responders. The mean (95% CI) change in HAQ was −0.1 (−0.2, −0.1) (Table 1). The mean change in DAS28 was similar in seropositive and seronegative patients (p = 0.18) while the anti-TNF naïve patients showed a greater reduction in DAS28 scores than anti-TNF failures (p = 0.05). Patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX showed similar changes in DAS28 and HAQ compared to patients receiving RTX alone or with other nbDMARDs. Conclusions: RTX has proven to be effective in the routine clinical practice. Anti-TNF naïve patients seem to benefit more from RTX treatment than anti-TNF failures. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Oral abstracts 3: RA Treatment and outcomesO13. Validation of jadas in all subtypes of juvenile idiopathic arthritis in a clinical setting

Background: Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score (JADAS) is a 4 variable composite disease activity (DA) score for JIA (including active 10, 27 or 71 joint count (AJC), physician global (PGA), parent/child global (PGE) and ESR). The validity of JADAS for all ILAR subtypes in the routine clinical setting is unknown. We investigated the construct validity of JADAS in the clinical setting in all subtypes of JIA through application to a prospective inception cohort of UK children presenting with new onset inflammatory arthritis. Methods: JADAS 10, 27 and 71 were determined for all children in the Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS) with complete data available at baseline. Correlation of JADAS 10, 27 and 71 with single DA markers was determined for all subtypes. All correlations were calculated using Spearman's rank statistic. Results: 262/1238 visits had sufficient data for calculation of JADAS (1028 (83%) AJC, 744 (60%) PGA, 843 (68%) PGE and 459 (37%) ESR). Median age at disease onset was 6.0 years (IQR 2.6-10.4) and 64% were female. Correlation between JADAS 10, 27 and 71 approached 1 for all subtypes. Median JADAS 71 was 5.3 (IQR 2.2-10.1) with a significant difference between median JADAS scores between subtypes (p < 0.01). Correlation of JADAS 71 with each single marker of DA was moderate to high in the total cohort (see Table 1). Overall, correlation with AJC, PGA and PGE was moderate to high and correlation with ESR, limited JC, parental pain and CHAQ was low to moderate in the individual subtypes. Correlation coefficients in the extended oligoarticular, rheumatoid factor negative and enthesitis related subtypes were interpreted with caution in view of low numbers. Conclusions: This study adds to the body of evidence supporting the construct validity of JADAS. JADAS correlates with other measures of DA in all ILAR subtypes in the routine clinical setting. Given the high frequency of missing ESR data, it would be useful to assess the validity of JADAS without inclusion of the ESR. Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interest. Table 1Spearman's correlation between JADAS 71 and single markers DA by ILAR subtype ILAR Subtype Systemic onset JIA Persistent oligo JIA Extended oligo JIA Rheumatoid factor neg JIA Rheumatoid factor pos JIA Enthesitis related JIA Psoriatic JIA Undifferentiated JIA Unknown subtype Total cohort Number of children 23 111 12 57 7 9 19 7 17 262 AJC 0.54 0.67 0.53 0.75 0.53 0.34 0.59 0.81 0.37 0.59 PGA 0.63 0.69 0.25 0.73 0.14 0.05 0.50 0.83 0.56 0.64 PGE 0.51 0.68 0.83 0.61 0.41 0.69 0.71 0.9 0.48 0.61 ESR 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.4 0.6 0.85 0.43 0.7 0.5 0.53 Limited 71 JC 0.29 0.51 0.23 0.37 0.14 -0.12 0.4 0.81 0.45 0.41 Parental pain 0.23 0.62 0.03 0.57 0.41 0.69 0.7 0.79 0.42 0.53 Childhood health assessment questionnaire 0.25 0.57 -0.07 0.36 -0.47 0.84 0.37 0.8 0.66 0.4

Scope

Scope, later retitled Centerscope, was published by the Boston University Medical Center to report on events at and around the Center

25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Data From a Large International Inception Cohort: Vitamin D 25(OH)D and CVD in SLE Patients

An association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D; vitamin D) deficiency and increased cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease (CVD) has been shown in general population studies. Vitamin D deficiency has been noted in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and CVD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in SLE. The objectives of this study were to estimate the associations of 25(OH)D levels with CV risk factors and to determine whether low baseline 25(OH)D levels predict future CV events in patients participating in an international inception cohort

Patient Uncertainty Questionnaire-Rheumatology (PUQ-R): development and validation of a new patient-reported outcome instrument for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a mixed methods study

Background An in-depth qualitative exploration of uncertainty in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) led to the development of a five-domain conceptual framework of patient uncertainty in these two conditions. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a new patient-reported outcome (PRO) instrument for patient uncertainty in SLE and RA on the basis of this empirically developed conceptual framework. Methods Cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted to pre-test the initial items generated on the basis of the preliminary qualitative exploration of patient uncertainty in SLE and RA. Two separate field tests were conducted in five hospital sites to evaluate the measurement properties of the new instrument; the first to identify and form scales, and the second to assess measurement properties of the final version in an independent sample. Psychometric evaluation was conducted in line with the Rasch Measurement Theory (RMT), examining the extent to which sample to scale targeting was satisfactory, measurement scales were constructed effectively and the sample was measured successfully. Traditional psychometric techniques were also used to provide complementary analyses best understood by clinicians. Results Pre-testing supported the relevance, acceptability and comprehensibility of the initial items. Findings indicated that the Patient Uncertainty Questionnaire for Rheumatology PUQ-R instrument fulfilled the expectations of RMT to a large extent (including person separation index 0.73 – 0.91). The PUQ-R comprises 49 items across five scales; symptoms and flares (14 items), medication (11 items), trust in doctor (8 items), self-management (6 items) and impact (10 items) which further displayed excellent measurement properties as assessed against the traditional psychometric criteria (including Cronbach’s alpha 0.82 – 0.93). Conclusion The PUQ-R has been developed and evaluated specifically for patients with SLE and RA. By quantifying uncertainty, the PUQ-R has the potential to support evidence-based management programmes and research

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes